Nick Saban’s Era of Dominance Hangs in the Balance This Season

Alabama is in uncharted territory, entering the 2023 college football season far from the conference favorite and with a young roster.

Nick Saban says he likes carrot cake, which proves that every man has flaws. He revealed this vital information in discussing the need to “let the cake bake” with his Alabama quarterbacks, waiting for someone to assert himself as the starter at that position during preseason camp.

The larger baking question is whether Saban’s personal cake is overdone. This season will be a crucial oven check in Tuscaloosa: Is the era of dominance over for the greatest coach in college football history?

Nothing lasts forever, not even Nick Saban. At age 71, he’s got a relatively inexperienced team that is trying to replace players picked first and third in the NFL draft. Alabama lost an 8,000-yard career passer, a running back who produced more than 1,600 all-purpose yards last season, seven of its top eight tacklers and both coordinators. The cupboard is never bare at ‘Bama, but the restocking this season is significant.

Meanwhile, two-time reigning national champion Georgia has become the dominant program in the Southeastern Conference, and LSU could be considered the favorite this year in the SEC West. The last time Saban went consecutive years without winning that division was 2010 and ’11—but the Crimson Tide still won the national championship in the latter of those two seasons.

Nobody is picking Alabama to win it all this year. The Tide might be headed for their lowest preseason ranking since Saban’s third season, in 2009, when they were No. 5 in the AP poll. In the years since then, ’Bama has been preseason No. 1 seven times, No. 2 four times and No. 3 twice. It has almost always delivered on those lofty expectations.

Saban stressed the importance of patience in picking his quarterback for the upcoming season :: Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports

This fall, the ability to deliver is more in doubt than in many years. The Tide has to prove they’re more buttoned-up than in ’22 when they ranked 123rd nationally in penalty yards at 68.7 per game. They have to prove they’re more opportunistic defensively after producing just 14 takeaways—by far the lowest total of the Saban Era—which tied for 104th nationally.

And, pardon the heresy, Saban has to demonstrate that he’s still a master in-game coach on the sideline. His questionable clock management contributed to Alabama’s loss at Tennessee. The Tide nearly bungled close wins over Texas and Texas A&M, committing 100 yards of penalties against the former and losing four turnovers against the latter. And ‘Bama made enough mistakes to negate a 98-yard total offense advantage in a loss at LSU. (“We beat ourselves,” Saban said after that game.)

The coordinator changes may be beneficial, with Tommy Rees arriving from Notre Dame to take over the offensive play-calling and Kevin Steele returning to the ‘Bama fold from Miami to orchestrate the defense. Tide fans certainly were not heartbroken to see Bill O’Brien and Pete Golding go.

But Rees will have his work cut out for him with a quarterback position that is in a bit of flux. Jalen Milroe filled in for Bryce Young in injury situations last season and was OK, not great, showing more ability as a runner than a passer and turning the ball over five times in limited duty. Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner would seem to be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option, providing a security blanket for Rees but not much of a game-changer at QB. Ty Simpson, who has thrown five collegiate passes, could end up being the best alternative. A pair of four-star freshmen signees would seem unlikely to crack the lineup.

Given the state of that position, Saban’s patient approach makes sense. This competition could go deep into August.

“I used the analogy earlier, Grandma Saban used to bake the best cakes in the world,” Saban said. “And I used to stand by the oven when I was a kid and say, ‘When is this cake going to be done? When is this cake going to be done?’

“She said, ‘If I don't let it go through and take it out of the oven too soon, it will turn to mush and it won't be a really good cake.’ So I think we have to sort of let this develop and make sure we let the cake bake until somebody separates themselves and all the players are working hard. They all have a good attitude. They are all competing well.”

Patience, in general, is not an Alabama fan's strong suit. But it could be needed with this team. The Tide brings a monster freshman class to campus, with five Rivals five-star signees and 21 four-star players, but it remains to be seen how many of them are capable of making an instant impact.

“I think experience matters, I really do,” Saban said. “But I also think that when you have young players who are hungry and have great energy and enthusiasm, that's helpful to the team chemistry as well. One of the things that I tell all of our coaches and the players, our entire team, it's really important that we develop the young players on our team because we are always going to have a young team (due to early entries in the NFL draft) and those guys need to be able to contribute early on.

“So their development is critical to us having a successful team, and we do have some good, young players. I think the challenge is for us as coaches to be able to help those guys develop to where they can play winning football.”

Winning football comes automatically at Alabama. But championship football could be harder to attain this year. The competition is strong, and the questions about the Tide are large—including whether Nick Saban’s window of dominance is closing.