Bracket Watch: UNC Is on the Bubble

The Tar Heels are one of a handful of teams looking to make their case in a stacked slate of games with major tournament implications.

The last weekend of February is here, and conference tournaments get underway early next week in college basketball. This weekend’s slate is a huge one, with three ranked-vs.-ranked matchups and several key games with major implications for bubble teams. Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s latest projected NCAA tournament field, with notes on what the weekend ahead could do to change things for Selection Sunday.

ON THE BUBBLE: 

Last Four Byes

Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Boise State

Last Four In

Memphis
USC
Wisconsin
Mississippi State

First Four Out

North Carolina
New Mexico
Texas Tech
Utah State

Next Four Out

Penn State
Seton Hall
College of Charleston
Michigan

North Carolina earned very few style points in its ugly win over Notre Dame Wednesday, but the Tar Heels did stay alive in the at-large picture with the win heading into a huge matchup with Virginia on Saturday. It’s hard to see a path without finding a way to win that game. This is as big a bubble game as we’ve had all year.

A pair of Big Ten teams still lurking in the bubble conversation: Penn State and Michigan. Each got key road wins Thursday night over Ohio State and Rutgers, respectively, and now sit in our “Next Four Out.” Both teams now have to protect home court over the weekend to keep their dwindling at-large hopes alive, with the Nittany Lions taking on Rutgers and Michigan hosting Wisconsin.

South Region

No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Alcorn State*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Nevada
No. 5 Miami* vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Hofstra*
No. 6 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Oklahoma State
No. 3 Marquette* vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Arkansas vs. No. 10 FAU*
No. 2 Kansas State vs. No. 15 Vermont*

Michigan State climbed to our No. 6 line after beating Indiana this week, and the Spartans’ showdown with another Big Ten team jockeying for seeding in Iowa Saturday provides yet another Quad 1 opportunity for MSU. The Spartans already have eight such wins, tied for fourth-most nationally.

Anecdotally, injuries seem to be taken into account less by the committee than fans tend to expect. That said, if there’s a team that deserves an extra set of eyes on its résumé due to player absences, it’s Arkansas. Star freshman Nick Smith Jr. returned four games ago from a knee injury and is starting to look like the player he was projected to be, pouring in a career-high 26 points against Georgia on Tuesday. The Razorbacks get a huge opportunity to make a statement Saturday at Alabama, but if they lose that game will probably feel under-seeded on Selection Sunday relative to how dangerous this team could be in the Big Dance. 

Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Howard/FDU*
No. 8 Rutgers vs. No. 9 Missouri
No. 5 Saint Mary’s* vs. No. 12 Drake*
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 San Diego State* vs. No. 11 Memphis/USC
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Eastern Washington*
No. 7 Providence vs. No. 10 West Virginia
No. 2 UCLA* vs. No. 15 Youngstown State*

Since Feb. 1, no team has played better than San Diego State, according to T-Rank. The Aztecs have a strong résumé already but get a chance at another solid road win Saturday when they take on a New Mexico team that handed them one of their five losses this season. A top-four seed isn’t out of the question if SDSU can win out through the Mountain West tournament.

Rutgers has dropped four of its last five since losing starting forward Mawot Mag for the season due to an ACL tear. That has included home losses to a pair of likely nontournament teams in Nebraska and Michigan. The Scarlet Knights aren’t on the bubble just yet, but things could get dicey in a hurry—particularly if RU loses over the weekend at Penn State. 

Texas has a chance to jump onto the No. 1 line :: Scott Wachter/USA TODAY Sports

East Region

No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-CC*
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 NC State
No. 5 Xavier vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Iona*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Boise State
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 Duke vs. No. 10 Auburn
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Samford*

If a team is going to climb onto the No. 1 line that isn’t there right now, it’s probably Texas. The Longhorns, fifth in the NCAA tournament selection committee’s bracket preview last week, have three massive opportunities to close the regular season, starting Saturday on the road at Baylor. After that, Texas rounds out Big 12 play with a road tilt against TCU and a home showdown with Kansas. Going 2–1 in that stretch would make quite a statement.

Virginia’s play of late has been concerning. After struggling mightily with lowly Notre Dame and Louisville, the Cavaliers got picked off Wednesday against Boston College. It’s the first bad loss of the season for UVA, but Virginia hasn’t moved the needle much in conference play thanks to a weak ACC schedule, and the team’s quality metrics have tumbled in recent weeks. They drop to a No. 4 seed in this update and could really use a Quad 1 road win at North Carolina on Saturday.

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West Region

No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 UNC Asheville*
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 Northwestern vs. No. 12 Marshall*
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/Wisconsin
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Toledo*
No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State*

Gonzaga’s last big chance to make a statement to the committee comes Saturday when the Bulldogs host Saint Mary’s. It’s a game with significant seeding implications for both teams: The winner likely locking up a protected top-four seed, the loser sweating it out entering the WCC tournament. Adding another top-tier win to a résumé that also features victories over Alabama, Xavier, Michigan State and Kentucky would make the Zags’ case rather unimpeachable.

Illinois is 9–9 in games against the top two quadrants, but the Illini remain a difficult team to seed because of their two elite wins over Texas and UCLA in nonconference play. A strong finish could push the Illini into the mix for a top-four seed, but a losing skid might drop them into an 8–9 game. One thing is certain: No No. 1 seed wants to see this Illinois team in the second round.