Forde-Yard Dash: Bowl Season Edition

Our annual breakdown of college football’s always-chaotic postseason, including score predictions for every matchup.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news this bowl season (endless AT&T commercials sold separately):

Bowl Season: Let the Crapshoot Begin

We will all watch, of course. Because it’s football and it’s the holidays, and we are powerless to resist the siren song of a 2:30 p.m. ET kickoff on a Monday afternoon from Myrtle Beach. (Would you rather be at the mall elbowing past other panicked shoppers at that time? No, you would not.) Who among us wants to miss our first opportunity in eight years to see Rice play in a bowl game? The Dash understands.

The true daredevils will bet on the games. This is like throwing money into a tornado and hoping it swirls back around to you. In an unpredictable sport, nothing is less certain than a bunch of bowls that are missing coaches and key players as teams begin to transition from the 2022 season to life thereafter.

Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

There are at least nine schools with lame-duck or interim head coaches. There are scads of player opt-outs to consider, plus others who might be on a decreased workload agreement in exchange for participating. Outside of the College Football Playoff games, the stakes are exactly what each team—heck, each individual player—wants to make of them. The buy-in is completely situational.

So keep that in mind as you watch some teams no-show and others show up strong. One group might be highly motivated to see a vat of mayonnaise dumped on its head coach, and another might not. Let’s get on to the Dash rundown:

All times are Eastern.

BAHAMAS BOWL (1): Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB

When: 11:30 a.m. Dec. 16.

Where: Nassau, Bahamas.

Spread, according to the SI Sportsbook: UAB by 11.

Chaos Meter: Low. If you want to transfer from either of these schools, don’t do it before a free trip to the Bahamas.

Better Helmet: UAB. Miami has a perfectly serviceable red M, but it’s hard to beat a fire-breathing dragon.

Historic Note: The inaugural Bahamas Bowl, in 2014, remains one of the most bonkers bowl games of all time. Western Kentucky defeated Central Michigan 49–48, but not until it stopped a two-point conversion for the win on the final play after the Chippewas scored 34 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The final touchdown was a bomb followed by three laterals for the score. If the Chips had converted the two-pointer, the Cooper Rush to Jesse Kroll to Deon Butler to Courtney Williams to Titus Davis touchdown would be remembered forever.

Dash Pick: UAB 28, Miami 16. DeWayne McBride, the national leader in rushing yards per game at 155.7, will feast on a RedHawks defense that gave up 465 yards on the ground in the final two games. Also, UAB has a defensive lineman named Fish McWilliams, which could be an advantage for the Blazers playing this close to the ocean.

DELLENGER: Ranking Bowl Games by Watchability

CURE BOWL (2): UTSA vs. Troy

When: 3 p.m. Dec. 16.

Where: Orlando.

Spread: Troy by 1.

Chaos Meter: Low for the moment, but the coaching carousel hasn’t come to a halt yet, and both coaches are rising talents. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor had his name mentioned for a couple of jobs but remains with the Roadrunners—as does his quarterback, Frank Harris, who announced that he will be back in 2023 for a sixth year. Troy coach Jon Sumrall probably had the best year of any first-time coach in FBS.

Better Helmet: UTSA. You have to appreciate the long bill and steely gaze of the Roadrunner.

Historic Note: Coastal Carolina receiver Greg Latushko was on the roster as a walk-on for two seasons before even recording any statistics, and three seasons before recording a catch. Then in the 2020 Cure Bowl against Liberty, he caught the only two touchdowns of what would be a six-year career to help the Chanticleers get the game into overtime. Liberty won, 37–34.

Dash Pick: Troy 28, UTSA 26. Great matchup of strengths here: The Trojans are eighth nationally in scoring defense and haven’t allowed more than 27 points in 10 straight games; the Roadrunners are 12th nationally in scoring offense and haven’t put up fewer than 30 in 10 straight games. Go with the champion of the tougher conference (Sun Belt over C-USA).

FENWAY BOWL (3): Louisville vs. Cincinnati

When: 11 a.m. Dec. 17.

Where: Boston

Spread: Louisville by 1.5.

Chaos Meter: Hahahaha. The needle is buried on this one and has been since Louisville coach Scott Satterfield left to become … the Cincinnati coach last week. (He will not coach or attend the bowl game.) Both teams are led by interim coaches, and Louisville’s isn’t even a coach. It’s former NFL star Deion Branch, who was named the program’s director of player development last January. But with the staff turnover from those following Satterfield and others leaving for different jobs, the former Patriots wide receiver has an interesting homecoming opportunity. As of last Thursday, Louisville athletic director Josh Heird said he didn’t even know who would call plays for the bowl. Oh, and the Cardinals also will be without starting QB Malik Cunningham, who turned pro.

Better Helmet: Cincinnati. Both helmets are pretty good, but Louisville loses points for the cardinal having teeth.

Historic Note: Louisville has never played any other FBS opponent as many times as it has played Cincinnati (53 meetings), and the Bearcats have only played Miami (Ohio) more than they’ve played Louisville. From 1966 to ’92, they played every season. But the two haven’t met since 2013, the season before the Cardinals joined the Atlantic Coast Conference, which is why two schools 100 miles apart now have to adjourn to Boston to play.

Dash Pick: Cincinnati 22, Louisville 17. Anyone who bets this game is also willing to bet on the amount of rainfall in Poughkeepsie in April. There is absolutely no way of knowing what will transpire—but at least the Bearcats have a shred of coaching continuity in interim Kerry Coombs, who has been on the UC staff all season.

CELEBRATION BOWL (4): Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

When: 12 p.m. Dec. 17.

Where: Atlanta

Spread: Jackson State by 14.

Chaos Meter: High. Deion Sanders is coaching this game for JSU, even though he has already begun his tenure at Colorado and is planning to take several of his Jackson State players with him. The Tigers have motivation to try to finish an undefeated season, but is that enough to keep the program’s short-timers locked in?

Better Helmet: Jackson State. The chrome helmets get the edge over the NC Central Eagle, which looks too much like it came directly off a corporate drawing board.

Historic Note: The last game Coach Prime lost was this game last year, when his favored Jackson State team was routed by 6–5 South Carolina State, 31–10.

Dash Pick: Jackson State 34, North Carolina Central 16. The Tigers are not only undefeated, they’ve had only one game decided by single digits. That was an eight-point win over Campbell—a team that beat NC Central by 30. Even a distracted Jackson State team should have way too much firepower and talent for the Eagles to contend with.

LAS VEGAS BOWL (5): Florida vs. Oregon State

When: 2:30 p.m. Dec. 17.

Where: Las Vegas, believe it or not.

Spread: Oregon State by 10.

Chaos Meter: High. Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson has turned pro and will miss the bowl game, and he has company from offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence and linebacker Ventrell Miller. Backup QB Jalen Kitna was dismissed from the team after being arrested on child pornography charges. Jack Miller III, a former Ohio State transfer who has not thrown a pass this season, is the next man up. But keep this in mind: Last year Oregon State faced a backup QB in a bowl game who had never thrown a collegiate pass and wound up losing.

Better Helmet: Oregon State. Florida’s refusal to put an actual alligator on its helmet remains an abiding disappointment. OSU’s beaver has appropriately prominent buck teeth.

Historic Note: If you take the College Football Playoff and BCS championship games out of the mix, this is the first SEC vs. Pac-12 bowl game since the 1989 Freedom Bowl, in which Washington routed Florida 34–7. The two leagues are tied 7-7-1 against each other in bowls, with the first meeting in the ’35 Rose Bowl (Alabama 29, Stanford 13).

Dash Pick: Oregon State 30, Florida 17. The Beavers are a productive running team that ended the season on a three-game winning streak, including an upset of Oregon. The Gators lost their last two games and have been vulnerable against the run. Combine that matchup with Florida’s current quarterback desert, and this sets up extremely well for Oregon State to get a 10th win for just the third time in program history.

JIMMY KIMMEL LA BOWL (6): Washington State vs. Fresno State

When: 3:30 p.m. Dec. 17.

Where: Los Angeles.

Spread: Fresno State by 3.5.

Chaos Meter: High for the Cougars, low for the Bulldogs. After the departure of his defensive coordinator, Washington State head coach Jake Dickert will take over that unit. He’ll be without top tackler Daiyan Henley, who turned pro, and the Wazzu offense is missing three of its top four receivers.

Better Helmet: Not an aesthetically pleasing matchup. The Dash will take Fresno’s script “Bulldogs” over the trying-too-hard logo Washington State has stuck with for many years.

Historic Note: In the august, one-year history of the L.A. Bowl, the Mountain West is 1–0 vs. the Pac-12. Last year Utah State upset Oregon State as a seven-point underdog, winning by 11. But the star of the game was Jimmy Camel, the bowl’s semi-sorta mascot, which vomited during a mascot race.

Dash Pick: Fresno State 27, Washington State 16. The Cougars haven’t beaten an FBS team with a winning record this season. They won’t start now. Fresno is steaming into this game on an eight-game winning streak, including an authoritative beating of Boise State on the blue turf to win the Mountain West championship.

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LENDING TREE BOWL (7): Rice vs. Southern Miss

When: 5:45 p.m. Dec. 17.

Where: Mobile, Ala.

Spread: Southern Miss by 6.5.

Chaos Meter: Pretty much at zero. Rice is trying to get some key players who missed games with late-season injuries back on the field.

Better Helmet: Rice. The Gothic script R on one side and the jersey number on the other is a combination that beats the rather literal “Southern Miss” of the Eagles.

Historic Note: This is the ninth straight annual meeting between the two teams, which used to be Conference USA brethren before Southern Miss fled to the Sun Belt this season. The Lending Tree Bowl is now on its fifth name. Its best game was as the GMAC Bowl in 2001, when Marshall and Byron Leftwich beat East Carolina 64–61 in double overtime after trailing 38–8 at halftime.

Dash Pick: Southern Miss 34, Rice 24. The Owls (5–7 and bowl-eligible by the grace of their APR numbers) are the most slop-tastic team in America. They’ve committed 30 turnovers and are lugging around a minus-15 margin. The Golden Eagles (6–6) scored what is in retrospect one of the most surprising wins of the season, defeating Cotton Bowl–bound Tulane in New Orleans.

Mordecai and the Mustangs put up 77 points in a 2022 game against Houston :: Raymond Carlin III/USA TODAY Sports

NEW MEXICO BOWL (8): SMU vs. BYU

When: 7:30 p.m. Dec. 17.

Where: Albuquerque

Spread: SMU by 4.

Chaos Meter: Moderate, with a chance to spike upward. SMU wideout Rashee Rice, the nation’s leader in receiving yards per game at 112.9, is out with a reported toe injury. BYU quarterback Jaren Hall has played all but 27 of the Cougars’ offensive snaps this season but injured an ankle in the regular-season finale against Stanford and “hasn’t participated as much as we’d like him to in practices,” said BYU coach Kalani Sitake on Monday. But he hasn’t yet been ruled out. If he is, with backup Jacob Conover having transferred to Arizona State, third-stringer Cade Fennegan could see his first action since 2020 as a backup at Boise State.

Better Helmet: SMU. Classic running horse logo defeats large Y.

Historic Note: BYU and SMU have met once in a bowl game, the 1980 Holiday Bowl. If you want to see a condensed version of the Mizlou broadcast (seriously) of an all-time classic, it’s here. Jim McMahon vs. Eric Dickerson and Craig James, big shoulder pads, an epic comeback, a stunning finish.

Dash Pick: SMU 37, BYU 31. So much depends on whether Hall is playing that this is guesswork until pregame warmups. But we do know this is Mustangs QB Tanner Mordecai’s last college game before entering the NFL draft, and he’s capable of some monster performances. Pony up.

FRISCO BOWL (9): North Texas vs. Boise State

When: 9:15 p.m. Dec. 17.

Where: Frisco, Texas.

Spread: Boise State by 10.5.

Chaos Meter: Moderate. The Mean Green fired coach Seth Littrell last week but have a veteran interim coach in defensive coordinator Phil Bennett.

Better Helmet: Boise State’s horse is superior to UNT’s vague bird of prey, which has only loose association with the “Mean Green” nickname. Turns out the mascot is an eagle named Scrappy, who was first introduced a century ago, and the “Mean Green” moniker came along later. Too much confusion.

Historic Note: This game used to be the Miami Beach Bowl but was sold to ESPN and relocated to Frisco—showing that ESPN has poor taste in bowl destinations. Home-state teams are a combined 0–3 in the bowl: UTSA and SMU have lost in Frisco, and South Florida lost in Miami. Bad news, North Texas.

Dash Pick: Boise State 42, North Texas 21. This is a tough matchup for the Mean Green, even without the upheaval of a coaching change. Boise freshman quarterback Taylen Green struggled against Fresno State in the MWC championship game but is an intriguing talent—big and mobile, and an adept passer.

MYRTLE BEACH BOWL (10): Marshall vs. Connecticut

When: 2:30 p.m. Dec. 19.

Where: Myrtle Beach, S.C.

Spread: Marshall by 10.

Chaos Meter: Low. All (or most) hands on deck for this one.

Better Helmet: Marshall, especially if the Thundering Herd wear their helmets from this year’s Marshall 75 game that commemorated the losses from the 1970 plane crash. The names of those 75 people run down the middle of the helmet, with a snorting bison on the side. One of the greatest helmets ever.

Historic Note: The Huskies are playing in their first bowl since 2015—when they lost to none other than Marshall in St. Petersburg. UConn’s last bowl win was on Jan. 2, 2010, against South Carolina. The next day, current Huskies coach Jim Mora lost his final game as coach of the Seattle Seahawks to finish the year 5–11. He was fired five days after that.

Dash Pick: Marshall 21, Connecticut 14. This has the makings of a slog. The Herd are 80th nationally in plays of 20-plus yards from scrimmage; the Huskies are 128th. Only once all season (in October) did Marshall give up more than 24 points, and UConn doesn’t appear equipped to change that stat.

IDAHO POTATO BOWL (11): Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State

When: 3:30 p.m. Dec. 20.

Where: Boise, Idaho.

Spread: San Jose State by 3.5.

Chaos Meter: Zero. When these two get together on the blue turf, it’s all business. Eastern Michigan’s only bowl win in school history was over San Jose State in the California Bowl 35 years ago. Certainly the Spartans are here for some revenge.

Better Helmet: San Jose State. Nice Spartan logo. EMU’s big E looks like the top of the eye chart.

Historic Note: This is the granddaddy of the cold-weather bowls, now 25 years old. It keeps plugging along and keeps dumping fries on the winning coach. The bowl has seen some big-time talent come through—the list of game MVPs over the years includes Matt Ryan, Josh Allen, Zach Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.

Dash Pick: San Jose State 29, Eastern Michigan 21. The Eagles finished strong, winning four of their last five, in no small part because they were a plus-10 in turnover margin in that span. But the Spartans are tied for the fewest giveaways in the nation with just six. If EMU isn’t taking the ball away, it will struggle to stop quarterback Chevan Cordeiro.

BOCA RATON BOWL (12): Liberty vs. Toledo

When: 7:30 p.m. Dec. 20.

Where: Boca Raton, Fla.

Spread: Toledo by 5.

Chaos Meter: High on the Liberty side. Hugh Freeze bolted for Auburn and left a sour taste on the way out with three straight losses, capped by a complete flop against major underdog New Mexico State. The Flames’ third-leading tackler, linebacker Ahmad Walker, has exited via the portal.

Better Helmet: Toledo has a rocket that appears to be fast. Liberty just has the initials LU. Advantage Toledo.

Historic Note: In the eight-year history of the Boca Raton Bowl, it has never been a close game. The smallest margin of victory is 15 points, in 2015. The MAC has had four previous representatives in the game and is 1–3, with the only winner being Toledo in ’15.

Dash Pick: Toledo 34, Liberty 23. The Flames will have to prove that they haven’t checked out on the season. The Rockets showed up in Detroit to beat Ohio for the MAC championship, and should have some pep in their Midwest step when they get to South Florida. Quarterback Dequan Finn could have a big night.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL (13): Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama

When: 9 p.m. Dec. 21.

Where: New Orleans.

Spread: South Alabama by 4.5.

Chaos Meter: Fluctuating wildly. Western Kentucky had a bunch of offensive players hit the portal, including starting quarterback Austin Reed, but then Reed withdrew from the portal Tuesday to stay at WKU. And coach Tyson Helton has had his name thrown around for the open Purdue job—but then that went to Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. South Alabama coach Kane Wommack has had his name in the mix at a couple of places as well.

Better Helmet: If WKU breaks out the helmets with the Big Red blob on the side and the face shield, it’s a huge win for the Hilltoppers. The intimidation factor would be off the charts.

Historic Note: No bowl has had a more Southern flavor than this one, in terms of who wins. The following states have produced New Orleans Bowl winners: Louisiana (six times), Mississippi (four times), Alabama (three), Tennessee (twice), North Carolina (twice), Florida (once), Georgia (once), Texas (once) and interloper Colorado (once).

Dash Pick: South Alabama 38, Western Kentucky 31. Reed’s return breathes some life into the Hilltoppers. But the Jaguars are quite good, with their two losses coming by a total of five points against UCLA and Sun Belt champ Troy.

ARMED FORCES BOWL (14): Baylor vs. Air Force

When: 7:30 p.m. Dec. 22.

Where: Fort Worth, Texas.

Spread: Baylor by 5.5.

Chaos Meter: Low. Bears coach Dave Aranda fired his defensive coordinator, Ron Roberts, and a safety hit the portal. We’ll see whether Air Force is drunk on power after winning the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy outright for the first time since 2016 after sweeping Army and Navy.

Better Helmet: Nobody has had more helmets than Air Force, it seems, and virtually all of them are better than Baylor’s BU. The Dash is partial to the old-school lightning bolts that have been AFA’s primary helmet.

Historic Note: This will be Baylor’s 39th game in Amon G. Carter Stadium, home field of the rival TCU Horned Frogs. The first one was in 1930, the year the stadium opened. The armed forces are 6–5 in the Armed Forces Bowl—Army is 4–0, Navy is 1–1, Air Force is 1–4.

Dash Pick: Baylor 30, Air Force 23. Give Aranda three weeks to prepare for the option, and he will have his team ready. The Bears also might have more speed on the perimeter offensively than Air Force is prepared to deal with—if quarterback Blake Shapen can hit the throws.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL (15): Louisiana vs. Houston

When: 3 p.m. Dec. 23.

Where: Shreveport, La.

Spread: Houston by 6.5.

Chaos Meter: Low but volatile. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen was badly shaken by the death of his mentor, Mike Leach. The Cougars got a boost when receiver Nathaniel Dell, who is turning pro, said he will play in the I-Bowl.

Better Helmet: Not a great matchup here. The block lettering “RAGIN’ CAJUNS” vs. the perennially underwhelming UH. Slight edge to Louisiana.

Historic Note: One of the great grassroots bowls, the Independence Bowl has been around since 1976. The 2000 edition was one of the most memorable bowls, with Texas A&M and Mississippi State playing in a blizzard. The game-turning play for the Bulldogs was an overtime blocked extra point that was returned for two points in a 43–41 victory.

Dash Pick: Houston 41, Louisiana 32. Both teams have had disappointing seasons—the Cougars are a wildly inconsistent 7–5, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 6–6 in Year 1 after the departure of Billy Napier. Dell and Houston quarterback Clayton Tune will want to go out with one more prolific pass-and-catch game together.

GASPARILLA BOWL (16): Wake Forest vs. Missouri

When: 6:30 p.m. Dec. 23.

Where: Tampa.

Spread: Wake Forest by 1.

Chaos Meter: Medium-high. Missouri’s disruptive defense had three key players opt out. Isaiah McGuire, DJ Coleman and safety Martez Manuel, who combined for 33 of the Tigers’ SEC-leading 90 tackles for loss, will not play. The Tigers also had leading receiver Dominic Lovett enter the transfer portal. Wake’s No. 2 rusher, Christian Turner, also hit the portal.

Better Helmet: Missouri. Wake Forest’s replacing the Angry Deacon with the initial WF remains a lamentable decision. Mizzou’s best option is the Tiger head with a sailor’s cap.

Historic Note: Missouri and Wake Forest have never played each other in football. This will be Mizzou’s 100th opponent of the current 131 in the FBS ranks. It will be Wake’s 66th, nudging the Demon Deacons past halfway. The Tigers haven’t won a bowl game since Jan. 1, 2015, when Gary Pinkel was still the coach.

Dash Pick: Wake Forest 35, Missouri 31. If the Tigers’ newly diminished pass rush can’t get home, Demon Deacons QB Sam Hartman could have a field day throwing the ball. We’ll see whether Mizzou looks for new ways to use wideout/kick returner Luther Burden III, the nation’s No. 1 wide receiver recruit, after a modestly impactful regular season.

HAWAIʻI BOWL (17): Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State

When: 8 p.m. Dec. 24.

Where: Honolulu.

Spread: San Diego State by 7.

Chaos Meter: Low. Nobody is opting out of anything before a trip to Hawaiʻi—especially if you’ve spent the semester in Murfreesboro, Tenn.

Better Helmet: San Diego State might have the best helmet of any bowl team after transitioning to the spectacular Aztec design.

Historic Note: Welcome back, Hawaiʻi Bowl. Clumsy Christmas Eve present-wrapping with this game on in the background has been a Dash way of life for decades, and it returns after the past two iterations were canceled due to COVID-19. It’s not quite the same without the game being played in Aloha Stadium, though, with stray wrappers and the like blowing across the field for three hours.

Dash Pick: San Diego State 28, Middle Tennessee State 17. Only one of the Hawaiʻi Bowl’s 18 winners has scored fewer than 30 points, but this could break that trend with both teams averaging under than 30. The Blue Raiders are winless against bowl teams this season and not particularly close against any of them.

QUICK LANE BOWL (18): New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green

When: 2:30 p.m. Dec. 26.

Where: Detroit.

Spread: Bowling Green by 3.5.

Chaos Meter: Barely a blip. Although New Mexico State’s punter transferred, which does heighten hopes for a punt adventure or two.

Better Helmet: The helmets live down to the rest of the matchup. Not a lot to love here. Slight edge to New Mexico State for the Aggies logo on one side of the lid. Bowling Green’s Falcon head, perched behind a BG, does not stir the spirit.

Historic Note: Nothing tells you Christmas is over quite like flipping on the TV on the 26th to see a low-major tussle in Detroit. It seems fitting that one year (2016), the Boston College defensive line was named the MVP en masse after a series of goal line stops against Maryland. This is New Mexico State’s first bowl appearance outside of the Southwest, having played in the nearby Sun Bowl three times from 1935 to ’60 and once in the Arizona Bowl in 2017.

Dash Pick: New Mexico State 22, Bowling Green 21. The Aggies figure to be the more excited participant, having finagled their way into the game via an NCAA waiver and a last-minute game against Valparaiso on Dec. 3 to reach six wins. If you want to zero in on one way they can pull off the upset and keep their undefeated bowl record intact (they’re 4-0-1), it’s pressure on the quarterback. NMSU produced 10 sacks in its last two games, and Falcons quarterback Matt McDonald has been dropped for 122 yards in losses the last five games.

CAMELLIA BOWL (19): Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo

When: noon Dec. 27.

Where: Montgomery, Ala.

Spread: Georgia Southern by 3.5.

Chaos Meter: Low. The Bulls had a couple of receivers enter the portal and will hope to have a couple of injured running backs return for the game.

Better Helmet: Buffalo’s Bull is a clear winner here.

Historic Note: The first seven Camellia Bowls were all one-score humdingers before last year’s 51–20 blowout win by Georgia State. The stadium, Cramton Bowl, is a delightful old venue celebrating its 100th year of existence—at first as a baseball stadium and later hosting football. Alabama and Auburn both played home games there periodically.

Dash Pick: Georgia Southern 38, Buffalo 34. This is the Kyle Vantrease Bowl. He played five seasons at Buffalo, throwing for 4,755 yards, then transferred to Georgia Southern and chucked it for 3,901 more this season. He’ll be the difference in this one. The Bulls became bowl eligible by rallying from 16 down to win a rescheduled game against Akron by a point on Dec. 2.

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL (20): Memphis vs. Utah State

When: 3:15 p.m. Dec. 27.

Where: Dallas.

Spread: Memphis by 7.5.

Chaos Meter: Spiked on the Utah State side when 1,000-yard rusher Calvin Tyler Jr. opted out and entered the NFL draft. Somewhat surprisingly, Ryan Silverfield is still the coach at Memphis.

Better Helmet: Utah State’s helmets might go winless in a competition against the other bowl teams, so it’s Memphis by default. The trusty old Tiger jumping over the M is fine; the various ripoffs of the Cincinnati Bengals’ stripes are not.

Historic Note: After being the TicketCity Bowl and then the Heart of Dallas Bowl, this game has hit a new level as the First Responder Bowl. The inaugural one under that name was canceled due to electrical storms, and the three subsequent games have been decided by a total of 13 points. For some reason, Memphis and Utah State played semiregularly back in the day, meeting seven times from 1965 to ’77. The Tigers won four of them.

Dash Pick: Memphis 37, Utah State 30. Tigers quarterback Seth Henigan and his receivers will be able to exploit a bad Aggies defense. But there could be plenty of points in both directions.

BIRMINGHAM BOWL (21): Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina

When: 6:45 p.m. Dec. 27.

Where: Birmingham.

Spread: East Carolina by 8.

Chaos Meter: High. Coastal coach Jamey Chadwell decamped for Liberty, and at least five key Chanticleers have headed to the transfer portal. But one of them, star quarterback Grayson McCall, is going to play in this game before departing. For East Carolina, there have been a couple of portal defections and third-leading receiver Ryan Jones has opted out for the draft.

Better Helmet: Quality matchup here, as one would expect in the Carolinas. In the battle of CCU’s fancy chicken vs. ECU’s fierce skull and crossbones, give the edge to ECU.

Historic Note: This game has been all over the bowl landscape. It’s been played as early as Dec. 22 and as late as Jan. 8. It has had four title sponsors. It is on its second stadium. But Birmingham is the anchor, and this is one mid-sized city that should always have a bowl game given its rabid and unwavering support for the sport (check the TV ratings). Birmingham Bowl forever.

Dash Pick: East Carolina 51, Coastal Carolina 38. If you want points, this is probably the game to watch. Both defenses are sketchy; both quarterbacks are productive; both teams have quality skill-position players. Punters might not even need to suit up.

GUARANTEED RATE BOWL (22): Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State

When: 10:15 p.m. Dec. 27.

Where: Phoenix.

Spread: Wisconsin by 3.

Chaos Meter: The meter is spiking here. Wisconsin is a geyser of turnover, with interim coach Jim Leonhard on his way out and several key players—including starting quarterback Graham Mertz—transferring and not playing. But Oklahoma State might be able to out-chaos the Badgers, with star QB Spencer Sanders, leading rusher Dominic Richardson and leading tackler Mason Cobb in the portal, among others.

Better Helmet: The oversized Wisconsin W is dreadful. Whatever iteration Oklahoma State is going with wins—especially if it features Pistol Pete.

Historic Note: This is a first meeting between two programs that punch above their weight and perform well in bowl games. The Cowboys have won five of their last six bowls; the Badgers have won seven of their last eight. Wisconsin hasn’t played a bowl game in Arizona since 1996 (the late Copper Bowl), while this is Oklahoma State’s second straight in the state.

Dash Pick: Wisconsin 20, Oklahoma State 14. This figures to be a late-night slog. The teams are not exactly rolling into this game—the Cowboys have lost four of their last five and the Badgers two of their last three. Oklahoma State’s offense fell apart over the final five games and is without its do-everything QB, which should be extremely bad news going up against the Wisconsin defense. The Badgers might actually experience some addition by subtraction with their QB change.

MILITARY BOWL (23): UCF vs. Duke

When: 2 p.m. Dec. 28.

Where: Annapolis, Md.

Spread: Duke by 2.5.

Chaos Meter: The Knights have a little bit of churn, with their leader in receptions (Ryan O’Keefe) and No. 3 tackler (Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste) transferring. Defensive back Davonte Brown, a veteran of 36 games with UCF, is also in the portal.

Better Helmet: Duke can win this matchup easily if it goes with its devil logo, or the pitchfork. If it chooses the script “Duke” or clunky “D” look, UCF and its various iterations of “UCF” back into victory.

Historic Note: From 1962 to 2014, Duke never won a bowl game. The Blue Devils played in only five of them in that span and lost them all, then had a three-game bowl winning streak from ’15 to ’18. Now the Devils are back bowling for the first time in four years. Prior to this game, UCF had never played a bowl north of Memphis.

Dash Pick: Duke 37, UCF 34. Mike Elko has done as fine a job as any first-year coach in the country, but it’s time to recognize the work coordinator Kevin Johns has done rewiring Duke offense. The Devils’ 33.1 points per game is their highest average since 1943, with Riley Leonard starring at quarterback (20 passing touchdowns, 11 rushing, more than 3,400 yards total offense) and converted QB Jordan Moore now the team’s No. 2 receiver. UCF boss Gus Malzahn was gifted a bowl win last year against a completely apathetic Florida team, but otherwise his bowl record is not good (2–5).

The Jayhawks are bowling for the first time since 2008 :: Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal/USA TODAY Network

LIBERTY BOWL (24): Kansas vs. Arkansas

When: 5:30 p.m. Dec. 28.

Where: Memphis

Spread: Arkansas by 3.

Chaos Meter: Low in Lawrence, high in Fayetteville. Razorbacks boss Sam Pittman fired the strength and conditioning staff immediately after the regular season, and defensive coordinator Barry Odom left for the head job at UNLV. On the player side, there are multiple impact opt-outs and transfers. The Hogs are in flux.

Better Helmet: The pig wins. Period.

Historic Note: Welcome back to Kansas, which last played in a bowl 14 years ago. The Jayhawks’ bowl presence has been so sporadic over the decades that six of the last seven bowls they have played in are either defunct or have changed names/sponsors. Despite sharing six letters in their name, Kansas and Arkansas have not played since 1906, when the Jayhawks won the second of two annual meetings, 37–5, in Lawrence.

Dash Pick: Arkansas 41, Kansas 34. The Hogs win if they keep this simple and adhere to their core value: run the ball. After overachieving early, the Jayhawks have collapsed defensively in the second half of the season, giving up 267 rushing yards and four rushing TDs per game over the final six contests. As the No. 2 rushing offense in the SEC, the Hogs have the personnel to maul Kansas in the trenches.

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HOLIDAY BOWL (25): Oregon vs. North Carolina

When: 8 p.m. Dec. 28.

Where: San Diego.

Spread: Oregon by 14.

Chaos Meter: Medium-high. Both teams had their offensive coordinators hired away in recent weeks, both teams have a significant draft opt-out (WR Josh Downs for North Carolina, CB Christian Gonzalez for Oregon), and both teams have starters in the portal.

Better Helmet: Put the Tar Heel on the helmet and this is a UNC victory. The interlocking “NC” loses to Oregon’s omnipresent “O.”

Historic Note: This is another first-time matchup. It marks North Carolina’s initial game against an FBS opponent from the Pacific Northwest and its initial bowl game in California. Oregon is just the sixth Pac-12 school the Heels have played. The Ducks are in even more unfamiliar territory, having played five ACC opponents—and two of those were before they joined the conference.

Dash Pick: Oregon 47, North Carolina 31. This is another case of a defense waiting to be plundered and an offense capable of doing it. With Downs going pro, UNC QB Drake Maye is missing his security blanket (94 catches in 11 games).

TEXAS BOWL (26): Texas Tech vs. Mississippi

When: 9 p.m. Dec. 28.

Where: Houston.

Spread: Mississippi by 3.5.

Chaos Meter: Surprisingly low (so far) for a game that involves Lane Kiffin.

Better Helmet: These are two teams devoted to their looks over the long haul. The script “Ole Miss” beats Tech’s double T’s.

Historic Note: According to this very publication, a Texas Bowl invitation in 2008 wound up costing Western Michigan nearly half a million dollars in unsold tickets it was forced to buy as a condition of getting the bid to the game. The Broncos were force-fed 11,000 tickets at full price to play Rice and sold a whopping 548. Of course, the Texas Bowl has hardly been a lone actor in that sort of ticket gouging; it’s been a common element of bowls for years. For what it’s worth, ticket sales should be pretty good for the Red Raiders and Rebels.

Dash Pick: Mississippi 35, Texas Tech 31. The Red Raiders’ run defense waned as the season went along, which is a bad thing when taking on the most prolific rushing offense in the nation outside the service academies.

PINSTRIPE BOWL (27): Syracuse vs. Minnesota

When: 2 p.m. Dec. 29.

Where: The Bronx.

Spread: Minnesota by 7.5.

Chaos Meter: Fairly high, thanks mostly to the coaching staffs. Both Syracuse coordinators have left—OC Robert Anae to North Carolina State and DC Tony White to Nebraska. At Minnesota, assistant head coach Kenni Burns is the new head coach at Kent State. Both teams also have some contributors in the portal.

Better Helmet: In a clash of big, unsubtle letters, give the edge to Syracuse and its “S” over Minnesota’s “M” based on superior color scheme.

Historic Note: Bad Boy Mowers is the new title sponsor of the game, and there is nothing quite so necessary to life in The Bronx as a massive riding mower to tackle those vast lawns and green spaces. Also: The only two Pinstripe Bowl participants whose campuses were 1,200-plus miles from Yankee Stadium (Kansas State and Miami) both lost. Minnesota is exactly 1,200 miles away.

Dash Pick: Minnesota 21, Syracuse 13. The Orange balloon has been leaking helium for the second half of the season, and that was before the coordinators departed. The Gophers are no juggernaut, but they do have the nation’s most tireless running back in Mohamed Ibrahim (27.6 carries per game) and a stout defense. Also, if veteran quarterback Tanner Morgan remains out, there were significant signs of progress from freshman backup Athan Kaliakmanis in the win over Wisconsin to end the regular season. Give him several weeks of bowl practices and he could take another step forward here.

CHEEZ-IT BOWL (28): Oklahoma vs. Florida State

When: 5:30 p.m. Dec. 29.

Where: Orlando.

Spread: Florida State by 7.5.

Chaos Meter: Needle is close to buried in Norman. The Sooners have lost both starting offensive tackles, their 1,300-yard rusher and their No. 2 defensive player in tackles for loss to draft prep. Plus a receiver to the portal. For now, the news out of Tallahassee is less chaotic.

Better Helmet: Florida State’s spear is an iconic winner.

Historic Note: On Jan. 3, 2001, Oklahoma beat Florida State 13–2 in the Orange Bowl to lock up its first national championship since the 1980s. The score was 3–0 at halftime, and the only touchdown was scored in the fourth quarter on a 15-yard drive after a Florida State fumble. As national championship games go, it was not the most thrilling.

Dash Pick: Florida State 37, Oklahoma 24. The Seminoles had a better season, finished better, have more roster stability coming into this game and are playing a semi-home game in Orlando. It is an interesting return engagement for Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who transferred to Oklahoma after three seasons at UCF.

ALAMO BOWL (29): Texas vs. Washington

When: 9 p.m. Dec. 29.

Where: San Antonio.

Spread: Texas by 4.5.

Chaos Meter: Sky high in Austin, where reports have three star players skipping the bowl game for the draft: running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. Robinson and Johnson combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns this season. Overshown was the Longhorns’ No. 2 tackler with 96. And backup quarterback Hudson Card has portaled. Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. gave that program a boost by announcing that he’s not going pro and will be back in 2023.

Better Helmet: Washington has a good helmet, but it’s very hard to beat the Longhorns’ logo. (Not nearly as hard to beat the team wearing the logo in recent years.)

Historic Note: This will be Texas’s 40th in-state bowl appearance out of 58 total, and its fifth Alamo Bowl bid in the last decade. That’s a lot of River Walk for Horns fans. The travel sure is easy, but the scenery might be getting old for a program that aspires to play in New Year’s Six bowls on the regular.

Dash Pick: Washington 34, Texas 31. The opt-outs are a significant issue for the Horns, who probably lost any semblance of offensive balance without their star running backs. Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy could have a big night against a vulnerable Huskies pass defense, but there also has been no stopping Penix and his receiving corps. This should be a fun game.

DUKE’S MAYO BOWL (30): Maryland vs. North Carolina State

When: noon Dec. 30.

Where: Charlotte.

Spread: Maryland by 1.

Chaos Meter: High. There are mass evacuations from the Mayo. The Terrapins have had three receivers declare for the draft, along with starting cornerback Deonte Banks. Linebacker Ahmad McCullough, Maryland’s fourth-leading tackler, is in the portal. At North Carolina State, offensive coordinator Tim Beck left to become the new head coach at Coastal Carolina, vertical receiving threat Devin Carter is in the portal, and there is uncertainty at QB due to injuries.

Better Helmet: North Carolina State can show up with a turnip on its helmet, and it will look better than Maryland’s mess of a state flag logo.

Historic Note: Before Maryland got the bright idea to leave for the Big Ten, these former ACC rivals had played each other 70 times, with the series tied at 33-33-4. So this tiebreaker game is for all the Mayo. In 1970 the two played their regular-season game in Norfolk, Va., as part of the Oyster Bowl series, which has been played annually in the Hampton Roads area since the late ’40s.

Dash Pick: North Carolina State 31, Maryland 28. The Wolfpack persevered through a season-ending injury to star QB Devin Leary and showed some character in upsetting North Carolina to close the regular season. They should tee it up for this game. And Taulia Tagovailoa is shorthanded in terms of receiving targets.

SUN BOWL (31): Pittsburgh vs. UCLA

When: 2 p.m. Dec. 30.

Where: El Paso.

Spread: UCLA by 6.5.

Chaos Meter: Fairly low. For now. Pittsburgh quarterback Kedon Slovis is in the transfer portal, and All-American defensive lineman Calijah Kancey is out with an injury. UCLA hasn’t said anything yet about the status of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, running back Zach Charbonnet and other draft prospects who could opt out. Check back later, when the Bruins resume practice after being off this week for finals.

Better Helmet: A couple of classic script looks that will be especially appealing if it’s a sunny day in the Sun Bowl. UCLA is close to undefeated in uniform history, so give this matchup to the Bruins.

Historic Note: The Sun Bowl is its own quirky triumph. The hardy stalwart of the bowl lineup predates World War II and is played in a picturesque stadium in a remote corner of the Southwest. It has a standing date with its faithful companion, CBS. There have been plenty of great games, and also the worst bowl of the 21st century: Oregon State 3, Pittsburgh 0, on New Year’s Eve 2008. There were 20 punts in the game, and the one scoring play—a 44-yard field goal by Justin Kahut, came in spite of the Beavers’ holder botching placement of the ball for the kick.

Dash Pick: UCLA 40, Pittsburgh 33. This pick is subject to radical revision if key members of the Bruins’ high-octane offense bail. Until then, go with the team more capable of winning a loosely defended shootout.

GATOR BOWL (32): Notre Dame vs. South Carolina

When: 3:30 p.m. Dec. 30.

Where: Jacksonville.

Spread: Notre Dame by 2.5.

Chaos Meter: Oh, it’s high. There are opt-outs and transfers and coaching changes aplenty. The Fighting Irish are down two potential first-round draft picks (tight end Michael Mayer and defensive end Isaiah Foskey) and the quarterback who started 10 games (Drew Pyne). The Gamecocks are without their offensive coordinator (Marcus Satterfield), two tight ends (Austin Stogner and Jaheim Bell), leading rusher (MarShawn Lloyd) and a stud defensive lineman (Zacch Pickens).

Better Helmet: Notre Dame wins simply because South Carolina refused to embrace Cock Commander as both a mascot and a helmet logo vehicle. Opportunity missed.

Historic Note: The Gamecocks couldn’t have been too overjoyed with this bid, since they’re 0–4 in the Gator Bowl. They lost the first Gator Bowl in 1946 (to Wake Forest). They lost in Heisman Trophy winner George Rogers’s last game in ’80 (to Pittsburgh and Heisman runner-up Hugh Green). They lost in ’84 as the No. 7 team in the nation on a touchdown with a minute left (to Oklahoma State). And they lost in ’87 in a game that was never close (to LSU).

Dash Pick: South Carolina 27, Notre Dame 24. If anyone says they know what this game is going to look like, they’re lying. Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer had his team playing extremely well at the end of the year, upsetting Tennessee and Clemson in succession, and he’s 1–0 as a bowl coach after beating North Carolina last year.

ARIZONA BOWL (33): Ohio vs. Wyoming

When: 4:30 p.m. Dec. 30.

Where: Tucson.

Spread: Ohio by 1.

Chaos Meter: Dangerously high for the Cowboys, who could be without all four running backs who have carries this season (one dismissed, one to the portal, two dealing with injuries). Wyoming is also without its leading receiver and four defensive players who are transferring. There are more antelope than people around Laramie, and Craig Bohl might need to suit some of them up for this game. Ohio has been laboring for a few weeks without injured star quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who will not play in this game.

Better Helmet: Wyoming has been absolutely committed for decades to the Cowboy-on-the-bucking-horse look, and for good reason. It’s a great look and fits the state.

Historic Note: Wyoming played in the 1951 Gator Bowl, and it was both the first and last time the Cowboys have played a bowl game east of the Mississippi River. This is Ohio’s first game in the state of Arizona.

Dash Pick: Ohio 23, Wyoming 20. The Bobcats covered the spread in their last three bowl games, but that was under now-retired Frank Solich. Still, they’re on more solid footing than the tumult-ridden Cowboys for this one.

It’s Cade Klubnik time at Clemson :: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

ORANGE BOWL (34): Tennessee vs. Clemson

When: 8 p.m. Dec. 30.

Where: Miami Gardens, Fla.

Spread: Clemson by 6.5.

Chaos Meter: Fairly high, with a chance to escalate further. Tennessee receiver Cedric Tillman is entering the draft and not playing, but the Volunteers’ passing game has been fine with him missing half the season. The bigger departure is star Jalin Hyatt, who has also declared for the draft and will not suit up. Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is in the portal, but that isn’t a surprise after he was benched in favor of rising star Cade Klubnik. Several other Tigers have hit the portal as well, and defensive end Myles Murphy declared for the draft.

Better Helmet: Good battle of iconic looks here, with the power T against the Clemson paw. Edge to the paw, which is a smidge more creative than the big letter, although Tennessee’s dabbles with both orange and black helmets have been cool.

Historic Note: There have been a few oddball Orange Bowl winners from yesteryear—Bucknell, Catholic, Duquesne—but the last of them was Santa Clara on Jan. 2, 1950. The Broncos were 7-2-1 when they traveled cross-country to play Kentucky, wearing down the Wildcats in the second half of a 21–13 victory. The Kentucky coach was criticized for putting his players through grueling two-a-day practices in South Florida for two weeks leading up to the game. His name was Bear Bryant.

Dash Pick: Clemson 31, Tennessee 30. The Tigers have won four straight non-Playoff bowls under Dabo Swinney. This particular bowl will be the launching pad for Klubnik. We’ll see whether he can maintain altitude into next season and avoid crashing like Uiagalelei did.

MUSIC CITY BOWL (35): Iowa vs. Kentucky

When: Noon Dec. 31.

Where: Nashville.

Spread: Iowa by 2.

Chaos Meter: Oh boy, it’s carnage. There is player movement aplenty, and Kentucky fired its offensive coordinator. (That’s something Iowa should maybe think about—haha, who are we kidding? The last name provides Brian Ferentz all the job security needed.) The Hawkeyes will be starting a third-string quarterback, and the Wildcats a second stringer. And both offenses were already awful.

Better Helmet: The helmet matchup is as dreary as the game. The Iowa Tigerhawk, despite being badly in need of an update, wins on a safety.

Historic Note: Kentucky and Iowa had never played each other until last season, and now they’re playing twice in the same calendar year. (They played in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day 2022.) The Wildcats won that one 20–17, their fourth straight bowl win by one score and their fifth straight bowl game decided by one score. It would be surprising if this were anything other than another one-score game.

Dash Pick: Iowa 9, Kentucky 6. If there isn’t at least one safety involved, this game will be a significant disappointment. The Hawkeyes by far lead the nation in fewest scrimmage plays of 20 yards or more allowed, with just 24. Which means the Wildcats likely will have to sustain drives over a large number of plays without an experienced quarterback or a 3,500-yard career rusher. If they’re ensnared in a punting game, that’s right where Kirk Ferentz wants them.

SUGAR BOWL (36): Alabama vs. Kansas State

When: noon Dec. 31.

Where: New Orleans.

Spread: Alabama by 3.

Chaos Meter: Not yet registering, but prepared to spike. Alabama has had a handful of players go into the transfer portal, but no one who should materially affect its performance in this game. The big names have yet to declare, starting with quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. Stay tuned. Kansas State is confident that its roster will be largely intact for this game.

Better Helmet: Alabama’s helmets, while iconic, are also deadly dull. The Dash isn’t a huge fan of K-State’s Powercat, but it’s better than Bama’s jersey numbers.

Historic Note: Alabama has won nine Sugar Bowls, more than any other program, but only one of them under Nick Saban. He’s just 1–3 in that bowl as coach of the Crimson Tide, with upset losses to Utah and Oklahoma in similar circumstances to this game. But two of Alabama’s all-time greatest wins have come in the Sugar: the 1993 upset romp of Miami to win the national championship and the ’79 goal-line stand to beat Penn State and claim another national title.

Dash Pick: Kansas State 24, Alabama 21. The Wildcats are a quality team on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide figure to lose key players between now and kickoff—and this was an underachieving Saban team to begin with. Bama’s 12 takeaways rank tied for 114th nationally, exactly half the total that K-State has. The Tide are in the bottom 10 nationally in penalty yards per game (70.7), while the Wildcats are in the top 25 (43.2). Of course, if Bryce Young plays, all bets are altered.

RELIAQUEST BOWL (37): Mississippi State vs. Illinois

When: noon Jan. 2.

Where: Tampa.

Spread: Illinois by 2.5.

Chaos Meter: There is the tragic tumult in Starkville with the death of coach Mike Leach. And there is the shakeup at Illinois, where star defensive coordinator Ryan Walters was hired away to be the head coach at Purdue. State also has some opt-outs and transfers that affect the secondary, receiving corps and running back group. Illinois figures to have a couple of pro decisions forthcoming, most notably star running back Chase Brown and defensive back Devon Witherspoon. The fact that Brown has never played in a bowl game may swing his status in the Illini’s favor.

Better Helmet: Not a lot going on here, with the Bulldogs’ “M” with a “State” overlay vs. Illinois’s redoubtable “I.” But it seems logical to think that Mississippi State will add something to its helmets to honor Leach.

Historic Note: The bowl formerly known as Outback—and, way back, as the Hall of Fame Bowl—now has the most vague and generic name of them all. (The Dash has to know: What has become of the Bloomin’ Onion mascot costume?) For the 28th straight season, this is a Big Ten vs. SEC matchup. The scoreboard in the previous 27: SEC 18, Big Ten 9.

Dash Pick: Illinois 20, Mississippi State 17. There’s no way of knowing how the Bulldogs will respond, though they do have three weeks to regroup and try to produce an effort that would honor Leach. In terms of actual football, the Illini have a pass defense that ranks as the best in efficiency since Alabama’s in 2011, allowing opponents a rating of just 89.77. That’s trouble for a team that relies almost exclusively on throwing the ball.

COTTON BOWL (38): Tulane vs. USC

When: 1 p.m. Jan. 2.

Where: Arlington, Texas.

Spread: USC by 1.5.

Chaos Meter: Who knows? Tulane figures to have all hands on deck for its biggest bowl game since 1940. The Trojans’ roster is TBD, starting with Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and his hamstring and going on from there to several other key players.

Better Helmet: Wooo, what a matchup here. But even the iconic USC Trojan head meets its match against Tulane’s Angry Wave.

Historic Note: Lincoln Riley played the Green Wave last year at Oklahoma in the season opener—and was lucky to escape with the victory over a Tulane team that would go 2–10. The dynamic is completely different now, of course, with the Wave earning a rare spot in the New Year’s Six.

Dash Pick: Tulane 35, USC 34. With Playoff hopes expunged and some players eyeing their futures, the Trojans have to prove they want to be in this game. Is their defense, which abjectly quit tackling in the Pac-12 championship, ready to wrap up NFL prospect Tyjae Spears, who has more than 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns this year? Or 220-pound quarterback Michael Pratt, who ran for 395 yards and 10 TDs?

CITRUS BOWL (39): LSU vs. Purdue

When: 1 p.m. Jan. 2.

Where: Orlando.

Spread: LSU by 11.

Chaos Meter: High. The Boilermakers are playing under interim coach Brian Brohm, the brother of departed head coach Jeff Brohm, and Brian will be joining him in Louisville after this game. They also had their best cornerback opt out for the draft, and a starting guard is in the portal. For LSU, edge rusher BJ Ojulari and receiver Jaray Jenkins have opted out. Next question is whether quarterback Jayden Daniels will play after being banged up in the last two games.

Better Helmet: Both teams are entrenched with their helmet looks, with not much changing over the past several decades. Give the Boilermakers credit for laying down a railroad track as the center stripe, but LSU’s letters-plus-Tiger-head look is a winner.

Historic Note: LSU’s first bowl game was the Bacardi Bowl, in Cuba, on Christmas day 1907. The Tigers beat a team from the University of Havana 56–0. Their next three bowl appearances were all in the Sugar Bowl, from ’36 to ’38, and those did not go as smoothly. LSU lost all three, twice to Santa Clara and once to TCU by the score of 3–2.

Dash Pick: LSU 28, Purdue 22. The Tigers have better talent and more coaching stability. But here’s the one word of warning: LSU’s defense has recorded zero sacks and given up six touchdown passes in the last two games. That’s a bad formula against a team that will put stress on a secondary. Freshman linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. had 10 tackles in the SEC title game against Georgia but hasn’t had a sack since his monster game against Arkansas; the Tigers need to get him unleashed on the quarterback again.

ROSE BOWL (40): Utah vs. Penn State

When: 5 p.m. Jan. 2.

Where: Pasadena.

Spread: Utah by 2.

Chaos Meter: Moderate, with both teams taking hits at receiver and in the secondary. Star defensive backs Clark Phillips III (Utah) and Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State) both have opted out for the NFL. Tight end Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and wideout Parker Washington (Penn State) both have been injured and will not play, and each is their teams’ top receiver.

Better Helmet: Everything that was said about Alabama’s helmets above applies to Penn State’s helmets, except they’re even worse. This is a Utah walkover, no matter which helmets the Utes wear.

Historic Note: Yet another first-time matchup. From 1999 to 2017, the Utes won 14 of the 15 bowls they played in—but since then they are on a three-bowl losing streak. Since Joe Paterno’s era ended, the Nittany Lions have not won two bowl games in a row and have lost more than they’ve won (3–5). Penn State’s only Rose Bowl win was the Kerry Collins–led undefeated team against Oregon, which might have deserved at least a share of the 1994 national title with Nebraska. (Titles used to be split by the poll voters, kids. It was a bad system. Look it up.)

Dash Pick: Utah 31, Penn State 28. The teams look pretty similar statistically—the Utes a little better offensively, the Nittany Lions a little stouter defensively. They’re led by hard-nosed, veteran quarterbacks. They have some young pop at running back. It could come down to who compensates best for what’s missing in the passing game—both offensively and defensively. Expect this Rose Bowl to not be decided until after the ballyhooed sunset behind the San Gabriel Mountains.

FIESTA BOWL (41): Michigan vs. TCU

When: 4 p.m. Dec. 31.

Where: Glendale, Ariz.

Spread: Michigan by 7.5.

Chaos Meter: Low. For obvious reasons. The Wolverines have a couple of prominent players in the transfer portal, but they’ve been injured and nonfactors this season. Everyone who matters and is healthy enough to play will play.

Better Helmet: When Michigan is in the building, (almost) any other helmet is playing for second place. Tulane and San Diego State might be the only ones with an argument.

Playoff Preview: Michigan, TCU to Meet in Compelling Semifinal

Historic Note: The Bowl Dash recurring theme recurs again—this is a first-time matchup. The only time Michigan has played in the Fiesta Bowl, Jim Harbaugh was the quarterback, and the Wolverines beat Nebraska on New Year’s Day 1986. TCU has played in the Fiesta more recently, losing to Boise State in 2010. And the truly odd stat: TCU has also played more recently in the Rose Bowl than Michigan (’11 vs. ’07).

Dash Pick: Michigan 38, TCU 28. The crux of the matter is whether the Horned Frogs can sufficiently D up to give their offense a chance to win the game. The data suggests no. TCU is a middling defense unit, ranking 56th nationally in yards allowed per play (5.41) and 118th in number of scrimmage plays allowed of 20 yards or longer (69). That’s a bad combination against an opponent with newfound explosiveness (Donovan Edwards on the ground, several receivers through the air) but also the mentality to patiently grind out five-yard runs all day.

Max Duggan will be able to make some plays passing—if his line gives him time against a vicious Michigan pass rush—and probably will make some running as well. It would certainly help TCU’s cause if Kendre Miller can get untracked early in the running game, but doing that against the No. 3 rushing defense in the nation will be tough sledding. Sonny Dykes needs to come to the desert ready to get risky, whereas Harbaugh can arrive relatively certain that he’s dealing from a position of strength.

PEACH BOWL (42): Georgia vs. Ohio State

When: 8 p.m. Dec. 31.

Where: Atlanta.

Spread: Georgia by 6.5.

Chaos Meter: Low. Ohio State will be without receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson—which, if this were 2021, would be cataclysmic news. But Henderson hasn’t been a factor since October and Smith-Njigba hasn’t been a factor since last season’s Rose Bowl, so the Buckeyes are not dealing with sudden adversity.

Better Helmet: Elite matchup of iconic looks. Edge goes to the Buckeyes and their distinctive stickers. The Georgia “G” is identical to the Green Bay Packers’ helmet and appears to have come along about four years later.

Playoff Preview: Georgia, Ohio State Set for Blueblood Clash

Historic Note: Rather amazingly, this is Ohio State’s first game in the state of Georgia. The Buckeyes’ only previous game against the Bulldogs was a bowl game in Florida, and they have never played Georgia Tech home or away. (Ohio State and Georgia are contracted for a home-and-home series in 2030 and ’31.) The ‘Dogs have played one game in the state of Ohio, beating Cincinnati in 1942 on their way to a pseudo-national championship. The AP conducted its last voting in late November that year, before bowl games, and Georgia finished No. 2 before then going on to beat UCLA in the Rose Bowl. The team ranked No. 1 that year? Ohio State. If anyone remembers that 80-year-old beef between Georgia and Ohio State about who was the true national champion, send a telegram.

Dash Pick: Georgia 35, Ohio State 21. If the Buckeyes had trouble holding up in the second half against the power of Michigan, what are they going to do here? Georgia is the most physically dominant team in the nation, punishing on both sides of the ball, and Ohio State flunked a test it had a year to study for in that regard against the Wolverines. The Buckeyes have five weeks to get better in an area where that’s not easy to do. If they are going to pull this off, they will need their best players to perform like superstars—quarterback C.J. Stroud and receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, specifically. That’s certainly possible. But the Ohio State defense will also need to avoid the glaring lapses it had against Michigan, because Georgia can befuddle the Buckeyes with misdirection and eye candy to spring some big plays in the passing game and on the perimeter—then finish them off between the tackles with the power running attack.