Men’s College Hoops Conference Resets: Revising Our Preseason Predictions

Nearly two months into the season, some of our picks to win each high-major league have changed.

As we approach the halfway point in the college basketball season and conference play gets started, I might be having some buyer’s remorse. Before the season, I ranked every single Division I men’s team. Some of those picks look great! Others haven’t quite panned out the way I had hoped. So before conference play heats up in earnest, I’m taking a do-over, putting down new picks for conference champions in all seven high-major leagues.

Here’s what I’m changing and what I’m sticking with.

AAC: Houston (Preseason: Houston)

No change here, and for good reason. Houston was the clearest favorite of our high-major leagues, and for the most part the Cougars have lived up to the hype. They may lack the interior scoring punch they possessed a season ago, but have two of the best guards in the country in Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead and have predictably been a monster on defense and on the offensive glass. The Cougars have a great win over Virginia, and their only loss to date came after blowing a 16-point second-half lead against Alabama. Had Houston closed out that game, an undefeated season would be a serious topic of conversation heading into 2023.

The clearest challenger to the Cougars’ AAC throne is Memphis, and the Tigers have exceeded expectations. Kendric Davis is one of the best guards in the country and this group has significant upside defensively. There’s a real case to be made that this team should be in the top 25. Other than the Tigers, no team in the league looks like a safe bet to go dancing. That’s why Houston is favored by double digits, per KenPom, in all but two remaining games this season.

The Heels have won four straight since their four-game losing streak :: Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

ACC: North Carolina (Preseason: North Carolina)

This league’s early-season slate has been quite the roller coaster. In fact, of the top five contenders for the regular season title, four already have an ACC loss, including shockers for Duke (at Wake Forest on Tuesday) and Virginia Tech (at Boston College on Wednesday). And while Miami has stayed undefeated in league play, the Hurricanes currently rank fifth in the league qualitatively based on KenPom.

Virginia is probably the safest choice: It’s experienced, steady on both ends of the floor and well-coached. Still, the talent level doesn’t compare to that of Duke’s or UNC’s. Duke’s talent level has popped at times, though the Blue Devils’ offense hasn’t found its full gear yet. And just when I was ready to buy full stock in Virginia Tech, the Hokies took that aforementioned loss to a dreadful BC team.

That brings us back to North Carolina, the preseason No. 1 not just in the ACC, but in the country. The Tar Heels appear to be turning the corner after neutral-court wins over Michigan and Ohio State in the last week. Armando Bacot has found his March form again, and the way UNC rallied against Ohio State seemed to help the Heels regain their mojo from last year’s run.

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Big East: UConn (Preseason: Creighton)

Creighton isn’t nearly as bad as its 6–6 record says it is, as the Bluejays have been without their most important player in Ryan Kalkbrenner for parts of a brutal schedule that has featured tough travel and some quick turnarounds. Greg McDermott’s club also experienced some shooting regression at the worst possible time given Kalkbrenner’s absence. Still, outside of their impressive three games in Maui, the Jays haven’t quite looked the part of the elite team I pegged them for in the preseason. There’s something seemingly off chemistry-wise in its backcourt, where Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander too often seem like they’re taking turns offensively. Fellow sophomore Arthur Kaluma hasn’t made the jump some expected, and the team’s depth is a weakness.

But even if Creighton had lived up to preseason hype, UConn would likely still be ahead of it at this point. The Huskies have finally hit some slight bumps in the road in early Big East play against Butler and Georgetown, but still have won all seven high-major games they’ve played by double figures and possess rare depth. The team’s ninth man, grad transfer Joey Calcaterra, was the centerpiece of its comeback against Georgetown, and its backup center (freshman Donovan Clingan) has arguably been an all-league performer thus far. This team is trending toward a No. 1 seed.

Big Ten: Purdue (Preseason: Illinois)

Picking Illinois to win the league in the preseason was a bit of an outlier compared to national consensus, though most had the Illini among the Big Ten’s elite. And while I’ve been encouraged by Illinois in big neutral-court wins over UCLA and Texas, the team’s inconsistency (as evidenced by its 0–2 start in Big Ten play) is likely enough to keep it from claiming the conference title. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers have lost three of five and now will be without starting PG Xavier Johnson for an extended period of time after surgery to repair a broken foot suffered in the team’s loss against Kansas.

That clears the field for Purdue, which sits as one of the three remaining undefeated teams in the country. The Boilermakers have the early favorite for National Player of the Year in Zach Edey, the nation’s most dominant interior force who opens things up for Purdue’s young shooters. And while the team’s youth in the backcourt may be a concern come March, youngsters Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have already shown poise in big moments this season.

One sleeper in this crowded conference race: Wisconsin. The Badgers may not be explosive offensively, but are already 2–0 in the league with a road win at Iowa and know how to win close games. If this league is won at 15–5 (like last season) or 14–6, don’t count out Wisconsin.

Big 12: Kansas (Preseason: Baylor)

The tantalizing upside of this Baylor team in the preseason largely hasn’t come to fruition, thanks to some defensive woes and a slightly underwhelming season from freshman point guard Keyonte George. The Bears do have two great wins over UCLA and Gonzaga, but feel more like a second-tier contender than among the favorites to cut down the nets in Houston.

Meanwhile, Kansas has barely missed a beat despite losing three huge pieces from last year’s championship team in Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun and David McCormack. The Jayhawks share the ball at an elite level (ranking in the top 20 nationally in assist rate) and have the potential to be elite defensively, thanks to big man KJ Adams Jr.’s versatility and strong work on the perimeter from Dajuan Harris Jr. and Kevin McCullar Jr. The Jayhawks aren’t overwhelmingly talented, but all the pieces fit together perfectly. Plus, it’s incredibly hard to win at Allen Fieldhouse in conference play.

Pac-12: UCLA (Preseason: UCLA)

Arizona has been the trendy choice in the Pac-12 since UCLA lost both games at the Main Event in Las Vegas and the Wildcats rolled through the Maui Invitational. Arizona is better than anticipated, in no small part due to the growth of Oumar Ballo at center. Ballo’s improvement as a post scorer has helped soften the blow of Christian Koloko leaving for the NBA, and Kerr Kriisa’s passing ability helps make the Wildcats one of the best transition offenses in the country. The Wildcats are a legitimate national title contender.

That said, so is UCLA, and the Bruins are coming off arguably the best week any team has had all season with double-digit wins over Maryland and Kentucky. The Bruins have an elite “Big 3” of Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Jaylen Clark. Clark in particular has been a revelation, averaging more than 15 points and six rebounds while shooting over 60% from the field and emerging as a key offensive weapon after Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard departed for the pros. If freshmen Amari Bailey and Adem Bona can continue to emerge, this group has special upside.

SEC: Tennessee (Preseason: Kentucky)

Arguably our most competitive top-of-conference race is in the SEC, where four legitimate contenders have emerged. The worst of that quartet so far has been Kentucky, which still possesses major upside thanks to Oscar Tshiebwe at center. So far though, the Wildcats have lost their three biggest games on their schedule to date, often struggling to find flow offensively as veteran role players like Jacob Toppin, Antonio Reeves and CJ Fredrick have struggled. Even Wednesday’s win against lowly Florida A&M was far from impressive.

I was prepared to pick Arkansas to win the league, but news that star freshman Nick Smith Jr. is out indefinitely as he continues to deal with a right knee injury creates too much uncertainty. With talented forward Trevon Brazile already out, attrition may stop the Hogs from breaking through. That’s why we’ll go with the safe choice in Tennessee on the backs of the nation’s best defense. Alabama may be more well-equipped to win in March thanks to its balance and overall talent level, but the Vols could position themselves well for a No. 1 seed with a strong SEC record. As long as Zakai Zeigler can consistently create offense at point guard, this group might have enough to earn the top spot in the conference.