Bracket Watch: Who Needs a Conference Championship the Most

The race for No. 1 seeds heats up while bubble teams make one final push ahead of the Big Dance.

Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports

Selection Sunday is just a few days away! Several bids, all from mid-major conferences, have already been locked up, but now is the time for bubble teams to make one final push for the Big Dance. With daytime conference tournament action from now until Selection Sunday, the field will constantly be changing. Sports Illustrated is helping you keep track of all the latest movement with its projected field of 68 and notes on the biggest games each day that will impact the bracket.

On the Bubble:

Last Four Byes

Providence
NC State
Mississippi State
Penn State

Last Four In

Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Utah State
Nevada

First Four Out

Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Arizona State
North Carolina

Next Four Out

Michigan
Clemson
Oregon
North Texas

Things have gotten dicey in a hurry for Nevada, which took two Quad 3 losses last week to wrap up the regular season, falling perilously close to the cut line. The Pack desperately need to beat San Jose State in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West tournament to avoid falling out of the field, and regardless would be wise to root against any potential bid thieves.

I’m not convinced North Carolina is quite auto-bid-or-bust, but the Heels need to make a deep run in the ACC tournament to have any real hope of getting in. That journey starts by beating Boston College on Wednesday, then getting a second victory against Virginia this season Thursday. Do that, and the Heels at least enter the conversation going into the semifinal Friday.

Games to Watch Today

• Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Wisconsin vs. Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
• North Carolina vs. Boston College, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN 2
• Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN U
• Arizona State vs. Oregon State, 11:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network

---

* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

South Region

No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 SEMO/Alcorn State*
No. 8 Florida Atlantic* vs. No. 9 West Virginia
No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Iona*
No. 6 Duke vs. No. 11 Mississippi State
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Furman*
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Purdue* vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville*

For now, Alabama is holding on to the No. 1 overall seed despite its loss at Texas A&M over the weekend. There’s still legitimate drama at play for that top spot, though, with Houston and Kansas squarely in the mix entering their conference tournaments. Houston has a chance at securing No. 1 overall despite its weaker schedule and loss head-to-head against Alabama, but it would likely need both the Tide and Jayhawks to drop games this week.

Purdue has fallen off the No. 1 line, but in return, gets to stay close to home in Louisville for a potential second-weekend matchup. The Boilermakers could earn back a spot on the top line by winning the Big Ten tournament or UCLA taking a bad loss, but the Bruins jumped up with their win over Arizona over the weekend. 

Watch college basketball live with fuboTV. Start a free trial today!

Houston remains in the hunt for the No. 1 overall seed :: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 FDU/Howard*
No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 USC
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Utah State
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Louisiana*
No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Providence
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Vermont*

One team with a lot to gain during conference tournament week is Indiana, which is fighting for a top-four protected seed if it can make a bit of noise at the Big Ten tournament. The Hoosiers held serve over the weekend despite getting a scare from Michigan, avoiding a disastrous home sweep after losing to Iowa. A deep run could move the Hoosiers up a seed line.

Providence’s place in the field has come somewhat in doubt because of the Friars’ blowout loss over the weekend against Seton Hall. They could move slightly closer to the cut line should they lose to UConn on Thursday, but at this point it would take multiple bid stealers for the Friars to be outside our projected field on Selection Sunday.

East Region

No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-CC*
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Arkansas
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Charleston*
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh/Nevada
No. 3 Marquette* vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Montana State*

Arkansas is a good example of a team whose metrics don’t match the results. The Hogs are 7–11 against the top two quadrants, have a Quad 3 loss on its ledger and no truly elite wins despite top-20 marks in KenPom and the NET. It’s hard to believe any top seed wants to see an Arkansas team with three McDonald’s All-Americans in the second round, but it’s difficult to justify a higher seed at this point.

Another difficult seeding case is Texas A&M, which won against Alabama over the weekend to complete a 15–3 season in the SEC. Per T-Rank, the Aggies have been the sixth-best team in the country since Jan. 1, which means seeing them as a No. 6 seed as SI currently projects would be brutal for the other teams in the league.

West Region

No. 1 UCLA*
No. 16 Northern Kentucky*
No. 8 Iowa
No. 9 Auburn
No. 5 TCU
No. 12 Drake*
No. 4 UConn
No. 13 Toledo*
No. 6 San Diego State*
No. 11 Penn State
No. 3 Gonzaga*
No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Michigan State
No. 10 Memphis
No. 2 Texas
No. 15 Kennesaw State*

Gonzaga won the WCC title Tuesday night in a blowout and for all intents and purposes has locked up its spot as a No. 3 seed. It’s now possible the Zags could go even higher than that, with a fairly impressive résumé that would be even better had they not lost to Loyola Marymount early in conference play.

No team in the Big East is hotter than UConn, which is favored by many to win the conference tournament despite coming in as the No. 4 seed. The Huskies built quite the résumé during nonconference action and have elite metrics, so a run in the Big East tournament could be particularly fruitful. There’s certainly room here to climb up the seed list before Selection Sunday.