Bracket Watch: Who’s on the Bubble and What to Look Out for on Selection Sunday
Welcome to Selection Sunday! A season’s worth of work comes down to today, as the NCAA tournament selection committee picks the 68 teams that will continue their seasons into March Madness next week.
Before the selection show at 6 p.m. ET, five final conferences have automatic bids to the Big Dance to lock up, so here’s a look at some notes from Saturday’s games and a few thoughts on what to watch on Sunday. Once those results go final, SI will have one final projected bracket with all automatic bids properly accounted for, so stay tuned.
Notes From Saturday’s Games:
- Kansas’s loss in the Big 12 title game to Texas means the Jayhawks stay as SI’s projected No. 3 overall team, with Alabama holding serve at No. 1 overall and Houston right behind them at No. 2. Had Kansas won, the Jayhawks likely would have jumped both and become the projected overall No. 1. It wouldn’t be surprising for any of these three teams to get that top spot. Kansas has the most to gain, given how much of a home-court advantage a potential regional in Kansas City in the second weekend might offer.
- Meanwhile, Purdue regains the fourth No. 1 seed from UCLA after the Bruins lost a heartbreaker to Arizona. The committee is likely looking for reasons to justify dropping UCLA down given Jaylen Clark’s absence for the remainder of the season, but’s it’s possible contingencies are in play to bump the Bruins back above Purdue if the Boilermakers lose Sunday to Penn State.
- This year will officially not feature a bid stealer, as FAU handled business in the C-USA tournament and surprising runs from Vanderbilt and Ohio State in their respective tournaments ended Saturday. That’s good news for Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State and Nevada, the three teams fighting for the last spot in SI’s projected field.
- Penn State will be a good test case for how much the committee values conference tournament and late-season results generally. The Nittany Lions have picked up five Quad 1 wins since March 1, transforming their résumé from mediocre to rather strong. SI has Penn State as a No. 9 seed, but there’s a case to be made that it should be higher.
- In general, the 12–14 seed lines are the strongest I’ve seen in several years. Even in leagues that didn’t send No. 1 seeds to the NCAA tournament, we often got strong squads with rosters capable of winning a game. That continued Saturday with the likes of Kent State, Iona and UCSB punching tickets to the Big Dance.
Texas handed Kansas its largest Big 12 tournament loss ever Saturday.
William Purnell/USA TODAY Sports
Notes For Sunday’s Games:
- In general, it’s best not to read too much into the results of Sunday conference championship games from a bracketing standpoint. A couple of potential tweaks are possible, but don’t expect any big moves as the committee works to finalize the seed list.
- Three of four projected No. 1 seeds are in action. As alluded to above, SI currently projects Alabama as the No. 1 overall seed, and would guarantee that spot in our final projection with a win over Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Houston takes on Memphis for a third time and Purdue gets a crack at Penn Sate.
- The other two remaining games are for automatic bids in one-bid leagues. The winner of VCU vs. Dayton will slot in on the No. 12 line of SI’s projected bracket. There could be a bit more of a gap between Yale and Princeton given the large disparity in NET ranking for the two teams, with Yale a likely No. 13 seed and Princeton straddling the No. 14 and No. 15 lines.
On the Bubble:
Last Four Byes
Boise State
Mississippi State
Providence
Utah State
Last Four In
Rutgers
NC State
Arizona State
Pittsburgh
First Four Out
Oklahoma State
Nevada
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Next Four Out
North Carolina
Clemson
Michigan
North Texas
* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid
** = indicates team has already clinched automatic bid
South Region
No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 FDU**/Howard**
No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 9 West Virginia
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts**
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Iona**
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Arizona State/NC State
No. 3 Marquette** vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara**
No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 USC
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Montana State**
Midwest Region
No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 SEMO**/Texas Southern**
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Duke** vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 Saint Mary's vs. No. 11 Providence
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Louisiana**
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Arizona** vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State**
West Region
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi**
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Penn State
No. 5 San Diego State** vs.No. 12 Charleston**
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Kent State**
No. 6 Texas A&MNo. Vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Pittsburgh
No. 3 Gonzaga** vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon**
No. 7 Northwestern vs. 10 Mississippi State
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Vermont**
East Region
No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky**
No. 8 Florida Atlantic** vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Drake**
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Furman**
No. 6 Miami vs. No. 11 Utah State
No. 3 UConn vs. No. 14 Colgate**
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Auburn
No. 2 Texas** vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville**
