Forde Minutes: Welcome to Championship Week

Making picks for every men’s conference tournament left between now and Selection Sunday.

Scott Wachter/USA TODAY Sports (Wilson); Thomas Shea/USA TODAY Sports (Sasser)

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball (first-ever pair of dance shoes sold separately at Kennesaw State):

First Half: Five questions before the Big Dance

LITTLE DANCE, PART II

The Minutes’ conference tournament primer—with picks—covers the remaining 18 tourneys that will play out between now and Sunday afternoon.

American Athletic Conference

Conference rank: ninth out of 32, per Ken Pomeroy’s ratings.

All-time March heroes (using current membership): Cincinnati’s 1961 and ’62 national champions, who narrowly missed a three-peat in ’63. That would have established the Bearcats as the only back-to-back-to-back champions not named UCLA.

Top seed: Houston.

Dark horse: Memphis doesn’t really count as a No. 2 seed. A case could be made for Cincinnati, which is solid at both ends of the floor and has played both Houston and Memphis tough on the road. Cincy coach Wes Miller has a 13–9 career record in conference tourneys, with two NCAA bids while at UNC-Greensboro.

Minutes pick: Houston (8). The Cougars have won the last four AAC tourneys and are heavy favorites to make it five straight after once again dominating the league.

Atlantic Coast

Conference rank: seventh out of 32.

Tourney teams: Miami, Virginia, Duke, Pittsburgh, NC State.

Bubble teams: Clemson, North Carolina.

All-time March heroes: Duke’s 1992 repeat national champions went 34–2, were ranked No. 1 every week of the season and won one of the greatest games ever played, against Kentucky in the Elite Eight.

Top seed: Miami (9). The Hurricanes won eight of their last nine to earn a share of their first ACC title in a decade.

Dark horse: Fourth-seeded Duke has significantly improved over the last month, utilizing a more deliberate tempo and strong defense to win six in a row. The Blue Devils are allowing just 61.7 points over their past seven games. A rookie head coach and several key freshmen are figuring it out together.

Weirdest team: North Carolina (10), case closed. The seventh-seeded Tar Heels likely will have to win three ACC games—which would put them in the final—to have a chance at making the field. Otherwise, they’ll go down as the biggest preseason No. 1 bust in the 61-year history of the AP preseason rankings.

Best early matchup: A Pittsburgh-Duke quarterfinal would be a quality matchup of former Blue Devils guards and Mike Krzyzewski assistants, in Jeff Capel and Jon Scheyer.

Minutes pick: Duke (11).

Rob Kinnan/USA TODAY Sports

Atlantic 10

Conference rank: 12th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: La Salle has been to only one NCAA tournament this century, but the Explorers did win it all once, in 1954. La Salle also was the runner-up the next season, losing to San Francisco and Bill Russell.

Top seed: Virginia Commonwealth. The Rams won the league by three games, finishing on a six-game winning streak.

Dark horse: Saint Louis. The fourth-seeded Billikens are a gifted offensive team, with point guard Yuri Collins leading the nation in assist rate. He and running mate Javonte Perkins are motivated to make their first NCAA tournament.

Minutes pick: Saint Louis (12). This tends to be a wild tournament, with seven different champions in its last seven iterations—and only one of those was the regular-season champ.

Big East

Conference rank: fourth out of 32.

Tourney teams: Marquette, Xavier, Connecticut, Creighton, Providence.

Bubble teams: Villanova or Seton Hall might be able to mount an argument by reaching the tourney final, but probably need to win the whole thing.

All-time March heroes: The 1998–99 UConn Huskies went 34–2 and won the national title by beating a Duke team that was being proclaimed an all-time great before the game.

Top seed: Marquette (13). The Golden Eagles won their first Big East title in a decade.

Dark horse: Sixth-seed Villanova (14) has won six of its last eight and is playing much better since star Justin Moore returned 11 games ago from an Achilles injury in last year’s NCAA tournament. But Jay Wright isn’t on the bench anymore for the Wildcats.

Weirdest team: Fifth-seed Providence had been 15–0 at home until losing its last two there, to Marquette and—bizarrely—to Seton Hall by 24. The Friars are 4–5 in their last nine.

Best early matchup: A potential Villanova-Creighton quarterfinal matchup.

Minutes pick: Creighton (15). The Bluejays have been the best defensive team in the league, and if they can regain their form from mid-January to mid-February they will be tough to beat in Madison Square Garden.

Big Ten

Conference rank: second out of 32.

Tourney teams: Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Maryland.

Bubble teams: Rutgers, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan.

All-time March heroes: The Indiana Hoosiers of 1975–76 remain the last undefeated team in Division I history, and might be rivaled only by some of the dominant UCLA teams among the all-time annals.

Top seed: Purdue (16). The Boilermakers began the season unranked, which was a mistake given the consistency of the program. They quickly corrected that, starting 13–0 with consecutive wins over Marquette, West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke. They’ve wobbled a bit to the finish line, though, going 4–4 over their last eight.

Dark horse: Nebraska (17). Yeah, I said it. The Cornhuskers would need to win five games in five days, so don’t expect to see them cutting down the nets come Sunday. But could they break up the bracket? Sure. Nebraska has won six of its last eight games, and five of those victories were over likely NCAA tournament teams. In a closely bunched field like this, watch out for the hot hand and the right time.

Weirdest team: Illinois. It’s a weird league overall, but the Illini lead the way. They have been all over the map this season, vacillating between inspired and listless—often within the same game. As one of the nation’s worst shooting teams from three-point range and the foul line, they’re a tough pick to go very far this month.

Best early matchup: Three years after the world was shut down while the teams were on the court warming up, Rutgers and Michigan will finally play each other in this tourney. This time around, their second-round matchup is a major bubble battle. It might well be an NCAA elimination game for the loser.

Minutes pick: Michigan State (18). The fourth-seeded Spartans have endured an emotionally draining final few weeks of the regular season, yet still won five of their last seven games. They have the best tournament coach in the league, and if their hot shooting down the stretch carries over to Chicago and beyond, look out for another patented Tom Izzo run.

Big West

Conference rank: 15th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Long Beach State made the 1970 Sweet 16 and the ’71 and ’72 Elite Eight, only to be eliminated by eventual national champion UCLA each time. The coach of those Beach teams: Jerry Tarkanian.

Top seed: UC Irvine. The Anteaters, who have been the league’s most consistent program over the past decade, shared the regular-season title with UC Santa Barbara.

Dark horse: Cal State Fullerton. The defending tourney champions come into this on a six-game winning streak and have won eight of their last nine. Included in that stretch are victories over both of the league co-champions.

Minutes pick: Cal State Fullerton (19).

Conference USA

Conference rank: 10th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: UTEP (then known as Texas Western) won arguably the most famous NCAA tournament title of all time in 1966, with an all-Black starting five beating all-white Kentucky and helping accelerate the full integration of the sport at the college level.

Top seed: Florida Atlantic won the C-USA title for the first time. The Owls’ only previous regular-season conference championship was in 2011 in the Sun Belt.

Dark horse: Third-seed UAB won this tournament last year and still has scoring dynamo Jordan “Jelly” Walker in the backcourt. He averaged 31 points per game in the tourney last season and is coming off a 41-point game Saturday against Charlotte.

Minutes pick: Florida Atlantic (20). The league is competitive at the top, but the deep, unselfish, up-tempo Owls have been the best team all season.

Big 12

Conference rank: first out of 32.

Tourney teams: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU.

Bubble teams: West Virginia (probably in), Oklahoma State.

All-time March heroes: The first repeat NCAA tournament champions were the Oklahoma State Cowboys—then known as the Oklahoma A&M Aggies—in 1945–46. Hank Iba’s teams went 5–86 across those two seasons, defeating New York University and North Carolina for the titles.

Top seed: Kansas (21). Same as it ever was. This marks the 18th time in the last 19 years that the Jayhawks have earned at least a share of the Big 12 title. This year, they won it outright by a game over Texas.

Dark horse: West Virginia (22). The eighth-seeded Mountaineers are likely in the NCAA field, but should still have an urgency to make sure they win at least one game (against suddenly turmoil-steeped Texas Tech). And they’re playing well, having won three of their last four with the loss by two points to Kansas in Lawrence.

Ben Queen/USA TODAY Sports

Weirdest team: Iowa State (23). The Cyclones started 12–0 at home, then lost three of their last four in Hilton Coliseum. Caleb Grill, one of Iowa State’s best three-point shooters, was abruptly dismissed from the team last week amid a four-game losing streak. And then, just when the tailspin looked terminal, the Clones pulled out of it with an authoritative win at Baylor.

Best early matchup: A first-round Bedlam game with Oklahoma State fighting for its NCAA tournament life will enliven Wednesday's schedule.

Minutes pick: Kansas. This will be a four-day throwdown of high-level hoops, with a handful of teams that could win it. That includes the Jayhawks’ potential quarterfinal opponent, West Virginia, and it certainly includes No. 2 seed Texas. But the best team with the best coach playing in its Kansas City backyard is the most likely winner.

Ivy League

Conference rank: 14th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: In the early years of the NCAA tournament, Dartmouth was twice the national runner-up, losing to Stanford in 1942 and Utah in overtime in ’44. The Big Green hasn’t been to the tourney since ’59.

Top seed: Yale earned the No. 1 seed via tiebreaker after finishing 10–4 alongside Princeton in league play. The Bulldogs beat the Tigers twice.

Dark horse: There aren’t many horses in this race, with only half of the conference’s eight teams advancing to the tournament, but go with Penn. The Quakers’ only loss since Jan. 21 was in overtime at Princeton, and they took down Yale on Feb. 17.

Minutes pick: Yale (24). James Jones’s team finished the conference slate as the Ivy’s most efficient team on both offense and defense. The Bulldogs are striving for their third straight Ivy automatic bid.

Metro Atlantic

Conference rank: 23rd out of 32.

All-time March heroes: You don’t have to dial back far into the archives for this one. Saint Peter’s run last March to the Elite Eight as a No. 15 seed, with wins over Kentucky and Purdue, is the stuff of North Jersey legend.

Top seed: Iona won the conference title by four games, closing the regular season on an 11-game winning streak.

Dark horse: Operating under the theory that any viable dark horse needs to avoid Iona for as long as possible (i.e., until the title game), go with third-seed Quinnipiac. The Bobcats swept No. 2 seed Rider in the regular season and had a 23-point win over the Gaels in early January.

Minutes pick: Iona (25). Rick Pitino’s team could get a tussle in the championship game from either Quinnipiac or Rider, but this should be a team on a mission after being upset early in last year’s MAAC tourney—clearing the way for the miracle Saint Peter’s run.

Mid-American

Conference rank: 20th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Under the direction of “Gentleman Jim” Snyder, the 1963–64 Ohio Bobcats went 21–6, and defeated both Louisville and Kentucky on their way to the Elite Eight, whereupon they were eliminated by Michigan.

Top seed: Toledo. The Rockets are the regular-season champions for the third straight year.

Dark horse: Fifth-seed Ohio won seven of its last nine, with a bad road trip in late February as the only smudge on the final month of work. Jeff Boals’s team has a collection of capable three-point shooters who could get hot at the right time this week in Cleveland.

Minutes pick: Kent State (26). The state of Ohio has 5/8 of the field for this, with teams from the northern part of the state taking the top three seeds. Given Toledo’s tortured history in this event, go with the second-seeded Golden Flashes to make their first Big Dance since 2017.

Mid-Eastern Athletic

Conference rank: 28th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: The 1997 Coppin State team, coached by Ron “Fang” Mitchell, became just the third No. 15 seed in tourney history to win a game by upsetting SEC champion South Carolina. The Eagles had to win two overtime games in the MEAC tourney just to make the Big Dance, then shocked the Gamecocks and nearly took down Texas in the second round.

Top seed: Howard (19–12, 11–3 MEAC) won its first conference regular-season championship since 1992, and is trying to secure its first NCAA bid since that same season.

Dark horse: Third-seed Norfolk State has won the last two MEAC tournaments. Could fifth-year senior Joe Bryant lead the Spartans to a three-peat?

Minutes pick: North Carolina Central (27). The second-seed Eagles closed the regular season on a seven-game winning streak and always play vigilant defense, with 7-footer Brendan Medley-Bacon providing the paint presence. Coach LeVelle Moton, who has his best team in several years, has taken NCCU to five NCAA tournaments.

Mountain West

Conference rank: sixth out of 32.

All-time March heroes: The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels of 1990 and ’91 were among the most dominant teams of the post-UCLA era, blowing out Duke for the national title in ’90 and then going undefeated in ’91 until being shocked by the Blue Devils in the Final Four. The program hasn’t been the same since.

Top seed: San Diego State won the league for the third time in the last four seasons, going 15–3 and losing just once in the last month.

Dark horse: Third-seed Utah State has plenty of bubble motivation, having won its last five games to get within reach of its first NCAA bid under Ryan Odom. (You may remember him as the coach of UMBC’s immortal upset of Virginia in 2018.) With the dramatic steps back this season by Colorado State and Wyoming, Utah State seized the opportunity to ascend in the MWC rankings. The Aggies aren’t great defensively, but they have size and shoot the ball very well from deep.

Minutes pick: San Diego State (28). This is an old, deep team that is accustomed to the pressure of tournament basketball and, not surprisingly, leads the Mountain West in defensive efficiency. The question is how the conference will do in the Big Dance, after getting four bids in 2022 and going 0–4.

Pac-12

Conference rank: sixth out of 32.

Tourney teams: UCLA, Arizona.

Bubble teams: USC (probably in), Arizona State.

All-time March heroes: Pick your favorite UCLA juggernaut. The Minutes will go with the 1971–72 Bruins, with Bill Walton joining the varsity lineup after a year on the freshman team and combining with Henry Bibby to lead a 30–0 tour de force. UCLA scored more than 100 points in its first seven games of the season, and its average margin of victory on the season was 30.3 points.

Top seed: UCLA. The Bruins put distance between themselves and closest pursuer Arizona late in the season. They enter the postseason on a 10-game winning streak and are playing at a very high rate defensively. But the injury to No. 2 scorer Jaylen Clark against Arizona on Saturday looms as a major postseason problem, if the news is not good from an MRI early this week.

Dark horse: Washington State (29). Could the men’s team take a page from the women’s playbook and storm to a surprise Pac-12 tourney title? The Cougars are on a six-game winning streak, the last three on the road—the first time they’ve won three straight Pac-12 road games since 2009, when Tony Bennett was the coach. Kyle Smith’s team plays deliberately and can drop a blizzard of threes on opponents.

Weirdest team: Arizona State (30). The Sun Devils are on the bubble because their big wins have been counterbalanced by a failure to maintain much consistency. They beat Creighton, VCU and Michigan as part of an 11–1 start, but also have road losses to Texas Southern, San Francisco and Washington. This is a poor-shooting team, which often is an invitation to an early tournament exit.

Best early matchup: A potential USC–Arizona State quarterfinal game could provide NCAA bid clarity for one or both teams, depending on who wins.

Minutes pick: UCLA. The only two Pac-12 teams to defeat the Bruins this season are on the opposite side of the bracket, so the path looks relatively clear to the championship game. As great seniors often do, Jaime Jaquez Jr. (31) has elevated his play for the stretch run, averaging 20.5 points during UCLA’s current 10-game winning streak.

Maria Lysaker/USA TODAY Sports

Southeastern

Conference rank: third out of 32.

Tourney teams: Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas.

Bubble teams: Auburn (probably in), Mississippi State.

Top seed: Alabama (32). The Crimson Tide dominated the season while finishing it under a cloud of controversy that will follow them to Nashville. Aside from blowing out Georgia, the last six games were a struggle—losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M, plus overtime wins over South Carolina and Auburn and a narrow win over Arkansas. Nate Oats has been feast or famine in the SEC tourney, winning it all in 2021 and losing the first game in ’22.

Dark horse: Vanderbilt. If center and SEC Defensive Player of the Year Liam Robbins weren’t shut down due to injury, The Minutes would pick the Commodores to win this thing. They’ve closed with a rush, winning eight of their last nine, including takedowns of Tennessee, Auburn and Kentucky. Even without Robbins, don’t shut the door on the Dores winning multiple games in their hometown.

Weirdest team: Arkansas (33). This is a chemistry experiment gone awry—a combustible, wild team that hasn’t seemed to figure out complementary roles for everyone. Also: The Razorbacks can’t shoot very well. They have the talent to win this tourney and make a third straight deep NCAA run, but they haven’t shown the ability to maximize their gifts.

Best early matchup: Auburn-Arkansas should be a wild second-round game, and a potential Vandy-Kentucky game in the quarterfinals will be good stuff. It will be interesting to see whether 13 fan bases are rooting against the Crimson Tide when they tip off Friday afternoon.

Minutes pick: Texas A&M (34). Give it up for Buzz Williams, who has put together a tough team that hammers the glass, gets to the foul line and guards with enthusiasm. The Aggies made a run to the SEC title game last year, and they are positioned to finish the deal from a much better seeding this time around.

Southland

Conference rank: 30th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Led by future 20-point-a-game NBA player Ledell Eackles, the New Orleans Privateers went 26–4 in 1986–87. They earned a No. 7 seed and reached the second round of the tournament with a victory over BYU.

Top seed: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won 10 of its last 11 games to take the league title.

Dark horse: Third-seed Southeastern Louisiana began the season No. 343 nationally in the Ken Pomeroy ratings and has risen nearly 100 spots, to No. 247. The Lions have won four straight games.

Minutes pick: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (35). Is the bracket big enough for two Texas A&M’s? It better be, because the Islanders will join the Aggies in the Big Dance for just the second time (first was in 2007). But they might have to win an all-A&M tourney final against Texas A&M-Commerce, which split regular-season games with the Islanders and is the No. 2 seed.

Southwestern Athletic

Conference rank: 31st out of 32.

All-time March heroes: In 1993, the 13th-seeded Southern Jaguars shocked Georgia Tech in the opening round, giving 60-year-old coach Ben Jobe his first and only NCAA D-I tournament victory. The Jaguars were defeated in the second round by No. 12 seed George Washington as the West Region bracket collapsed to help Fab Five Michigan reach a second straight Final Four.

Top seed: Alcorn State claimed the tiebreaker over co-champion Grambling by virtue of winning the only head-to-head meeting between the two.

Dark horse: Third-seed Jackson State has won six of its last seven and split games with top-seed Alcorn this season.

Minutes pick: Grambling (36). At 22–8, the Tigers have their best team this century. They’re on a nine-game winning streak, the last four by 12 points or more. They play the league’s best defense and have a couple of go-to guys in Cameron Christon and Shawndarius Cowart.

Western Athletic

Conference rank: 11th out of 32.

All-time March heroes: Led by Elgin Baylor, Seattle marched to the national championship game in 1958 before losing to Kentucky in a virtual home game for the Wildcats in Louisville. Baylor would be the No. 1 pick in the draft later that year and go on to become an all-time NBA top-50 player and Hall of Famer.

Top seed: Utah Valley continued its upward progression in Year 4 under Mark Madsen, winning 24 games and positioning the Wolverines for their first NCAA tournament bid.

Dark horse: The answer is assuredly not New Mexico State, which shut down its scandal-plagued season. Keep an eye out for Grand Canyon, which won this tournament two years ago.

Minutes pick: Sam Houston State (37). The operative theory here is that the second-seeded Bearkats are due. Coach Jason Hooten has authored 10 straight winning seasons without once getting an NCAA bid. This 24–6 team, which has lost just once in the last two months, will be his ticket to the Big Dance.

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

John Pelphrey (38), Tennessee Tech. It’s not often that a losing coach gets this award, but circumstances and a remarkable play-call by Pelphrey in the final seconds of regulation in the Ohio Valley Conference final merit it. The Golden Eagles took the lead on Southeast Missouri State with 10 seconds to play, then lost it with 2.2 left when a Tech player fouled a three-point shooter who made all three, for a two-point lead.

That’s when Pelphrey dialed back into his own playing past. With the length of the court to go and just more than two seconds to play, Pelphrey called the very play that memorably ended his college career—a baseball pass to a post player at the top of the key. Back then, in 1992, Pelphrey was the Kentucky Wildcat trying to guard Christian Laettner, who made a catch-dribble-shoot shot that probably still ranks as the most famous in the history of the sport.

Pelphrey’s play worked as well Saturday as the one that tormented him back then. Jaylen Sebree threw the pass, Diante Wood made the catch, turned and fired in a shot that was ruled a three … and for a brief and sweet slice of time, Tennessee Tech had its first NCAA bid in 60 years. And John Pelphrey’s basketball soul was made whole.

Alas. The March gods are fickle. Upon review, Wood’s foot was on the line on the shot. The basket was correctly ruled a tying two, not a winning three. Forced to turn euphoria back into focus, Tech could not maintain it in overtime and lost to SEMO.

Pelphrey drew up One Shining Moment. It just wasn’t a winning moment, in the end.

Michael C. Johnson/USA TODAY Sports

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Mark Adams (39), Texas Tech. The sport does not need a coach who believes master-and-slave stories from the Bible are a good way to reach a player in 2023. Texas Tech suspended Adams over the weekend, and shouldn’t waste much time in firing him. Good riddance.

BUZZER BEATER

When thirsty in the Final Four city of Houston—also home of the No. 1–ranked Cougars—dip into the improving Texas craft beer scene. The Minutes recommends an Art Car IPA (40) from local stalwart Saint Arnold Brewing. Make it two, and thank The Minutes later.

First Half: Five Questions Before Big Dance