Predicting the First Loss for Men’s College Basketball’s Five Undefeated Teams

Of the 363 Division I squads, you can count the unbeaten ones on one hand. How long will it last?

The 2022–23 men’s college basketball season started off with 363 undefeated Division I teams. But now, a little over 40 days into the schedule, there are only five unbeaten squads remaining: No. 1 Purdue, No. 2 UConn, No. 15 Mississippi State, Utah State and New Mexico. Below, we predict when each team will spoil their perfect record and suffer their first loss of the year. (Spoiler alert: It’s happening sooner than you think.)

Mississippi State: Dec. 28, vs. Alabama

The Mississippi State undefeated ride has been a fun one, but the team isn’t getting any favors with the opening games on its SEC schedule. Assuming the Bulldogs beat Drake on Tuesday to close nonconference play at 12–0, they host Alabama and then travel to Tennessee to kick off league play. The Crimson Tide are coming off a rough loss to Gonzaga, in which they scored 90 but gave up 100 in a shootout. But the Zags’ offense and Mississippi State’s offense are worlds apart, and this matchup will be a battle of tempo, with Bama trying to speed things up and the Bulldogs trying to slow things down. The bet here is that the Tide will be a little too much offensively.

Can D.J. Jeffries and Mississippi State keep the good times rolling as SEC play starts? :: Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports

Utah State: Jan. 7, at Boise State

Ryan Odom has the Aggies flying high at 9–0 and on the verge of cracking the top 40 on KenPom (and in the NCAA’s NET rankings, they’re No. 10). Utah State has been elite in three key areas: three-point shooting, where it leads the nation (43.7%); defensive rebounding, where it’s fifth-best; and two-point defense, where it’s seventh-best. The Aggies have a relatively soft opening to Mountain West play until they travel to Boise, where they’ve lost four straight. The Broncos have the makeup to hang with Utah State in those key areas—Boise State is holding opponents to 25.9% from three (No. 7 nationally), and also protects both its defensive glass and the paint. If Leon Rice’s team can grind this game down and limit the Aggies’ perimeter attempts, it can notch the win—and play spoiler to Utah State’s record—at home.

New Mexico: Jan. 7, vs. UNLV

Yes, we’re predicting the two Mountain West unbeatens to go down the same day. The Lobos have been one of the surprises of the season, starting off 11–0 (with the chance to match last year’s 13-win total before the calendar flips) in Year 2 under Richard Pitino. They’ve earned three top-100 KenPom wins, including Richard taking down father Rick’s Iona team this past weekend. The start of conference play brings some immediate potential landmines for New Mexico, including Colorado State and road trips to Wyoming and Fresno State. But we’re circling the UNLV game—the Runnin’ Rebels are 10–1 themselves and have a pesky defense that forces turnovers. Plus, the Lobos might get caught looking ahead to their big road showdown with Mountain West favorite San Diego State a week later.

UConn: Jan. 11, at Marquette

Will the Huskies lose again? We’re kidding … we think. UConn is favored—mostly comfortably—to win all of its remaining games on both KenPom and T-Rank, but the chances of all of those coming true is quite low. How low? KenPom gives it 6.1% odds of happening. UConn’s toughest Big East tests include Marquette, Xavier and Creighton (despite the Bluejays’ recent struggles), and a healthier Villanova could be dangerous as well, now that Cam Whitmore is playing.

The Huskies have crushed everyone they’ve played so far, so we haven’t even seen how they’ll respond in a close contest late. Their stretch through mid-January contains some potential pitfalls, and then they don’t travel to Creighton and Villanova until Feb. 11 and March 4, respectively.

We don’t feel great about it, but we’re going to pick UConn’s trip to Marquette as its first defeat. The Golden Eagles have impressed in Shaka Smart’s second season, and they’re catching the Huskies at a good time: Connecticut will be finishing up a tough five-game stretch that includes hosting Villanova and Creighton and traveling to Xavier and Providence. Our main question is whether Marquette’s defense is going to be able to slow UConn’s potent offense.

Purdue: Jan. 16, at Michigan State

There’s little doubt that the Boilermakers are going to open the New Year undefeated, but a hazardous road in the Big Ten awaits (KenPom gives them just a 0.1% chance of pulling off an undefeated regular season). Purdue has one of the best home atmospheres in the country at Mackey Arena, losing just two total games there in the last two seasons, so we’re directing our attention elsewhere.

Michigan State has dealt with injuries that stagnated some of the early-season growth Tom Izzo’s team made, but Jaden Akins is back and we’re assuming that by the time Purdue comes to town, Malik Hall (sidelined with a foot injury since late November) will be as well. A healthy Spartans team would give the Boilermakers a run for their money in East Lansing; MSU will also be coming off back-to-back difficult road contests and this spot could be an ideal “get right at home with a marquee win” situation. The Boilers, meanwhile, will be in the middle of a two-week stretch where they play four of five games on the road. That’s tough on any team’s psyche.