Bracket Watch: The Battle for the No. 1 Overall Seed Heats Up

Some top-line stumbles have allowed a new team to lead our projected men’s field of 68.

We’re less than four weeks away from Selection Sunday, so Bracket Watch is taking things up a notch. For the rest of the season, we’ll update Sports Illustrated’s projected men’s NCAA tournament field twice a week (Tuesdays and Fridays) so that you get the most up-to-date look at where your team stands as we rapidly approach March.

Here’s a look at the latest updates, which includes a blueblood dropping out of the field, a few bubble teams solidifying their place among the 68 and a new No. 1 overall seed. 

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes:

Boise State
West Virginia
Mississippi State
Memphis

Last Four In:

Texas A&M
USC
Kentucky
New Mexico

First Four Out:

North Carolina
Clemson
Wisconsin
Seton Hall

Next Four Out:

Oregon
Arizona State
Utah
Utah State

On the whole, it was a brutal weekend for bubble teams, so results that might have seemed like they’d knock a team out of our projected field didn’t do as much damage as you might expect. New Mexico and USC each took Quad 3 losses but stayed in the bracket thanks to bad losses by the likes of Florida and Wisconsin. That said, North Carolina does fall from the last team in to the first team out, as the Heels now are 0–8 in Quad 1 games now that their win over Ohio State is outside the top quadrant.

That said, it’s again worth zooming in on Kentucky’s résumé, after the Wildcats took a less-than-ideal loss at Georgia over the weekend to fall into the Last Four In. At least four and potentially five of the Wildcats’ final six games will be in Quadrant 1, so Kentucky will either play its way in or knock itself out of the Big Dance in the next few weeks. Its road win over Tennessee will carry the Wildcats only so far, particularly with the Vols stumbling themselves. 

* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

Alabama and Houston are both currently on the No. 1 line :: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

South Region

No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 Morehead State*/Alcorn State*
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Michigan State
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 San Diego State* vs. No. 11 Mississippi State
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 Providence vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington*

Alabama edges out Purdue for the No. 1 overall seed for the first time in our projected bracket. The margins there are tight, though the Tide could boost their hopes for the top overall spot by winning on the road at Tennessee later this week. A second elite road win to go with the Crimson Tide’s victory at Houston would make Alabama’s résumé hard to top.

Further down the seed list is San Diego State, which climbs to the No. 6 line in this update. There’s a lot to like about the Aztecs’ résumé: No bad losses, eight wins across the top two quadrants and the first-place spot in the highly competitive Mountain West. They’ll get two more Q1 chances later this month against New Mexico and Boise State with an opportunity to further bolster their résumé. 

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson*/Howard*
No. 8 Florida Atlantic* vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Drake*
No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 Rutgers vs. No. 11 Memphis
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara*
No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 West Virginia
No. 2 UCLA* vs. No. 15 Vermont*

Tennessee has fallen off in the last two weeks, losing three of four to fall from potential No. 1 seed down to the No. 3 line. With two elite wins over Kansas and Texas and sky-high predictive metrics, the floor is fairly high seed-wise, but it won’t be easy for the Vols to right the ship with games against Alabama, Kentucky and Texas A&M in their next three.

The big winner of the weekend was Northwestern, which has essentially secured its place in the NCAA tournament field after beating Purdue and moving to 9–5 in the Big Ten. The Wildcats’ predictive metrics aren’t great, but they rank in the top 30 of both the KPI and strength of record. With six Quad 1 wins and no bad losses, Northwestern should cruise to its second men’s NCAA tourney berth. 

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West Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M–Corpus Christi*
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Arkansas
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 Kent State*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Southern Miss*
No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Texas A&M/USC
No. 3 Marquette* vs. No. 14 Furman*
No. 7 Duke vs. No. 10 Auburn
No. 2 Texas* vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville*

Marquette vs. Xavier on Wednesday night is a key bracket game as both teams try to lock up protected top-four seeds. Marquette is our last No. 3 seed in this update, and adding another quality win while solidifying itself as the top team in the Big East would be huge for the Golden Eagles.

Indiana’s climb continues, as the Hoosiers’ weekend road win at Michigan helped IU move up to the No. 4 line in this update. The Hoosiers have three of their next four on the road, which means plenty more opportunities to potentially move up the seed list with wins. A No. 3 seed is definitely within the realm of possibility for Trayce Jackson-Davis & Co. 

East Region

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Milwaukee*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Pittsburgh*
No. 5 Saint Mary’s* vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 VCU*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Kentucky/New Mexico
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Hofstra*
No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Nevada
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Rider*

Kansas is starting to get some breathing room on the top line thanks to losses by Arizona, Texas, Tennessee and more in the last week. KU’s résumé, with 11 Quad 1 wins, is incredibly impressive, and the only thing that can knock the Jayhawks off that top line is overall quantity of losses. If the Jayhawks enter Selection Sunday with eight defeats or fewer, I feel good about them securing that final No. 1 seed.

Pittsburgh is the new projected automatic qualifier from the ACC but has put itself on relatively solid footing for an at-large, assuming the Panthers don’t win the ACC tournament. The Panthers face just one projected NCAA tournament team in their final six regular-season games. Depending on how you spin it, that could be good news (easier to navigate) or bad (higher chance of a bad loss that could jeopardize their standing).