Bracket Watch: Who’s on the Bubble and What to Look Out for on Selection Sunday

With a few conference tournament finals before the selection show, there are plenty of moving pieces before the NCAA tournament field is set.

Welcome to Selection Sunday! A season’s worth of work comes down to today, as the NCAA tournament selection committee picks the 68 teams that will continue their seasons into March Madness next week. 

Before the selection show at 6 p.m. ET, five final conferences have automatic bids to the Big Dance to lock up, so here’s a look at some notes from Saturday’s games and a few thoughts on what to watch on Sunday. Once those results go final, SI will have one final projected bracket with all automatic bids properly accounted for, so stay tuned.

Notes From Saturday’s Games:

• Kansas’s loss in the Big 12 title game to Texas means the Jayhawks stay as SI’s projected No. 3 overall team, with Alabama holding serve at No. 1 overall and Houston right behind them at No. 2. Had Kansas won, the Jayhawks likely would have jumped both and become the projected overall No. 1. It wouldn’t be surprising for any of these three teams to get that top spot. Kansas has the most to gain, given how much of a home-court advantage a potential regional in Kansas City in the second weekend might offer.
  
  
• Meanwhile, Purdue regains the fourth No. 1 seed from UCLA after the Bruins lost a heartbreaker to Arizona. The committee is likely looking for reasons to justify dropping UCLA down given Jaylen Clark’s absence for the remainder of the season, but’s it’s possible contingencies are in play to bump the Bruins back above Purdue if the Boilermakers lose Sunday to Penn State.
  
  
• This year will officially not feature a bid stealer, as FAU handled business in the C-USA tournament and surprising runs from Vanderbilt and Ohio State in their respective tournaments ended Saturday. That’s good news for Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State and Nevada, the three teams fighting for the last spot in SI’s projected field.
  
  
• Penn State will be a good test case for how much the committee values conference tournament and late-season results generally. The Nittany Lions have picked up five Quad 1 wins since March 1, transforming their résumé from mediocre to rather strong. SI has Penn State as a No. 9 seed, but there’s a case to be made that it should be higher.
  
  
• In general, the 12–14 seed lines are the strongest I’ve seen in several years. Even in leagues that didn’t send No. 1 seeds to the NCAA tournament, we often got strong squads with rosters capable of winning a game. That continued Saturday with the likes of Kent State, Iona and UCSB punching tickets to the Big Dance.
  

Texas handed Kansas its largest Big 12 tournament loss ever Saturday :: William Purnell/USA TODAY Sports

Notes For Sunday’s Games:

• In general, it’s best not to read too much into the results of Sunday conference championship games from a bracketing standpoint. A couple of potential tweaks are possible, but don’t expect any big moves as the committee works to finalize the seed list.
  
  
• Three of four projected No. 1 seeds are in action. As alluded to above, SI currently projects Alabama as the No. 1 overall seed, and would guarantee that spot in our final projection with a win over Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Houston takes on Memphis for a third time and Purdue gets a crack at Penn Sate.
  
  
• The other two remaining games are for automatic bids in one-bid leagues. The winner of VCU vs. Dayton will slot in on the No. 12 line of SI’s projected bracket. There could be a bit more of a gap between Yale and Princeton given the large disparity in NET ranking for the two teams, with Yale a likely No. 13 seed and Princeton straddling the No. 14 and No. 15 lines.
  
  

On the Bubble:

Last Four Byes

Boise State

Mississippi State

Providence

Utah State

Last Four In

Rutgers

NC State

Arizona State

Pittsburgh

First Four Out

Oklahoma State

Nevada

Wisconsin

Vanderbilt

Next Four Out

North Carolina

Clemson

Michigan

North Texas

---

* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

** = indicates team has already clinched automatic bid

South Region

No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 FDU**/Howard**

No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 9 West Virginia

No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts**

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Iona**

No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Arizona State/NC State

No. 3 Marquette** vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara**

No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 USC

No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Montana State**

Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 SEMO**/Texas Southern**

No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Iowa

No. 5 Duke** vs. No. 12 VCU*

No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Yale*

No. 6 Saint Mary's vs. No. 11 Providence

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Louisiana**

No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Boise State

No. 2 Arizona** vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State**

West Region

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi**

No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Penn State

No. 5 San Diego State** vs.No. 12 Charleston**

No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Kent State**

No. 6 Texas A&MNo. Vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Pittsburgh

No. 3 Gonzaga** vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon**

No. 7 Northwestern vs. 10 Mississippi State

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Vermont**

East Region

No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky**

No. 8 Florida Atlantic** vs. No. 9 Memphis

No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Drake**

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Furman**

No. 6 Miami vs. No. 11 Utah State

No. 3 UConn vs. No. 14 Colgate**

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Auburn

No. 2 Texas** vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville**