College Football Playoff Title Preview: Does TCU Stand a Chance Against Georgia?

Georgia wants to repeat as national champions. TCU wants to make history. Our experts take an early look at an unlikely CFP national title game matchup.

After two closely contested and highly entertaining College Football Playoff national semifinal showdowns Saturday, the title clash is set: defending champion and undefeated Georgia against this season’s Cinderella program from TCU.

As both teams get set to descend upon Los Angeles later this week for the Jan. 9 game at SoFi Stadium, here is an early look at the matchup between the No. 1 Bulldogs (14-0) and No. 3 Horned Frogs (13-1).

Matchup to Watch

TCU WR Quentin Johnston and QB Max Duggan vs. Georgia’s secondary.
Johnston didn’t seem to struggle against Michigan’s stout defensive secondary, catching six passes for 163 yards and a touchdown in the Fiesta Bowl. The performance continued a sensational season for Johnston, the junior from Temple, Texas, who has caught 65 passes for more than 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns. Duggan and his go-to target have proven that, no matter the brand and talent across the line of scrimmage, they can ball.

They now face a Georgia secondary that is coming off its worst two outings of the season—allowing 502 yards passing against LSU in the SEC championship game and another 348 yards against Ohio State in the Peach Bowl. The opposing quarterbacks in those games completed a combined 54 of 86 passes (63%), threw two interceptions and seven touchdowns against Kirby Smart’s group. The Georgia coach knows that trend will have to stop against TCU.—Ross Dellenger

Quentin Johnston had six catches for 163 yards for TCU in Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl.  :: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

X-Factor

Tight ends are not often X-Factors in games, but that will be the case heading into the championship game.
Darnell Washington, Georgia’s 6’7’’, 270-pound Goliath of a man, left Saturday’s semifinal in the first quarter with a left ankle injury and did not return. He was seen limping into the locker room with the help of two staff members. Smart told reporters afterward that he was unsure of the injury, which some have speculated to be an ankle sprain.

“We’ll have to evaluate and see,” Smart said. “The good news is he’s got more than a normal week [in between games]. I know he’ll do everything he can to get back. He’s headed out west toward where he’s from [he was born in Las Vegas]. It will be important to him to try to get back.”

Washington is a force as a blocking tight end, as well as a pass-catcher. He’s got 25 receptions for 403 yards this season. Washington combined with No. 1 tight end Brock Bowers gives Georgia one of the fiercest 1-2 combos in college football. Georgia’s main advantage against TCU is on the lines of scrimmage. Washington is a big piece of that. If he is not able to go against TCU, it will negatively affect Georgia’s power running game and red-zone passing.—R.D.

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What Georgia Needs to Do to Win

The Bulldogs were unsparing in the self-criticism of their performance against Ohio State. Their defense was shredded for much of the game, quarterback Stetson Bennett IV said he played “about 30 minutes of bad football,” and Georgia missed two field goals. So this is not a team that will come floating into the title game on a cloud of self-satisfaction and overlook TCU. The Bulldogs saw their playoff lives pass in front of their eyes in a 42-41 victory and recognize their fragility, even with a 14-0 record.

“If we want any chance of winning a national title, we have to play a lot better,” Smart said in the wee hours of Sunday morning.

In terms of specifics, Georgia must do a better job plastering receivers and rushing the passer. Ohio State’s wideouts had their way with Georgia’s secondary and quarterback C.J. Stroud had too much time to read coverage and room to scramble. TCU’s Duggan is a better runner than Stroud, so Georgia will be challenged with keeping him contained.

Georgia had a harder time against Ohio State’s passing plays in the Peach Bowl.  :: Brynn Anderson/AP

Offensively, Georgia will probably try to attain a better run-pass balance than it had against Ohio State. The Bulldogs only ran the ball 26 times, their lowest number since the season-opener against Oregon, and coordinator Todd Monken’s offense utilizes a lot of play-action in the passing game. With less of a running threat, there is less to fool defenders.

But Georgia can throw and run, and the depth of its receiving corps was on display on a huge night in the Peach Bowl. With Adonai Mitchell at full strength and Arian Smith flashing his sprinter speed, Bennett has a deep array of options to distribute the ball. As Michigan and others have shown, there are plenty of plays to make against the TCU defense.

Bottom line: Georgia’s A-game is good enough to beat TCU, and perhaps handily. If the Bulldogs clean up some errors and play closer to their season-long standard, they will be repeat national champions.—Pat Forde

What TCU Needs to Do to Win

One thing Georgia has been susceptible to in last year’s SEC championship game loss and Saturday’s close shave in the Peach Bowl: going against a truly elite wide receiver. The Horned Frogs have that in Quentin Johnston, and they are not afraid to use him either. Offensive coordinator Garrett Riley is great at finding creative ways to get Johnston the ball, including the screen pass-type plays that broke for a touchdown against Michigan on Saturday. It will likely take a game-breaking performance from Johnston to do the trick.

But if the title game becomes a track meet, playing a one-dimensional game against Georgia will be tough. Which means TCU will also need more production out of its running game, whichever running back plays (Kendre Miller or Emari Demercado). That is much easier said than done against a front anchored by Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter.

The Horned Frogs’ defense was salty against Michigan’s run game and still gave up over 40 points, although it played incredibly complementary football with two pick-sixes of its own. The defense may have to hold up without getting gifts like it did from Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy, but how holds up is unclear because it’s difficult to know what version of the Georgia offense we’re going to see. If the Bulldogs have Washington, TCU will need to bow up against the run like it did against the Wolverines. If Washington is out, Georgia has the wideout tandem in Mitchell and Smith to play more wide open than one would expect.—Richard Johnson