Bracket Watch: How Much Will Purdue Be Punished for Recent Losses?

The NCAA tournament selection committee will release their current top teams Saturday afternoon, which will give insight into what they value most.

We’ve reached a key milestone in the race to Selection Sunday: the selection committee’s top 16 reveal. The NCAA tournament selection committee will release the current top 16 overall teams Saturday afternoon, which can give us a few tips on where certain teams stand as well as teach us some lessons about what the committee values most.

Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s projected top 16, as well as an update on the entire field of 68 heading into a critical weekend in college basketball.

Projected Top 16:

1. Alabama
2. Purdue
3. Houston
4. Kansas
5. Texas
6. UCLA
7. Arizona
8. Tennessee
9. Baylor
10. Marquette
11. Iowa State
12. Virginia
13. UConn
14. Xavier
15. Gonzaga
16. Indiana

 The top things I’ll be watching:

• How much will the committee punish Purdue for losing three of its last four games? All three losses have been in tricky road games against NCAA tournament teams, but the Boilermakers may have dashed their hopes for the No. 1 overall seed, and it won’t be a shock if Houston or Kansas usurped them on the seed list.
  
• How important will head-to-head be? There are plenty of examples within likely top-16 teams, like Arizona’s win over Tennessee, Marquette’s win over Baylor and Xavier’s sweep of UConn. My philosophy favors total body of work over one individual game, but these can be useful tiebreakers.
  
• Where will the WCC teams rank? Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s each have interesting cases for inclusion in the back end of the top 16. Saint Mary’s doesn’t have great wins other than beating Gonzaga at home, but its metrics are top-notch. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has top-tier wins over Alabama, Xavier and Michigan State (all on neutral courts), but a bad loss and mediocre metrics.

On the Bubble:

Last Four Byes:

Texas A&M
Boise State
West Virginia
Memphis

Last Four In:

Kentucky
Mississippi State
Wisconsin
North Carolina

First Four Out:

USC
Clemson
Seton Hall
Arizona State

Next Four Out:

New Mexico
Oregon
Penn State
College of Charleston

* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

South Region

No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Alcorn State*
No. 8 Rutgers vs. No. 9 Pittsburgh*
No. 5 Kansas State vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 San Diego State* vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/Wisconsin
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Youngstown State*
No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 Arkansas
No. 2 UCLA* vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State*

Iowa State stopped a bit of a skid by beating TCU on Wednesday and stayed on SI’s projected No. 3 seed line in the process. The Cyclones have eight Quad 1 wins, fifth in Division 1. That’s enough to keep them very high on the seed list despite having eight total losses.

If there was any doubt before, Maryland officially punched its ticket to the NCAA tournament Thursday by beating the Boilermakers. The Terrapins have kept a clean résumé with no bad losses and have quality victories over Purdue, Miami, Indiana and Illinois. With a manageable schedule (by Big Ten standards) ahead, don’t be surprised if the Terps keep climbing the seed list down the stretch.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 FDU/Howard*
No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 FAU*
No. 5 Saint Mary's* vs. No. 12 Kent State*
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 13 Hofstra*
No. 6 Illinois vs. No. 11 Kentucky/North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Eastern Washington*
No. 7 Duke vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Tennessee vs. 15 UNC Asheville*

Tennessee’s drop to the No. 3 line last update was a brief one, as the Vols’ win over Alabama pushed them back to No. 2. You’ll be hard-pressed to find a team with three better wins than the Vols’ victories over Kansas, Alabama and Texas, three of SI’s top five projected teams on the seed list.

Florida Atlantic remains on solid footing for an at-large despite its road loss to MTSU Thursday. That loss is currently in Quad 2, and the Owls have the good wins and metrics to make up for a loss like that. Should they win out in their remaining four games of the regular season, FAU should have no problems on Selection Sunday regardless of what happens in the C-USA tournament.

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West Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-CC*
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Drake*
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Providence vs. No. 11 Memphis
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Samford*

Providence effectively counteracted its bad loss over the weekend to St. John’s by knocking off Creighton on Tuesday, continuing its home dominance under Ed Cooley. Those home wins are slightly less valuable in the eyes of the selection committee, but beating a team as well-regarded as Creighton bumped the Friars up to a projected No. 6 seed.

Memphis won’t earn any style points for its win Thursday over UCF that saw the Tigers attempt just one shot in the game’s final 5:21 due to turnover woes, but it did hold serve and stays in our “last four byes.” Now, the Tigers get a crack at Houston on Sunday, the type of win that would solidify Memphis’s place in the field.

East Region

No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Rider*
No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 9 Nevada
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Southern Miss*
No. 6 Northwestern vs. No. 11 West Virginia
No. 3 Marquette* vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 TCU vs. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Vermont*

The climb continues for Northwestern, which is up to a No. 6 seed in our projections after beating Indiana at home Wednesday. The only thing holding it back from an even higher seed are middling quality-based metrics, such as its No. 46 mark in KenPom.

West Virginia has no problem with its quality-based metrics, currently sitting at No. 21 in KenPom and in the top 25 of the NET. Its place in the field hasn’t been locked in just yet, though, because of its quantity of losses, with 11 overall and a 4–9 mark in Big 12 play. This weekend’s home game against Texas Tech is essentially a must-win to ensure a good enough record to go dancing.