Bracket Watch: Bubble Teams’ March Madness Hopes Burst

North Carolina and Michigan are among the high-profile teams that saw their NCAA tournament dreams likely dashed during conference tournament action.

Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

It was an eventful Thursday as Selection Sunday moves ever closer, with a pair of high-profile programs seeing their NCAA tournament hopes likely dashed, while others tried to make a strong last impression on the NCAA tournament selection committee.

Heading into Friday of Championship Week, here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s latest projected field, including notes from the biggest story lines of Thursday and a look ahead to what you should be watching today.

Notes From Thursday’s Games

• North Carolina can essentially kiss its hopes of an at-large bid goodbye. The Tar Heels’ loss to Virginia leaves them with just one Quad 1 win and an overall 7–13 record against the top two quadrants. It’d be truly shocking if the selection committee put North Carolina in, making the Heels the first team in the 64-team era to miss the Big Dance after being the No. 1 team in the preseason AP poll.
  
  
• Similarly, we can cross Michigan off the list of teams with a realistic chance of hearing their name called Sunday. The Wolverines’ loss to Rutgers leaves this résumé well short of the projected cut line. On the other hand, Rutgers moved onto more stable ground with the win and now gets a no-lose game Friday against Purdue. The Scarlet Knights may well end up in Dayton for the First Four, but they should be in SI’s projected bracket on Selection Sunday.
  
  
• Nevada came into the day as SI’s last team in the field, and the Wolf Pack’s loss to San Jose State didn’t help matters. It wasn’t a strong day for bubble teams as a whole, so the Pack are still very close to the cut line. That said, it’s hard to feel confident in Nevada’s chances, particularly given it’ll enter Selection Sunday on a three-game losing streak.
  
  
• Penn State was one of the few bubble teams to help itself, beating Illinois for a third straight Quad 1 win and essentially locking up its place in the field. The Nittany Lions have 20 wins (including six in Quad 1) and no disastrous losses. They should dance and now will very likely avoid the First Four. The same likely goes for Mississippi State, which survived in overtime against Florida to get some stability.
  
  
• Pittsburgh did the one thing it needed to avoid: get blown out. The Panthers dropped from No. 66 to No. 77 in KenPom and from No. 56 to 67 in the NET after a 27-point drubbing by Duke. The rest of the bubble didn’t do itself many favors, but Pitt is now our last team in the field and will be sweating until Sunday.
  
  
• Similar things can be said about NC State, which got demolished for a third time this season by Clemson. It’s safe to say the Tigers have the Wolfpack’s number. The impact? NC State drops into SI’s Last Four In. The lack of a bad loss on the résumé helps, but will it be enough?
  
  
• Arizona State got the win it desperately needed, earning a Quad 1 victory over USC to advance to the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament. The result vaults the Sun Devils into SI’s projected field heading into a matchup with Arizona on Friday. A win there, and Arizona State would become close to a lock to dance.
  
  
• Oklahoma State didn’t have a bad day despite its loss to Texas. The Cowboys look like the definition of a bubble team at 18–15, but were fortunate to get several positive results from other teams near the cut line. In all, the Cowboys remain the first team out despite the loss, and things could truly go either way.
  
  
• It’s not a Quad 1 win, but Utah State sure looked the part in a 15-point win over New Mexico. The Aggies’ unique résumé likely means there will be some doubt if they don’t secure the Mountain West’s automatic bid, but they remain in SI’s Last Four In.

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Notes for Friday’s Games

• Fans of bubble teams would be wise to root against potential bid-stealers Ohio State (vs. Michigan State) and Middle Tennessee State (vs. FAU) tomorrow afternoon. FAU losing in the Conference USA tournament would wipe away a bubble slot, and Ohio State winning two games early on has the potential of a surprise run by the talented Buckeyes on people’s minds in Chicago.
  
  
• Given all the other bubble results Thursday, Oregon can make things interesting if the Ducks can knock off a banged-up UCLA team Friday night. I’m not sure a win alone would push Oregon into the field, and the automatic bid remains the Ducks’ clearest path, but they’d have an intriguing bubble case with an elite win like that Friday night.
  
  
• Clemson has fought its way back into the bubble conversation mainly because of two blowout wins over NC State, including one last night. The good doesn’t currently outweigh the bad, and the ugly for the Tigers, who have two Quad 3 and two Quad 4 losses and just seven total wins against the top two quadrants. Still, the Tigers now get a chance at another solid win against Virginia and could play its way into the conversation with another victory.
  
  
• As alluded to above, Rutgers and Mississippi State are likely safe at this point. In case they aren’t, each gets a chance at a marquee win Friday, with the Scarlet Knights taking on Purdue and the Bulldogs matching up with Alabama.
  
  
• Kansas is still very much in the mix for the No. 1 overall seed, and after earning a Quad 1 win Thursday against West Virginia, the Jayhawks now get another chance for a quality win against Iowa State. If Kansas wins the Big 12 tournament, it will enter Selection Sunday as SI’s projected No. 1 overall seed, and the Jayhawks still might jump up there if they lose in the league title game.
  
• Another notable game for seeding purposes is Miami vs. Duke, which pits two teams fighting for protected top-four seeds. The Blue Devils have played like the best team in the ACC lately, but could use another big win or two to really move the needle. 

Kansas continues to make a case for the No. 1 overall seed :: William Purnell/USA TODAY Sports

ON THE BUBBLE:

Last Four Byes

Penn State
Mississippi State
Providence
Rutgers

Last Four In

NC State
Utah State
Arizona State
Pittsburgh

First Four Out

Oklahoma State
Nevada
Wisconsin
Clemson

Next Four Out

Oregon
North Carolina
North Texas
Michigan

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* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid
** = indicates team has already clinched automatic bid

South Region

No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 FDU**/Howard*
No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 9 West Virginia
No. 5 Duke vs. No. 12 Charleston**
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Yale
No. 6 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 11 Providence
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Louisiana**
No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 USC
No. 2 Purdue* vs. No. 15 Vermont*

Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Grambling*/SEMO**
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Utah Valley
No. 6 San Diego State* vs. No. 11 NC State/Arizona State
No. 3 UConn vs. No. 14 Furman**
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Penn State
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Montana State**

East Region

No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky**
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Auburn
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts**
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Iona
No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Utah State/Pittsburgh
No. 3 Marquette* vs. No. 14 Colgate**
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State**

West Region

No. 1 UCLA* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-CC**
No. 8 Florida Atlantic* vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Drake**
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Toledo
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Rutgers
No. 3 Gonzaga** vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Mississippi State
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville**