Breaking Down the First 14 Conference Tournaments That Will Kick Off the Madness

Before the Big Dance comes the Little Dance. Here are the teams, dreams and dark horses you should keep an eye on as the action begins.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball, where Oral Roberts finishes the regular season as the only Division I team to go undefeated in conference play—and nobody went winless:

FIRST HALF: Eight Men’s College Hoops Trends to Watch

SECOND HALF

THE LITTLE DANCE

For the megalomaniacs who want to ruin perfection and expand the NCAA tournament (21), the rebuttal to that terrible idea begins this week. Fact is, March Madness starts now, with the conference tournaments. This is the Little Dance that begets the Big Dance.

The power brokers want greater access to a championship? Well, every eligible Division I program that made its conference tournament has NCAA championship access. Of the 363 D-I teams, two are independents without access to an automatic bid (Chicago State and Hartford), while 11 others are transitional members coming from Division II and thus ineligible.

That leaves 350 teams. Per back-of-the-napkin Minutes math Monday morning, 334 of those will play in their conference tourneys. That’s the de facto size of the NCAA tourney.

Those 334 are vying for 32 automatic bids or one of 36 at-large bids. Win your conference tourney, advance from Little Dance to Big Dance. Tape a Ted Lasso “Believe” sign in the locker room and go for it.

We don’t need to expand the NCAA tournament to create extra at-large bids for power conference underachievers like Penn State (22), a bubble team that scored three points in the final nine minutes at home while blowing a 19-point lead against Rutgers on Sunday. Or like Oregon (23), which played zero nonconference road games and left the state only once before Jan. 5. Or like North Carolina, with its 1–8 Quad 1 record.

Don’t reward well-funded mediocrity. Don’t mess with 68. Championship access begins now.

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BREAKDOWNS, PART I

A look at the first 14 league tourneys, which begin this week. The Minutes will cover the other 18 next week.

America East (24).

Dates: March 4–11.

League Pomeroy ranking: 25th out of 32.

All-time March heroes (using current league membership): UMBC, which has the historical claim to being the first and only No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed, dispatching Virginia in 2018.

Regular-season champion: Vermont, for the seventh straight season.

Dark horse: UMass Lowell isn’t much of a dark horse, finishing second in the league. But the River Hawks (24–7) are the only realistic threat to Vermont, having split the regular-season series with the Catamounts.

Dash pick: Vermont. John Becker’s incredibly consistent program benefited from the arrival of Bellarmine transfer Dylan Penn. The Catamounts are on an 11-game winning streak and are 9–1 at home. That’s an important thing when the league tourney is played entirely on the home courts of the higher-seeded teams.

Atlantic Sun (25).

Dates: Feb. 27–March 5.

League Pomeroy ranking: 19th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Long before there was an A-Sun, Jacksonville made the 1970 national championship game before losing to UCLA. (In terms of actual A-Sun membership at the time of competition, Florida Gulf Coast’s 2013 Sweet 16 run would be it.)

Regular-season champion: Liberty and Kennesaw State are co-champions. Kennesaw State is the No. 1 seed.

Dark horse: Seventh-seed North Florida surged late in the season, winning six of its last eight with the two losses by a combined four points. The Ospreys don’t guard much, but they can get hot from the outside and create some bracket havoc.

Dash pick: Liberty. The Flames have had the best overall season, have a coach who knows how to win in March in Ritchie McKay and have the league’s best player in guard Darius McGhee (22.3 ppg.)

Big Sky (26).

Dates: March 4–8.

League Pomeroy ranking: 17th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Idaho State made the Elite Eight in 1977, shocking UCLA in the Sweet 16 before falling to UNLV.

Regular-season champion: Eastern Washington.

Dark horse: Second-place Montana State has won nine of its last 10 games and has the league’s best Pomeroy rating, at No. 113.

Dash pick: Montana State. The reigning tourney champions imported guard help via the transfer portal to pair with their returning interior size. The league’s best defensive team should be able to get enough stops to repeat.

Big South (27).

Dates: March 1–5.

League Pomeroy ranking: 22nd out of 32.

All-time March heroes: In 2007, Winthrop earned a No. 11 seed and upset Notre Dame in the first round.

Regular-season champion: UNC Asheville won the league by four games.

Dark horse: Sixth-seed Winthrop has won four in a row and does have a victory over Asheville in January.

Dash pick: Asheville. The Bulldogs are the best defensive team in the league and also have the best player, 6'11" Drew Pember, a tough matchup for the rest of the Big South. Pember plus sharpshooters Tajion Jones (46% from three) and Fletcher Abee (42%) can stretch a defense.

Colonial Athletic (28).

Dates: March 3–7.

League Pomeroy ranking: 26th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: As a No. 13 seed in 2002, UNC Wilmington knocked off USC in overtime and then pushed eventual national runner-up Indiana in the second round before falling.

Regular-season champion: Charleston and Hofstra tied for the title, with Hofstra earning the No. 1 tournament seed.

Dark horse: Fourth-seed Towson (20–11) split with Hofstra and took Charleston into overtime in one of its two losses to the Cougars.

Dash pick: Charleston. This is an NCAA tournament team regardless of whether it captures this tournament, but the Cougars (28–3) should win it. They’ve lost two games by a total of five points since Nov. 11. A championship game showdown with Hofstra would be one of the best games in any conference tourney.

Charleston looks like an NCAA tourney team regardless of whether or not they win the Colonial Athletic championship :: David Yeazell/USA TODAY Sports

Horizon (29).

Dates: Feb. 28–March 7.

League Pomeroy ranking: 21st out of 32.

All-time March heroes: The 1986 Cleveland State team, coached by Kevin Mackey and led by guard Mouse McFadden, crashed the Sweet 16 as a No. 14 seed by upsetting Indiana and Saint Joseph’s. The Vikings lost by a point in the third round to David Robinson and Navy.

Regular-season champion: Youngstown State, the Penguins’ first Division I conference title.

Dark horse: Third-seed Cleveland State has won five of its last six and eight of its last 11 entering the tourney.

Dash pick: Cleveland State. This tournament tends to be wild, with the top seed winning only one of the last seven championships and making only three of the last seven finals. So prepare for chaos and pick against the Penguins, as good a story as they have been this season.

Missouri Valley (30).

Dates: March 2–5.

League Pomeroy ranking: 16th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: There is a lot to choose from here. Give the nod to Indiana State’s 1979 national runner-up team, which Larry Bird led to a 33–0 record before losing to Magic Johnson and Michigan State in the title game that did more than any to turn March Madness into a national phenomenon.

Regular-season champion: Bradley.

Dark horse: Third-seed Belmont won four of its last five and can run up big scoring differentials from the three-point line. If the Bruins get hot and stay hot outside, their first year in the Valley could yield an Arch Madness title.

Dash pick: Drake. The second-seeded Bulldogs shoot well, guard well enough and have the league’s best player in Tucker DeVries, the coach’s son. Drake had run off 10 straight wins before losing the regular-season finale at Bradley. A rubber game between the two with an NCAA bid on the line would be great fun.

Drake has the Missouri Valley Conference’s best player in Tucker DeVries :: Margaret Kispert/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

Northeast (31).

Dates: March 1–7.

League Pomeroy ranking: 32nd out of 32.

All-time March heroes: There aren’t many, since none of the current membership has ever won anything beyond a First Four game. But give the honor to Fairleigh Dickinson’s No. 16 seed in 1985, which scared the daylights out of No. 1 seed Michigan before falling, 59–55.

Regular-season champion: Merrimack, which is the tourney No. 1 seed despite not being eligible for the NCAAs as a D-II transitional member. Which means someone else will get the bid, even if Merrimack wins the tourney.

Dark horse: Fifth-seed Wagner has the best KenPom rating in the league (barely) and split in the regular season with Merrimack.

Dash pick: Merrimack is on an eight-game winning streak, with an average victory margin of 12.3 points. Give the Warriors the hardware, then give Fairleigh Dickinson the autobid for making the title game.

Ohio Valley (32).

Dates: March 1–4.

League Pomeroy ranking: 29th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Austin Peay’s 1973 team, led by New York guard Fly Williams, won its first-round NCAA game and then took Kentucky to overtime in the second round before submitting. Williams, a scoring sensation for two seasons before turning pro, spawned the famous chant, “Fly is open, let’s go Peay!”

Regular-season champion: Morehead State.

Dark horse: Pickings are a bit slim since Belmont, Murray State and Eastern Kentucky departed the league. But go with sixth-seed SIU Edwardsville. The Cougars have been all over the map this season in terms of performance, but if they catch fire, they can steal this.

Dash pick: Morehead. Don’t overthink it—the Eagles have won 11 of their last 12, guard tenaciously, shoot well from the perimeter and have a coach in Preston Spradlin who has won this thing before. They won the league by three games for a reason.

Patriot (33).

Dates: Feb. 28–March 8.

League Pomeroy ranking: 27th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: The exploits are a bit musty, but Holy Cross won the 1947 NCAA title and also made the ’48 Final Four with Bob Cousy playing point guard.

Regular-season champion: Colgate, by six games.

Dark horse: Navy, realistically, but the Midshipmen are the No. 2 seed. Seventh-seed American is the only team to beat the Raiders, by a point in early February with a startling late rally. That’s good enough for The Minutes.

Dash pick: Colgate. Matt Langel has built the dominant program in the league, winning three of the last four tournaments and four of the last five regular-season titles. Colgate’s efficient offense flows through a strong senior quartet of Keegan Records, Tucker Richardson, Oliver Lynch-Daniels and Ryan Moffatt, plus talented freshman Braedan Smith.

Southern (34).

Dates: March 3–6.

League Pomeroy ranking: 20th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: In 1976, VMI crashed the Elite Eight by upsetting Tennessee and DePaul. The Keydets were stopped from reaching the Final Four by an undefeated Rutgers team.

Regular-season champion: Furman and Samford tied for the title, with Furman drawing the top seed for the tourney.

Dark horse: Third-seed UNC Greensboro has won 11 of its last 14 games, and coach Mike Jones has won an automatic bid before while at Radford. The Spartans’ defense will keep them in games.

Dash pick: Furman. Coach Bob Richey and his core group have had their share of SoCon tourney agony, including a last-second loss in the title game a year ago on a long three. This time the Paladins will break through, though Samford is a capable opponent.

Summit (35).

Dates: March 3–7.

League Pomeroy ranking: 24th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Go all the way back to 2021 and No. 15 seed Oral Roberts’ stunning Sweet 16 run, upsetting Ohio State and Florida and having a shot in the air to beat Arkansas.

Regular-season champion: Oral Roberts stormed through the league, going 18–0 and winning it by five games.

Dark horse: Second-seed South Dakota State doesn’t qualify as a dark horse, but the Jackrabbits do qualify as the only school other than ORU that can win this tourney.

Dash pick: Oral Roberts is the only logical choice. However, a championship game matchup with South Dakota State could provide some quality viewing entertainment after a close battle in Brookings to end the regular season.

Sun Belt (36).

Dates: Feb. 28–March 6.

League Pomeroy ranking: 13th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Have to go with Georgia State’s 2015 team, a. No. 14 seed that shocked No. 3 Baylor on a deep three by coach’s son R.J. Hunter. Ron Hunter, immobilized and sitting on a stool after tearing his Achilles during the celebration of the Sun Belt title, tipped over sideways onto the floor after his son’s winning shot.

Regular-season champion: League newcomer Southern Mississippi, which hadn’t won a conference title since 2001.

Dark horse: Third seed Marshall has the league’s best KenPom rating (No. 79) and plays at a tempo that can be uncomfortable for opponents.

Dash pick: Marshall. Coach Dan D’Antoni won a CUSA tournament title as a No. 4 seed a few years back, then upset West Virginia in the NCAA first round. Go with the Thundering Herd in what seems like a wide-open tourney.

James Snook/USA TODAY Sports

West Coast (37).

Dates: March 2–7.

League Pomeroy ranking: Ninth out of 32.

All-time March heroes: As good as Gonzaga has been lately, that honor belongs to San Francisco’s repeat national champions of 1955, and ’56, Bill Russell presiding.

Regular-season champion: Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga tied for first, with the Gaels getting the top seed.

Dark horse: Third-seed Santa Clara has won seven straight games. But don’t forget about Loyola Marymount, which upset both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.

Dash pick: Gonzaga. This team is not as good as the previous two editions Mark Few has had, but it’s still the best team in the league and rounding into form well in the final weeks.

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

Shaka Smart (38), Marquette. The Golden Eagles have clinched at least a tie for the Big East title and should lock up solo possession of that either Tuesday against Butler or Saturday against St. John’s. This is Marquette’s first Big East title in a decade, and it comes with a team that was picked ninth in the preseason conference poll. Outstanding work by Smart.

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Nate Oats (39), Alabama. This shouldn’t require any explanation, but if some is needed, then read this and this and this. Rarely, if ever, has a coach won two games and had a worse week than Oats did.

BUZZER BEATER

When hungry and thirsty in the Tobacco Road city of Durham, The Minutes suggests a stop at Bull City Burger and Brewery (40). Try the Green Monster burger and a SHIPA IPA, and thank The Minutes later.