Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Preseason Rankings: Top-Heavy Intrigue Led by UCLA

The Bruins may be leaving for the Big Ten in the future, but for now they headline things out West.

As part of its 2022–23 men’s basketball preseason coverage, Sports Illustrated is rolling out previews for each of the top 10 conferences. Next up is the Pac-12.

A year after becoming the story of the men’s NCAA tournament in 2021 with three teams in the Elite Eight, the Pac-12 had a decidedly more understated presence last March. Only three teams earned bids, and none made it past the Sweet 16. Arizona appeared to be the league’s best chance at ending a 25-year national championship drought but was denied a deep run once again.

Entering this season—the penultimate ride before the Los Angeles schools bolt for the Big Ten—the teams at the top share the same expectations. UCLA and Arizona appear poised to be in the mix for high seeds once more, while Oregon seems to be in a position to return to the Big Dance after a disappointing 2021–22 campaign. Down the line, USC and Stanford are intriguing squads a tier below the top dogs, while the teams in the middle have an interesting mix of transfers. But for a conference that’s often maligned for lacking the requisite thump at the top, it’s encouraging the Pac-12’s brand-name programs appear healthy and primed to make some noise.

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SI’s picks for …

Conference Player of the Year: Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona

Newcomer of the Year: Amari Bailey, UCLA

Dark-Horse Team to Watch: Stanford

First-Team All-Pac-12:

Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona
Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA
Tyger Campbell, UCLA
Drew Peterson, USC
Harrison Ingram, Stanford

SI’s predicted order of finish:

1. UCLA

Though they didn’t reach the heights from their surprise 2021 Final Four berth, the Bruins had a successful campaign in Mick Cronin’s third season. On the strength of a loaded and experienced backcourt, the pieces are in place for another banner year. Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell have a combined 185 career starts, while five-star prospect Amari Bailey has first-round draft pick potential. Jaylen Clark and David Singleton round out the group and give UCLA perhaps the best guard depth in the conference. If freshman big man Adem Bona can make an instant impact, this could be Cronin’s best squad.

Postseason Projection: Title Contender

Can Jaquez lead UCLA back to another Final Four? :: Darren Yamashita/USA TODAY Sports

2. Arizona

Tommy Lloyd took an experienced but underachieving roster and molded it into a national title contender overnight. Now, the task will be a bit more challenging. Gone are so many key contributors from a season ago—Bennedict Mathurin, Christian Koloko and Dalen Terry, to name a few—but the cupboard is far from bare. Azuolas Tubelis is an experienced, versatile big man who impacts both ends of the floor and is ready to take the lead. Reigning Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year Pelle Larsson will assume a larger role, and Texas transfer Courtney Ramey brings tons of experience and consistent shooting to the backcourt. The Wildcats won’t sneak up on anybody like they did last year.

Postseason Projection: Second Weekend Upside

3. Oregon

Dana Altman has built a career out of being able to get a roster loaded with new players to jell quickly and make noise in March. But that wasn’t the case last season, with the Ducks missing the NCAA tournament for just the second time in the past nine years the event’s been held. Oregon appears to have the pieces in place to return to the Big Dance this time around, thanks to a core of returning players led by guard Will Richardson, who’s averaged 10.2 points on 39.2% shooting from deep across 115 career games. This year’s team should be stout in the frontcourt, with experienced bigs Quincy Guerrier and N’Faly Dante back in tow. Five-star freshman Kel’el Ware and former McDonald’s All-American Nate Bittle have enormous potential, and could raise the ceiling for this year’s team if either can develop into reliable contributors.

Postseason Projection: Safe to Dance

4. USC

Entering his 10th season with the USC program, Andy Enfield has leaned on length and frontcourt production in recent years, mostly to great success. With Isaiah Mobley and Chevez Goodwin gone, this year’s team looks to be far more guard-oriented. Seniors Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson should lead the team in scoring, while sophomore Reese Dixon-Waters came on strong at the end of last season. Five-star freshman big man Vince Iwuchukwu was expected to make a big impact, though his playing future is uncertain after he was hospitalized with a heart condition over the summer. The rest of the freshman class is highly touted, though, with Kijani Wright, Tre White and Oziyah Sellers expected to be a part of the rotation. USC is looking to make its third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, which would tie the longest streak in program history.

Postseason Projection: On the Bubble

5. Stanford

Jerod Haase enters his seventh season on The Farm still in search of his first NCAA tournament berth. With last year’s core back for 2022–23, there’s reason to believe the wait could finally be over. Harrison Ingram is a first-round talent, and leading scorer Spencer Jones is a difficult matchup at 6'7" and has the ability to shoot from long range. In total, six of the Cardinal’s top seven scorers from a season ago return, and Davidson transfer Michael Jones will add firepower in the backcourt. The ingredients are there for a breakthrough, but this could be Haase’s last chance to right the ship.

Postseason Projection: On the Bubble

6. Washington

Speaking of coaches on the hot seat, this feels like a pivotal season for Mike Hopkins in Seattle. The Huskies bottomed out for two straight seasons following their 2018–19 regular-season conference title—coming in last place in ’20 and 11th in ’21—but enjoyed a mild bounce-back last year with a fifth-place finish. Still, considerable progress will be needed for Hopkins to relieve some pressure. To get there, he’ll rely on experienced returners Jamal Bey and PJ Fuller II to go along with an interesting mix of transfers. The headliner in that group is forward Keion Brooks Jr., who made 33 starts and averaged 10.2 points per game for Kentucky last season. Also in the mix are intraconference transfers Noah Williams (Washington State) and Franck Kepnang (Oregon).

Postseason Projection: NIT Bound

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7. Washington State

The Cougars lost their top four scorers from last year’s team, which turned in the program’s first 20-win campaign in 11 years. Pac-12 all-freshman selection Mouhamed Gueye will be counted on to assume a bigger role, as will TJ Bamba. But the key player could be transfer Justin Powell, who will be on his third team in three seasons after transferring out of Auburn and Tennessee. He’s a career 40.6% three-point shooter but has not been able to hit a starring stride yet at the college level.

Postseason Projection: NIT Bound

8. Colorado

Colorado loses a lot of experience from last year’s team, particularly in the interior with Jabari Walker and Evan Battey moving on. This season’s squad could be more guard-dependent, with KJ Simpson returning and a pair of senior transfers in Ethan Wright (Princeton) and Jalen Gabbidon (Yale). Tad Boyle has guided the Buffaloes to four consecutive 20-win seasons, which will be a tough bar to clear this time around. Colorado has made just one appearance in the past five NCAA tournaments.

Postseason Projection: NIT Bound

9. Arizona State

Bobby Hurley enters the 2022–23 season feeling a bit of the desert heat. After three straight 20-win seasons from ’17–20, the Sun Devils have gone 25–31 over the past two years, finishing in the bottom half of the league both times. The key to success this season will be the health of Marcus Bagley. The former blue-chip prospect has battled injuries that have limited him to just 15 college games in two years. Last year’s leading scorer, DJ Horne, will be counted on to provide offense on the perimeter, as will Michigan transfer Frankie Collins.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

10. Utah

The Utes went 4–16 in conference play last season under first-year coach Craig Smith, the program’s worst mark since its first season in the Pac-12. There’s an experienced core returning to Salt Lake City, though, with three of the team’s top five scorers back. That group is headlined by center Branden Carlson, a second-team all-conference selection from a year ago who averaged 13.6 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. Marco Anthony, Utah’s 6'6" senior guard, gives Smith good length and production on the perimeter.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

11. Cal

Cal has yet to rediscover its footing as a program ever since the disastrous Wyking Jones hire, which turned in a combined 5–31 conference record across two wayward seasons. Mark Fox hasn’t managed much better, and making meaningful strides in his fourth year looks to be a tall task. The Golden Bears lost their top three scorers from last year, and fourth-leading scorer Jalen Celestine will not be ready for the start of the season while recovering from knee surgery. New to the team is transfer guard Devin Askew, a former top-50 prospect who made 20 starts as a freshman for Kentucky in 2020–21. He transferred to Texas last season and took a step back in production, and offers some intriguing potential as he’s now on his third team in three years.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

12. Oregon State

Few crash-and-burns were as spectacular as Oregon State’s last season. A year after making a miracle Elite Eight run, the Beavers totally and completely fell apart, going 3–28 to set program records for most losses and lowest winning percentage (.097). So there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Not many key members return from last year’s squad, presenting the opportunity for ninth-year coach Wayne Tinkle to hit the reset button. It’s hard to envision another 28-loss season, but the Beavers are comfortably earmarked for the bottom of the standings.

Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year

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