Forde-Yard Dash: Ranking Every Past Opening Playoff Rankings

The teams that start out in the top four don’t always finish there, with some years being more turbulent than others.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Auburn gonna Auburn:

MORE DASH: Melee in Big House | Six CFP Q’s | Yormark Delivers

Fourth Quarter

Ranking the Rankings

For eight years now, the College Football Playoff selection committee has served up its first set of rankings right around this date. Roughly five weeks later, the committee delivers its last set. Things always change in that interregnum, but not as much as you might think.

In order to figure out how much stock to put in the committee’s opening top 25 when it drops Tuesday night, The Dash crunched some numbers. Here are the findings:

Nineteen of the 32 CFP participants were in the top four in the initial rankings, an average of 2.4 teams per year. So you can reasonably expect at least half the top four on Tuesday still being there come Selection Sunday in December.

There has never been a year when none of the opening top four eventually made the field. The fewest is one out of four. There has been one year when all of the opening top quartet made the field.

In the 2020 season, Alabama and Ohio State were both part of the initial top four. They later met in January’s title game :: Kyle Robertson/USA TODAY Network

The team ranked lowest in the first top 25 to make the field was 16th. Only one team has gone from the top four in the first rankings to unranked on Selection Sunday. Only once has the eventual national champion not been in the top four in the initial CFP rankings.

Here is a Dash ranking of the opening rankings, from the chalkiest field to the most turbulent:

2020 (31). Teams in the original rankings that were still there at the end: four out of four.

First rankings: 1. Alabama, 2. Notre Dame, 3. Clemson, 4. Ohio State.

Selection Sunday: 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Ohio State, 4. Notre Dame.

Champion: Alabama.

The amazing part of 2020 being the most stable of rankings is that it was the least stable of seasons—the pandemic created upheaval the likes of which hadn’t been seen in college football since World War II.

2018 (32). Teams in the original ranking that were still there at the end: three out of four.

First rankings: 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3, LSU, 4, Notre Dame.

Selection Sunday: 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Notre Dame, 4. Oklahoma.

Moved in: Oklahoma, from seventh.

Moved out: LSU, to 11th.

Champion: Clemson.

The top two teams were far ahead of everyone else the entire year. And then Clemson was far ahead of Alabama in the title game.

2017 (33). Teams in the original ranking that were still there at the end: three out of four.

First rankings: 1. Georgia, 2. Alabama, 3. Notre Dame, 4. Clemson.

Selection Sunday: 1, Clemson, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Georgia, 4. Alabama.

Moved in: Oklahoma, from fifth.

Moved out: Notre Dame, to 14th.

Champion: Alabama.

In terms of how the Playoff unfolded, the first rankings in 2017 were more accurate than the last, since Georgia and Alabama met in a memorable title game that the Crimson Tide won on an overtime bomb from Tua Tagovailoa to DeVonta Smith.

2019 (34). Teams in the original ranking that were still there at the end: two out of four.

First rankings: 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Alabama, 4. Penn State.

Selection Sunday: 1. LSU, 2. Ohio State, 3. Clemson, 4. Oklahoma.

Moved in: Clemson, from fifth; Oklahoma, from ninth.

Moved out: Alabama, to 13th; Penn State, to 10th.

Champion: LSU.

Whoever finished fourth was going to get torched by the Tigers in the semifinals, and the Sooners played the part. The other semi, between Ohio State and Clemson, was one of the most dramatic in a Playoff history littered with mismatches.

2021 (35). Teams in the original ranking that were still there at the end: two out of four.

First rankings: 1. Georgia, 2. Alabama, 3. Michigan State, 4. Oregon.

Selection Sunday: 1. Alabama, 2. Michigan, 3. Georgia, 4. Cincinnati.

Moved in: Cincinnati, from sixth; Michigan, from seventh.

Moved out: Michigan Sate, to 10th; Oregon, to 14th.

Champion: Georgia.

The Bearcats made history and the Wolverines finally cracked the bracket, but it was all SEC from there.

2016 (36). Teams in the original ranking that were still there at the end: two out of four.

First rankings: 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Michigan, 4. Texas A&M.

Selection Sunday: 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Ohio State, 4. Washington.

Moved in: Ohio State, from sixth; Washington, from fifth.

Moved out: Michigan, to sixth; Texas A&M, to unranked.

Champion: Clemson.

The 2015 and ’16 seasons were peak Alabama-Clemson rivalry, yielding consecutive championship game thrillers.

2015 (37). Teams in the original ranking that were still there at the end: two out of four.

First rankings: 1. Clemson, 2. LSU, 3. Ohio State, 4. Alabama.

Selection Sunday: 1. Clemson, 2. Alabama, 3. Michigan State, 4. Oklahoma.

Moved in: Michigan State, from seventh; Oklahoma, from 15th.

Moved out: LSU, to 20th; Ohio State, to seventh.

Champion: Alabama.

Reigning champion Ohio State’s upset loss in the rain to Michigan State tilted the Playoff’s balance of power to the South, and it’s been there ever since.

2014 (38). Teams in the original ranking that were still there at the end: one out of four.

First rankings: 1. Mississippi State, 2. Florida State, 3. Auburn, 4. Mississippi.

Selection Sunday: 1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State.

Moved in: Oregon, from fifth; Alabama, from sixth; Ohio State, from 16th.

Moved out: Mississippi State, to seventh; Auburn, to 19th; Mississippi, to ninth.

Champion: Ohio State.

The first year of the Playoff era was a wild one, with big movement up and down. The Buckeyes barely got into the bracket and then won the whole thing. The Mississippi schools had their moment and haven’t been heard from since. We haven’t had a year like it since.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week

Scott Satterfield (39), Louisville. The fourth-year coach has resuscitated his on-the-rocks tenure with three straight victories, most recently a shocking blowout of No. 10 Wake Forest. The Cardinals (5–3) forced a ridiculous eight turnovers in the game—including five straight possessions in the third quarter, two of them pick-sixes. A victory Saturday against James Madison would make Louisville bowl eligible, and one more win would lock up its first winning season since 2019. With a highly ranked recruiting class committed, that likely would be enough to earn Satterfield a fifth season.

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work

Mike Gundy (40), Oklahoma State. Rarely does a top-10 team flop as completely as Gundy’s Cowboys did Saturday at Kansas State, losing 48–0. Oklahoma State was a banged up team coming off a couple of big games, but there isn’t any justifying laying down like that. “We got our ass kicked,” Gundy said, accurately, on Monday. It was the Cowboys’ first shutout loss since 2009.

Point After

The Dash is going into overtime to tout Legends (41) in Champaign. Grab a Legends Lager, made locally by Riggs Beer Company, and thank The Dash later.

MORE DASH: Melee in Big House | Six CFP Q’s | Yormark Delivers