Top Teams to Stay Away From in Your Men’s March Madness Bracket

Expert analysis of the NCAA men’s tournament points to these highly-ranked teams facing an early exit.

Welcome back to this year’s men’s NCAA tournament Danger Rankings! In a season defined by parity throughout the national landscape, few things would truly count as a surprise during March Madness. That said, trying to pick out which highly seeded teams are most vulnerable to an early exit may be the hardest part of winning your bracket challenge, so we compiled a list of the top seeds who may just be headed home after opening weekend. After analyzing all the matchups, here’s who you might want to pick against this March.

Purdue (No. 1 seed, East Region)

On paper, Purdue looks like the most vulnerable of the No. 1 seeds. While the Boilermakers did build some momentum by winning the Big Ten tournament, they were aided by a favorable draw that saw them face off against a struggling Rutgers, an under-.500 Ohio State on its fourth game in as many days and a tired Penn State that doesn’t have the size to match up with Zach Edey. So while the performance was encouraging, it doesn’t outweigh some of the Boilermakers’ February struggles, most clearly highlighted by a stretch of four losses in six games.

Purdue’s guard play, which relies heavily on a pair of freshmen in Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, has been inconsistent lately. Loyer is shooting just 31% from the field and 22% from three since Feb. 1, while Smith has also battled inconsistency and struggled with full-court pressure. When the Boilermakers don’t make threes, teams can collapse harder on Edey down low, and all of a sudden things get dicey.

The draw isn’t all that favorable for Purdue, either. Particularly concerning is a potential second-round matchup with Memphis. The Tigers just beat another No. 1 seed in Houston at the AAC tournament, have high-level athletes at every position on the floor and boast one of the best point guards in the nation in Kendric Davis.

Texas (No. 2 seed, Midwest Region)

The Longhorns’ placement on here has everything to do with matchups, not Texas itself. The Longhorns were incredibly impressive in the Big 12 tournament, blowing out Kansas in the title game days after beating the Jayhawks in Austin to conclude the regular season. They’re also an old team with March Madness experience that won’t be flustered by big moments. This team has proved it can be a Final Four contender.

That said, the draw for Texas is brutal. Colgate as a No. 15 seed is arguably the worst seeding of the tournament, a team that has lost just once in 2023 and won at Syracuse in nonconference play. The Raiders are incredibly skilled offensively and have led in the second half of similar upset bids against Tennessee in ’19, Arkansas in ’21 and Wisconsin in ’22. This is a seeding gaffe on par with ’16, when the committee put Middle Tennessee as a No. 15 seed before MTSU beat Michigan State.

Should Texas survive Colgate, the Longhorns will get either a similarly underseeded Texas A&M team that has played like a top-10 team since Jan. 1, or a Penn State team coming off a deep run in the Big Ten tournament. If Texas gets to the second weekend, it sure will have earned its place.

Texas secured its second Big 12 title in three years with a win over Kansas in the conference tournament :: William Purnell/USA TODAY Sports

Baylor (No. 3 seed, South Region)

Baylor’s defense has been its Achilles heel all season long and has shown no signs of improvement even with the return of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua at center. So while the Bears have one of the most dynamic backcourts in the country with Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer and Keyonte George, this is a very difficult team to trust to make a deep run. Baylor has been a turnstile in the paint all season, currently ranking in the bottom 50 nationally in two-point defense after giving up 55% or better on twos in consecutive games against a middling Iowa State offense. That’s a major concern in March, especially if jumpers aren’t falling for the Bears’ elite guards.

First-round matchup UC Santa Barbara has some characteristics that could give Baylor problems. The Gauchos relentlessly attack the rim with guards Ajay Mitchell and Josh Pierre-Louis, and they also have a strong interior presence in Cal transfer Andre Kelly. This game won’t be easy. Even if Baylor survives that matchup, a potential date with an über-talented Creighton team in the second round or NC State’s dynamic backcourt would be scary as well. This might be a second straight first-weekend exit for the Bears.

Virginia (No. 4 seed, South Region)

Virginia’s season got off to a roaring start, climbing as high as No. 2 in the AP Poll in mid-December before falling off down the stretch. In the season’s final month, Virginia wasn’t among the nation’s 75 best teams, according to T-Rank. That final month featured underwhelming performances against lowly Notre Dame and Louisville, a loss at Boston College and four games scoring under 60 points. And to make matters worse, starting forward Ben Vander Plas, a key rebounder and floor spacer, is now out for the season with a broken hand.

Simply put, Virginia doesn’t generate a ton of easy offense. Its three-point shooting has been a strength for much of the season but has fallen off lately, and talented shooting guard Reece Beekman hasn’t been the same player late this season after dealing with ankle and hamstring injuries. UVA will have its hands full against a battle-tested Furman team in the first round, a dynamic offensive team with a pair of stars in Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson. And should the Cavs survive that, they’ll get another feisty mid-major in either San Diego State or College of Charleston.

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Tennessee (No. 4 seed, East Region)

Tennessee’s ceiling in this tournament has seemed capped ever since point guard Zakai Zeigler’s season-ending injury in late February. To then get drawn into the same pod as Duke and Oral Roberts (not to mention an athletic Louisiana team) seems less than ideal for the Vols’ hopes of an extended stay in this event.

Since a win over Texas at the end of January, Tennessee has gone just 5–7 and won consecutive games just once. And coach Rick Barnes has a shaky history in the Big Dance, bowing out of the field to a lower seed in all four of his trips to the NCAA tournament as coach of the Volunteers. So while Tennessee is elite defensively and can crush teams on the offensive glass, it’s just hard to buy into a deep run right now.

In the Round of 64, Louisiana’s offense may struggle to penetrate the Vols’ stout defense, though the Ragin’ Cajuns won’t be overwhelmed athletically. But in the Round of 32, Duke has just looked like the better team lately, and Oral Roberts’s skill level would be a problem for the Vols should the Golden Eagles upset the Blue Devils.