Bracket Watch: UNC Dangerously Close to Missing NCAA Tournament

As Selection Sunday approaches, The Tar Heels—who were ranked No. 1 going into the season—are looking more underwhelming by the day.

We’re less than three weeks away from Selection Sunday, and the picture of who will be dancing and who won’t be is starting to get clearer. The NCAA tournament selection committee did its annual top 16 reveal Saturday to give us an idea of where things stand, and there’s been plenty of movement after a loaded weekend of action.

Here’s Sports Illustrated’s latest projected bracket, with notes on some risers and fallers as February winds down.

ON THE BUBBLE:

Last Four Byes:

Missouri
Oklahoma State
Boise State
West Virginia

Last Four In:

Memphis
Mississippi State
USC
Wisconsin

First Four Out:

New Mexico
Seton Hall
North Carolina
North Texas

Next Four Out

Penn State
Utah State
Texas Tech
Clemson

North Carolina falls out of the field after yet another missed opportunity in a Quad 1 game, this time on the road at NC State. The Tar Heels’ résumé looks more and more underwhelming by the day, and the preseason No. 1 team in the polls is now dangerously close to missing the NCAA tournament altogether. UNC will need to beat at least one—and likely both—Virginia and Duke down the stretch to go dancing.

Meanwhile, West Virginia will be one of the more interesting teams to track down the stretch. Metrics say the Mountaineers are a clear NCAA tournament-caliber team, but WVU has taken tons of losses in the loaded Big 12. With 12 losses already and road games at Kansas and Iowa State looming in the next seven days, WVU may need to make noise in the Big 12 tournament just to ensure it sits far enough above .500 to get in.

* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

South Region

No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Alcorn State*
No. 8 Rutgers vs. No. 9 FAU*
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 San Diego State* vs. No. 11 West Virginia
No. 3 Virginia* vs. No. 14 Youngstown State*
No. 7 Duke vs. No. 10 Missouri
No. 2 UCLA* vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State*

UCLA coach Mick Cronin made headlines with his criticism of the selection committee’s No. 8 overall ranking of the Bruins. I had UCLA pegged a bit higher, but putting them No. 8 at this point feels quite justifiable considering the team’s two best wins are against Maryland and Kentucky. Three of the team’s final four games are set to be Quad 1 matchups, including a season-ending clash with Arizona, so they’ll have the opportunities to climb the seed list down the stretch.

UConn not being included in the NCAA’s top 16 reveal was notable, particularly given the team’s top-10 ranking in KenPom and the NET. Quantity of losses seems to be the biggest cause for pause with the Huskies’ résumé right now, though a run through the Big East tournament could cause a major rise down the stretch. A top-4 seed and the chance to likely play just over two hours from campus in Albany in the first weekend is a nice target.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Howard/FDU*
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 NC State
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Drake*
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Boise State
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Vermont*

Houston moves to the No. 2 overall seed and the Midwest region, corresponding with the committee’s choice to rank the Cougars ahead of Purdue on Saturday. Houston probably has some breathing room to stay on the No. 1 line—avoid any losses outside of Quad 1 down the stretch, and the Cougars will get a top seed.

Pitt’s Jeff Capel sounded off on the lack of national respect for the ACC, perhaps because the Panthers can’t quite escape bubble territory despite their 12–4 mark in league play. But when you go 1–4 in nonconference play against top-100 opponents and nearly half your conference wins are against teams ranked No. 197 or worse in KenPom, it’s hard to lock in a spot in the Big Dance. The Panthers should be fine, but avoiding a bad loss down the stretch is imperative.

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East Region

No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-CC*
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Nevada
No. 5 Saint Mary's* vs. No. 12 Kent State*
No. 4 Marquette* vs. No. 13 Southern Miss*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/USC
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Samford*

Road games are where teams can really make their hay from a seeding standpoint, and Iowa State gets a huge opportunity to do that Tuesday at Texas. The Cyclones currently sit on the No. 3 line but could use one more résumé-topping win to lock up a top-three seed and winning at Texas could even vault ISU into the No. 2 seed conversation.

Saint Mary’s was a loser of the selection committee’s bracket preview, not hearing its name called among the top 16 despite its lofty quality-based metrics. Beating Gonzaga in Spokane this weekend would give the Gaels a good chance of rising up, but otherwise a No. 5 seed might be the ceiling due to their two Quad 3 losses.

West Region

No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 UNC Asheville*
No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 9 Auburn
No. 5 Northwestern vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Hofstra*
No. 6 Providence vs. No. 11 Memphis/Wisconsin
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Iona*
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington*

Kansas continues to lap the field when it comes to Quad 1 wins, as the Jayhawks now have a whopping 14 such victories after winning at TCU on Monday. No other team has more than nine Quad 1 wins. There’s a case to be made that if KU wins the Big 12, it deserves the No. 1 overall seed, and at this point I wouldn’t rule that out. They’d likely need one to two more losses from Alabama to make it happen, but the Jayhawks have a special résumé.

The rise for No. 5 seed Northwestern continues after the Wildcats won their fifth straight game over the weekend. If you just look at quality wins and résumé-based metrics like strength of record and KPI, Northwestern has a case for a top-four protected seed. Quality-based metrics like KenPom aren’t as high on the Wildcats, which will likely make the No. 5 line feel like the ceiling. Still, it has been a remarkable season for Chris Collins’ team, which was picked 13th in the Big Ten in the preseason and has made the NCAA tournament just once before in program history.