ESPN’s FPI Is Giving Ohio State An 88% Chance of Making The Playoff

Despite a multiple score home loss to Michigan on Saturday, ESPN’s metrics believe Ohio State has a high probability of making the College Football Playoff.

Despite a 45–23 loss on Saturday at the hands of archrival No. 3 Michigan, one metric believes that the Buckeyes still have an excellent chance of making the College Football Playoff.

ESPN’s Football Power Index not only has the odds that the Buckeyes reach the playoffs at greater than 50%, but believes they have a strong likelihood of making the playoff by pinning their chances at 88%.

Things are about to get interesting after a wild Rivalry Week 👀 pic.twitter.com/yyjT5PQvme

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 27, 2022

On the surface, this doesn’t make a ton of sense. 

Top-ranked Georgia took care of business on Saturday against Georgia Tech and will now head to the SEC championship game with an undefeated record at 12–0. 

Michigan will enter the Big Ten championship as a heavy favorite against Purdue. 

TCU also finished the regular season with an undefeated record and will now get a rematch with Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs beat the Wildcats by 10 in late October.

Finally, one-loss USC will get a rematch against Utah in the Pac-12 championship. The Trojans lost to the Utes 43–42 on October 15 for their only defeat of the season.

If all four of those teams win next weekend, it seems likely that these four will make the College Football Playoff, as the committee has stated in the past that conference champions will receive a boost in the selection process. If USC loses, that’s where the conversation opens up to who the fourth team could be. If TCU loses, the possibility of the Horned Frogs missing the College Football Playoff is not a slam dunk, but certainly a possibility.

ESPN believes that Ohio State is in the best position to capture one of the four playoff spots should one of the teams in front of them stumble. 

Either way, the Buckeyes’ destiny is out of their hands, as they’ll have to sweat out the results next weekend after getting drubbed at home on Saturday to complete their regular season.

• Buckeyes Now: What They’re Saying About Ohio State’s Loss To Michigan 

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