SI:AM | What’s at Stake in the Conference Championship Games

Plus, the secret to a successful penalty shootout.

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. If you plan your Saturday right, you can watch the USMNT’s game against the Netherlands and roll right into 12 straight hours of college football.

In today’s SI:AM:

🏈 An injured Heisman hopeful

⚽ The key to winning a penalty shootout

🇺🇸 The latest on Christian Pulisic

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Playoff spots are on the line

College football fans, rejoice. The arguments over College Football Playoff résumés are almost over—but there’s still time for some more drama. Each of the top four teams (Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC) play tomorrow in conference title games, but the degree to which their playoff spots are in jeopardy with a loss varies.

Let’s break it all down.

SEC: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 LSU (4 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS)

This game looks a lot less dangerous for the Bulldogs after the Tigers got stomped last weekend by a Texas A&M team that isn’t even headed to a bowl. Considering that Georgia is still undefeated, a loss to a talented LSU team shouldn’t knock the Bulldogs all the way out of the playoff but they’ll likely need to win to maintain their No. 1 spot.

Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan vs. Purdue (8 p.m. ET Saturday on Fox)

The Boilermakers shouldn’t pose too much of an issue for Michigan but even in the event of an upset, the undefeated Wolverines probably deserve a playoff spot.

The thing to watch here is how the Michigan offense looks without running back Blake Corum. The Heisman candidate will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery on his knee. The good news for the Wolverines is that Donovan Edwards, who ran for 216 yards on 22 carries against Ohio State with Corum sidelined, is a more-than-capable replacement. That’s why Richard Johnson writes that, even though Corum is an integral part of the Michigan offense, “this isn’t something that tanks its chances at a Big Ten or national championship.”

Big 12: No. 3 TCU vs. No. 10 Kansas State (12 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC)

TCU could be in a bit of danger here. K-State is a really good team that is hitting its stride at the right time. The Wildcats have won their last three games by scores of 47–27, 48–31 and 31–3. The Horned Frogs are only favored by 2.5 points at SI Sportsbook.

The question is what the committee would do if TCU loses this game—especially if it loses badly. The logical thing would be to say that, like Georgia and Michigan, TCU, with its undefeated regular season, deserves to be a playoff team. But TCU does not have the same name brand recognition that Georgia and Michigan do. It isn’t hard to envision a scenario in which the committee looks at a TCU résumé that’s missing a conference title and includes several close victories and decides one-loss Ohio State or two-loss Alabama is more deserving of the final spot. It would be a travesty, but would you put it past the committee?

Pac-12: No. 4 USC vs. No. 11 Utah (8 p.m. ET tonight on Fox)

This is the best chance for some CFP chaos. USC’s lone loss this season came at Utah on Oct. 15 in a 43–42 thriller that the Utes won by going for two after scoring a touchdown with 48 seconds to play. Unlike the top three teams, USC would likely be out of playoff contention if it loses its second game of the season here.

No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Alabama (sitting at home)

This is where things get really wacky. If either TCU or USC drops out of the top four, who should replace them? It might seem obvious that the No. 5 team (Ohio State) should slide up but even though the Buckeyes and No. 6 Alabama have both completed their seasons, the playoff committee is not committed to putting the 11–1 Buckeyes in the field over the 10–2 Tide. Committee chairman Boo Corrigan said after this week’s rankings came out that it’s possible Alabama could be ahead of Ohio State in the final rankings, even though neither team is playing this weekend. This year’s playoff race has already been perhaps the most entertaining in the history of the format, and there’s still time for more chaos.

The best of Sports Illustrated

As the World Cup knockout stage begins tomorrow, today’s Daily Cover, by Ben Lyttleton, takes an in-depth look at the penalty shootout:

I began investigating whether there were ways to improve a team’s chances in a penalty shootout, spending the next two years traveling the world seeking to unravel the mystery of the perfect penalty kick. I spoke to players who had scored penalties and missed penalties; to a player from every team that had beaten England on penalties. I spoke to goalkeepers and coaches, doctors and psychologists. I even spoke to golfers, tennis players, rugby kickers and gridiron coaches, all of whom practice specifically for high-pressure moments.

Pat Forde writes that tonight’s Pac-12 championship game is indicative of the conference’s rebirth after spending years as the Power 5’s least powerful league. … The headline on Brian Straus’s story from Christian Pulisic’s press conference is my favorite in a long time. … Kevin Sweeney has five takeaways from the men’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

Gregg Berhalter is hopeful that Pulisic will be able to play tomorrow against the Netherlands. … Germany was knocked out of the World Cup after a drama-filled day that also saw Japan beat Spain. … Police in Florida made multiple attempts to execute an arrest warrant for Antonio Brown but as of this writing he is not in custody. … Mac Jones had a profane sideline outburst over the Patriots’ play-calling in their loss to the Bills. … Here are the odds and matchups for SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest in Week 13 of the NFL season.

The top five...

… things I saw yesterday:

5. The controversial goal that sent Japan through to the last 16 and Germany crashing out of the World Cup. (Here’s how close the ball was to going out.)

4. The fastest overtime game-winner you’ll ever see in the NHL.

3. Diamond Miller’s buzzer beater to lift Maryland over Notre Dame in South Bend.

2. Caitlin Clark’s pull-up three from the logo during her 45-point outburst against NC State. (Iowa still lost, though, 94–81.)

1. Greg Bishop’s text exchange with the late Gaylord Perry.

SIQ

Patrick Roy played his final game for the Canadiens’ on this day in 1995, demanding a trade during the game after his coach refused to pull him amid an onslaught of shots. What was the team that lit up Roy for nine goals that night?

• Whalers
• Maple Leafs
• Rangers
• Red Wings

Yesterday’s SIQ: Who beat No. 1 Missouri in the 2007 Big 12 championship game?

• Oklahoma
• Kansas
• Nebraska
• Oklahoma State

Answer: Oklahoma. Mizzou lost two games that year, both to the Sooners.

Missouri started the season unranked but was ranked No. 17 when it earned its first marquee win of the season by destroying No. 25 Nebraska, 41–6, to improve to 5–0. The Tigers lost to Oklahoma on the road the next week but strung together five straight wins, all by at least two touchdowns, to set up a showdown with Kansas that had national championship implications. No. 3 Mizzou vs. No. 2 Kansas attracted more than 80,000 fans to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, the second biggest crowd in the stadium’s history at the time. Can you believe the biggest game in college football that year was Missouri vs. Kansas?

Mizzou won that game, 36–28, behind an excellent effort from quarterback Chase Daniel (40-of-49 passing for 361 yards and three touchdowns) and entered conference championship week ranked No. 1 in both the AP poll and BCS rankings. All the Tigers had to do was beat Oklahoma and they’d be playing for a national title a month later. But the Sooners came out on top again and No. 2 West Virginia famously lost the Backyard Brawl to Pitt, clearing the way for LSU and Ohio State to meet at the Superdome.

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