SI’s Preseason Expert Predictions: Men’s Final Four, National Champ and More

Plus, we make our picks for Player of the Year, mid-major to watch and overrated teams.

The 2022–23 men’s college basketball season is nearly upon us, with the action kicking off Monday, Nov. 7 and running all the way through April 3’s national championship game. Ahead of the year’s debut, Sports Illustrated’s hoops writers are peering into their crystal balls to make predictions for what will unfold over the next five months.

Who will earn one of the coveted Final Four spots in Houston? Which team will cut down the nets? Who are we not buying the preseason hype on? We address a variety of topics across the sport as we look forward to what’s sure to be another compelling season in college hoops.

After UNC’s surprise Final Four run, the Tar Heels look primed for more :: Mitchell Leff/USA TODAY Sports

Pat Forde’s Final Four picks

North Carolina: With 73% of the team’s minutes played returning from the national runner-up, there is every reason to expect that the Tar Heels will play like the team that stormed through March and not the disjointed bunch that flailed through the first four months of the season. They’ve got the talent and the hunger.

Gonzaga: Drew Timme’s 27th year of college basketball will end with another trip to the Final Four. Julian Strawther and Nolan Hickman are ready to step up as part of the usual balanced supporting cast. Rasir Bolton is back. Mark Few has this thing on autopilot.

Houston: Hometown Final Four team? Yep. For once, the preseason rankings are high enough that Houston won’t be sneaking up from off the radar, but that won’t matter. Kelvin Sampson’s teams never play with a sense of entitlement. He has a pair of big-time recruits in Terrance Arceneaux and Jarace Walker to work into a veteran rotation.

Arkansas: Eric Musselman’s massive freshman class gives the Razorbacks arguably as much raw talent as anyone in the country. Add in the usual Musselman finds from the transfer market, and he’s got the team to break through the Elite Eight ceiling and play in the program’s first Final Four since 1995.

Kevin Sweeney’s Final Four picks

North Carolina: The Heels have star power, the most talented starting five in the sport and experience from last season’s run to the title game.

Gonzaga: Drew Timme’s return means the Bulldogs aren’t going anywhere, and Mark Few can surround their star big with plenty of shooting from the likes of Julian Strawther and Rasir Bolton.

Houston: Marcus Sasser is college basketball’s best guard, and freshman Jarace Walker is tailor-made for Kelvin Sampson’s system on both ends.

Kentucky: The Wildcats will get redemption for last year’s loss to Saint Peter’s behind Oscar Tshiebwe’s dominance up front.

Jason Jordan’s Final Four picks

North Carolina: The Tar Heels aren’t No. 1 by mistake, with the top big in preseason ACC Player of the Year Armando Bacot and the top backcourt in RJ Davis and Caleb Love in the stable. Add in, arguably, the top transfer in the infamous portal in Pete Nance, a 6'11" three-point marksman (45% last season), and Hubert Davis’s squad seems like an easy pick for Houston.

Houston: The Cougars’ suffocating style on the defensive end tends to overshadow their talented guard trio of Marcus Sasser, Tramon Mark and Jamal Shead. Sasser and Mark were injured for last season’s Elite Eight run; their presence makes Kelvin Sampson’s crew a nightmare of a matchup every night.

Kansas: Sure, the defending champs lost seven seniors from last year’s squad, but with talented freshmen like MJ Rice, Gradey Dick and Ernest Udeh Jr., plus top transfer portal prize Kevin McCullar Jr. (Texas Tech) in the fold, Bill Self has all the ingredients to lift another banner in Lawrence. Experience and role acceptance will be vital to bring the improbable back-to-back run to fruition.

Baylor: Adam Flagler and freshman phenom Keyonte George should form one of the most lethal backcourts in the country; Flo Thamba is back to anchor the frontcourt; and top transfers Jalen Bridges (West Virginia) and Caleb Lohner (BYU) will give Scott Drew much-needed experience. The key will be how fast LJ Cryer and Langston Love acclimate coming off injuries from last season.

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Jeremy Woo’s Final Four picks

Houston: Houston has depth and experience and has been as reliable as any program over the past few years. I love Marcus Sasser.

Baylor: The Bears kind of fall in the same category for me, with guards I trust and an infrastructure that works, although I’m slightly concerned about their interior depth.

Kentucky: The Wildcats should have better guard play this season and should have hopefully learned from last season’s disastrous ending; Cason Wallace is a stud.

Texas: Yeah, I’m picking three Texas teams in a Texas Final Four, whatever. I’m pretty optimistic about the Longhorns after watching them hand it to Arkansas in an exhibition Saturday.

Who’s your dark-horse Final Four pick?

Forde: Arizona. Wildcats lost a couple of studs to the pros off last year’s No. 1 seed, but return several others and get impact transfer Courtney Ramey from Texas in the mix as well. Tommy Lloyd established his style very quickly and won’t take much of a step back in Year 2.

Sweeney: Texas. The pieces don’t fit together perfectly on paper, but this is one of the most talented rosters in college hoops if it all comes together right.

Jordan: Tennessee. Indiana State transfer Tyreke Key has been all the talk in the preseason and should provide a consistent scoring punch for Rick Barnes in the backcourt. Freshman forward Julian Phillips is as good as advertised, Olivier Nkamhoua looks to be back to form, and Jonas Aidoo can add depth in the paint. If Josiah-Jordan James is ready to go and Barnes’s crew can find consistency, it may be able to find a spot in Houston.

Woo: Tennessee is just on the cusp of the AP top 10 and this may be cheating, but the Vols have got continuity and a solid defense and good guards. Sounds good to me.

National Player of the Year:

Forde: ​​Drew Timme, Gonzaga
Sweeney: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
Jordan: Armando Bacot, North Carolina
Woo: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky

National Coach of the Year:

Forde: Jamie Dixon, TCU
Sweeney: Greg McDermott, Creighton
Jordan: Kelvin Sampson, Houston
Woo: Kelvin Sampson, Houston

Who will win the national championship?

Forde: North Carolina finishes the deal this time, after coming within an ankle sprain of winning it all last season. Experience, depth and a coach who will only get better in his second season.

Sweeney: North Carolina. The Heels were far from perfect for most of last year and do have to prove their growth in March (particularly on defense) wasn’t a fluke. But this group is loaded, with two high-level guards in RJ Davis and Caleb Love to go with Armando Bacot in the middle. Plus, this group is deeper than it was last year, thanks to the addition of Pete Nance and the continued growth of young players like Puff Johnson. So many different guys on this team can hurt you, a dangerous recipe come March.

Jordan: North Carolina. Let’s not overcomplicate this thing; the Tar Heels have arguably the best big man (Bacot), best backcourt (Love and Davis), experienced role players and capable backups. The only pause I have is that last year we didn’t see them coming; now we do. Big difference.

Woo: Houston is admittedly kind of a default pick, and the Final Four is also in Houston. But this feels like a fairly wide-open year, and the Cougars check the right boxes as a contender. Marcus Sasser is a big shotmaker who probably wouldn’t still be in college had he not gotten hurt last year. There are not many holes on this team. If Jarace Walker has the type of season he’s capable of having, this team will be a load to deal with.

Are expectations too high for the Hoosiers? :: Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports

I’m not buying the hype on …

Forde: Tennessee. The Volunteers will be good in the regular season. They will flame out in the NCAAs. Same song, different verse.

Sweeney: Indiana. Should the Hoosiers be improved from last year? Absolutely. But a jump from that to Big Ten favorites and national contenders seems a bit steep. For as good as Xavier Johnson was down the stretch last season, his career to date has been defined by inconsistency. And for IU to take the next step, it needs elite PG play from Johnson and a big year from freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino on the wing to go with Trayce Jackson-Davis up front. Early-season tests against Xavier, North Carolina, Arizona and Kansas should serve as a good proving ground.

Jordan: Indiana. Sorry, Hoosiers, I just can’t let it go; I’m petty that way. I know you’ve got Trayce-Jackson Davis back with a bunch of starters and a talented group of freshmen, but that Saint Mary’s molly-whopping last March stung me. I haven’t healed.

Woo: Gonzaga. The Zags will probably win their league again, but I just don’t know how they construct a Final Four–caliber defense without Chet Holmgren to cover for Drew Timme. I don’t totally buy the guard situation here, either. Feels like an in-between year for these guys.

Mid-major team to watch

Forde: Saint Louis. The A-10 will be strong at the top with the Billikens and Dayton. Saint Louis has a great one-two punch with Javonte Perkins and point guard Yuri Collins, plus picks up Missouri transfer Javon Pickett.

Sweeney: San Diego State. The Aztecs were elite on defense last season (second in the country in defensive efficiency, per KenPom) and should be similarly ferocious on that end this season with rim protector Nathan Mensah back. Plus, the offense should be much improved thanks to transfer additions Darrion Trammell (Seattle) and Jaedon LeDee (TCU). This team may not be as good as the SDSU team that was on track for a top-two seed in the NCAA tournament in 2020, but this year’s Aztecs still have Final Four upside.

Jordan: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles are picked to win the Summit League with four starters returning, highlighted by point guard Max Abmas. He’ll contend for the sport’s scoring title this season.

Woo: Dayton. There’s enough talent here for the Flyers to spend a lot of this season ranked. This isn’t a deep-cut pick or anything, but I’m curious.

One bold prediction

Forde: The tide will turn back against NCAA tournament expansionists, and the bracket will remain at 68 teams ... for now.

Sweeney: Illinois emerges as the Big Ten’s best team and makes a deep NCAA tournament run. The Illini have remade their team into a versatile, positionless squad whose strength will be its wings. It’s a much different recipe than the bully-ball style that so many Big Ten teams have employed over the years, including what the Illini did with Kofi Cockburn in the middle. Brad Underwood’s team has some questions to answer at point guard, but its length and athleticism at every position combined with impressive overall talent should make this squad dangerous.

Jordan: Florida will win the SEC. Admit it; you did a triple take and then cleaned the glasses you’re not even wearing. First-year coach Todd Golden has the talent to make me look like a genius, but the question is whether he can get his transfer-heavy roster to jell early on.

Woo: North Carolina pulls a 2020–21 UCLA and doesn’t quite recapture its Final Four magic.