Forde-Yard Dash: Resetting the College Football Playoff Picture

Halfway through the season, we examine each contender and its road ahead to make the final four.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (goalposts sold separately in Knoxville, where the school is tacky enough to ask the fans to fork over money to pay for the replacements and/or SEC fine):

MORE DASH: Saturday to Remember | When NIL Collectives Poach | Year 2 Test

Second Quarter

Playoff Reset

After a wild weekend that thinned the unbeaten herd to nine and reduced the likely College Football Playoff contenders to fewer than 20, it’s time to take a more rigorous look at what the pecking order should be as we migrate into the back half of October. The first CFP rankings come out Nov. 1, so we’re not too far away from the milestone.

First Flight: Teams that should be in the top four today and will stay there if they keep winning.

Tennessee (11): 6–0, 3–0 in the SEC. Good wins: Alabama, LSU on the road. O.K. wins: Pittsburgh on the road, Florida. Fluff wins: Ball State, Akron. The Volunteers own the biggest win of anyone to date after taking down the Crimson Tide. This is your Dash No. 1 seed at this point.

Tennessee leads the nation in yards per game and is second in scoring, a dramatic two-season transformation under coach Josh Heupel. If you’re watching this team and feeling a 2019 LSU comparison coming on, you’re not alone. It may not be fully formed, but think LSU Lite. Hendon Hooker is Joe Burrow, a transfer flourishing in his second season at his new school. Heupel and coordinator Alex Golesh are Joe Brady, the offensive masterminds concocting the scheme to bring out the best in the quarterback. Jalin Hyatt, Bru McCoy and Cedric Tillman are Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall Jr., the wideout trio dangerous enough to keep defenses from tilting coverage toward any of them individually.

Road ahead: UT-Martin Saturday (deft scheduling after the Alabama showdown), Kentucky Oct. 29, at Georgia Nov. 5, Missouri Nov. 12, at South Carolina Nov. 19, at Vanderbilt Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record Nov. 1: 8–0. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 11–1.

Georgia (12): 7–0, 4–0 in the SEC. Good wins: Oregon. O.K. wins: South Carolina and Missouri on the road, Auburn and Vanderbilt at home. Fluff wins: Samford, Kent State. The 46-point demolition of the Ducks in the season opener continues to carry a lot of credibility. The Bulldogs have had only one uncomfortable Saturday, at Missouri. This is the No. 2 seed at the moment.

Georgia is the most complete team in the country in terms of offensive potency and defensive dominance. The Bulldogs’ scoring margin of 35.6 against Power 5 competition is the highest in FBS, and they’re the only P5 team with four or more games scoring 40 or more and four or more holding opponents to single digits. When the reigning champions have been locked in and avoiding periods of sloppy play, they’ve been dominant.

Road ahead: Open date Oct. 22, vs. Florida in Jacksonville Oct. 29, Tennessee Nov. 5, at Mississippi State Nov. 12, at Kentucky Nov. 19, Georgia Tech Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record Nov. 1: 8–0. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 13–0.

Michigan (13): 7–0, 4–0 in the Big Ten. Good wins: Penn State, Maryland. O.K. wins: at Iowa, at Indiana. Fluff wins: Colorado State, Hawaii, Connecticut. The Wolverines established themselves Saturday with their steamrolling of Penn State, adding some meat to what had been a bony résumé. Pencil in Michigan as the No. 3 seed at the moment.

The Wolverines aren’t far behind Georgia in terms of completeness, flexing muscle in several areas. This is an imposing team at the line of scrimmage—as evidenced by what they did to the Nittany Lions. Michigan is capable of trampling teams with the ground game (ninth nationally in rushing yards per game and per carry) and terrorizing opposing quarterbacks (fourth in sacks). If that formula sounds familiar, it is—that’s what carried Michigan to the CFP last year.

Road ahead: Open date Oct. 22, Michigan State Oct. 29, at Rutgers Nov. 5, Nebraska Nov. 12, Illinois Nov. 19, at Ohio State Nov. 26. Even with a rivalry game against the Spartans, this looks like pretty smooth sailing until Illinois.

Dash predicted record Nov. 1: 8–0. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 11–1.

Ohio State (14): 6–0, 3–0 in the Big Ten. Good wins: None, really. O.K. wins: Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Rutgers, at Michigan State. Fluff wins: Arkansas State, Toledo. The Buckeyes have been quite impressive, but the résumé has gotten weaker instead of stronger. The Fighting Irish win continues to lose currency; the combined records of their Big Ten opponents to date is 9–11, and they’ve played only one road game. This team is all eye test—and there is a lot of eye candy to like—and thus should be the No. 4 seed at present.

The Buckeyes are a dazzling offensive machine, leading the nation in scoring and pass efficiency, despite star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba being a nonfactor in the first half of the season. There are so many other weapons that it simply hasn’t mattered. Ohio State is tied with Tennessee nationally for most plays from scrimmage of 30 yards or longer (24). But don’t disregard a defense that has also made most of the hoped-for improvements under first-year coordinator Jim Knowles.

Road ahead: Iowa Oct. 22, at Penn State Oct. 29, at Northwestern Nov. 5, Indiana Nov. 12, at Maryland Nov. 19, Michigan Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record Nov. 1: 8–0. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 13–0.

Second flight: Teams that can win their way into the field, but wouldn’t be in it today.

Clemson (15): 7–0, 4–0 in the ACC. Good wins: at Wake Forest, North Carolina State, at Florida State. O.K. wins: Georgia Tech, at Boston College. Fluff wins: Furman, Louisiana Tech. You can make a case for putting the Tigers ahead of either Big Ten team above—it’s a close call. Beating Wake and NC State on successive weeks carries weight, though the victory over FSU may not age terribly well.

The Tigers have been less dominant than either Michigan or Ohio State, but give Dabo Swinney and his players credit. They have come through two coordinator changes as a better team this year than last year—not back to the Peak Clemson Era from 2015 to ’20, but improved from ’21. There still isn’t a lot of punch in the passing game (other than against Wake Forest), but the Tigers don’t have to rely on their defense to save them every Saturday.

Road ahead: Syracuse Oct. 22, open date Oct. 29, at Notre Dame Nov. 5, Louisville Nov. 12, Miami Nov. 19, South Carolina Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record Nov. 1: 8–0. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 13–0.

Alabama (16): 6–1, 3–1 in the SEC. Good wins: at Texas. O.K. wins: Texas A&M, at Arkansas, Vanderbilt. Fluff wins: Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe. Loss: at Tennessee. You could argue that the Crimson Tide are a play away from being undefeated with a huge victory on the road over the Volunteers. You could also argue that the Crimson Tide are two plays away from being 3–3 with losses to the Longhorns and Aggies to go along with that defeat in Knoxville.

Bottom line, this has not been a dominant Bama team and certainly has not played up to preseason expectations as the prohibitive No. 1 team. Alabama is penalty-ridden (last in the SEC), unable to force turnovers (just five in seven games) and lacking a transcendent receiving threat. But none of that will matter if the Tide win out.

Road ahead: Mississippi State Oct. 22, open date Oct. 29, at LSU Nov. 5, at Mississippi Nov. 12, Austin Peay Nov. 19, Auburn Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 11–2.

Mississippi (17): 7–0, 3–0 in the SEC. Good wins: Kentucky. O.K. wins: at Georgia Tech, at Vanderbilt, Auburn. Fluff wins: Troy, Central Arkansas, Tulsa. The Rebels have done the most important thing so far—winning all their games. But the competition has been light other than the Wildcats. Still, they have a clear Playoff path if they can rise up against a challenging final five slate.

Ole Miss is the most committed running team in the SEC and one of the most committed in the nation. The question is how the Rebels would fare if forced into a situation of throwing it 35–40 times a game against a good opponent. The defense has been exposed a bit in SEC play as well.

Road ahead: At LSU Oct. 22, at Texas A&M Oct. 29, open date Nov. 5, Alabama Nov. 12, at Arkansas Nov. 19, Mississippi State Nov. 24.

Dash predicted record Nov. 1: 8–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 10–2.

TCU (18): 6–0, 3–0 in the Big 12. Good wins: at Kansas, Oklahoma State. O.K. wins: Oklahoma, at SMU. Fluff wins: at Colorado, Tarleton State. The Horned Frogs have prevailed in exciting consecutive showdowns against undefeated opponents, beating Kansas and Oklahoma State by a combined 10 points. The Big 12 is balanced and competitive, but there is some question whether that is due to a collective high floor and low ceiling.

Under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, the Frogs have flourished offensively. Quentin Johnston looks like an All-American receiver, and Max Duggan is a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate. There were good players on the roster Dykes inherited, but the program needed a jolt of new energy, and he’s provided it. We’ll see whether the defense is good enough down the stretch.

Road ahead: Kansas State Oct. 22, at West Virginia Oct. 29, Texas Tech Nov. 5, at Texas Nov. 12, at Baylor Nov. 19, Iowa State Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 10–2.

Third flight: If they win out, they could get there—but might need help in terms of teams ahead of them losing.

UCLA (19): 6–0, 3–0 in the Pac-12. Good wins: Utah, Washington. O.K. wins: South Alabama. Fluff wins: Bowling Green, Alabama State, at Colorado. The Bruins had an extremely soft nonconference schedule, and their only road game was at Colorado, so it’s about to get real. The back-to-back wins over the Huskies and Utes were nice, and proof of the progress in Year 5 under Chip Kelly.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Kelly have been joined at the hip for five seasons, and the mutual growth has been a pretty cool thing to watch. DTR currently is fifth nationally in pass efficiency and seventh nationally in total offense yards per play at 8.49. Transfer additions Zach Charbonnet at running back and Jake Bobo at receiver have rounded out an explosive offense.

Road ahead: At Oregon Oct. 22, Stanford Oct. 29, at Arizona State Nov. 5, Arizona Nov. 12, USc Nov. 19, at California Nov. 25.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 10–2.

Syracuse (20): 6–0, 3–0 in the ACC. Good wins: Purdue, North Carolina State. O.K. wins: Louisville, Virginia. Fluff wins: at Connecticut, Wagner. Hey, the Orange are a great story—but both their big wins came with asterisks attached. The Wolfpack were without preseason ACC Player of the Year Devin Leary, and the Purdue game was the result of a last-minute penalty blizzard the likes of which have never been seen. This great story comes with an expiration date.

Quarterback Garrett Shrader and running back Sean Tucker have keyed the offense, but the biggest factor in the Syracuse season has been its dramatic improvement on defense under second-year coordinator Tony White. Cuse leads the ACC in points and yards allowed after being an abysmal defensive program for most of Dino Babers’s tenure.

Road ahead: At Clemson Oct. 22, Notre Dame Oct. 29, at Pittsburgh Nov. 5, Florida State Nov. 12, at Wake Forest Nov. 19, at Boston College Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 8–4.

Fourth flight: They’ve got a chance but most likely would need significant help.

Wake Forest: 5–1, 1–1 in the ACC. Road ahead: Boston College Oct. 22, at Louisville Oct. 29, at NC State Nov. 5, North Carolina Nov. 12, Syracuse Nov. 19, at Duke Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 10–2.

Oregon: 5–1, 3–0 in the Pac-12. Road ahead: UCLA Oct. 22, at California Oct. 29, at Colorado Nov. 5, Washington Nov. 12, Utah Nov. 19, at Oregon State Nov. 25.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 11–2.

Oklahoma State: 5–1, 2–1 in the Big 12. Road ahead: Texas Oct. 22, at Kansas State Oct. 29, at Kansas Nov. 5, Iowa State Nov. 12, at Oklahoma Nov. 19, West Virginia Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 6–2. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 11–2.

USC: 6–1, 4–0 in the Pac-12. Road ahead: Open date Oct. 22, at Arizona Oct. 29, California Nov. 5, Colorado Nov. 11, at UCLA Nov. 19, Notre Dame Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 11–2.

Penn State: 5–1, 2–1 in the Big Ten. Road ahead: Minnesota Oct. 22, Ohio State Oct. 29, at Indiana Nov. 5, Maryland Nov. 12, at Rutgers Nov. 19, Michigan State Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 6–2. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 9–3.

Kansas State: 5–1, 3–0 in the Big 12. Road ahead: At TCU Oct. 22, Oklahoma State Oct. 29, Texas Nov. 5, at Baylor Nov. 12, at West Virginia Nov. 19, Kansas Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 5–3. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 8–4.

Illinois: 6–1, 3–1 in the Big Ten. Road ahead: Open date Oct. 22, at Nebraskas Oct. 29, Michigan State Nov. 5, Purdue Nov. 12, at Michigan Nov. 19, at Northwestern Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 9–3.

North Carolina: 6–1, 3–0 in the ACC. Road ahead: Open date Oct. 22, Pittsburgh Oct. 29, at Virginia Nov. 5, at Wake Forest Nov. 12, Georgia Tech Nov. 19, NC State Nov. 25.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 7–1. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 10–3.

Texas: 5–2, 3–1 in the Big 12. (To be clear, the only reason the two-loss Longhorns are on here is for the potential of a Quinn Ewers injury mulligan.) Road ahead: At Oklahoma State Oct. 22, open date Oct. 29, at Kansas State Nov. 5, TCU Nov. 12, at Kansas Nov. 19, Baylor Nov. 26.

Dash predicted record on Nov. 1: 5–3. Dash predicted record on Selection Sunday: 8–4.

MORE DASH: Saturday to Remember | When NIL Collectives Poach | Year 2 Test