Jim Harbaugh Can Coach Michigan’s Full Season, but His NCAA Battle Is Far From Over

An eventual reckoning for the Wolverines coach could be worse than sitting out games against easy opponents like Bowling Green and Rutgers.

The immediate tension surrounding Jim Harbaugh’s status for this Michigan football season appears to be over. But the stakes may have escalated for next year ... if there is a “next year” for Harbaugh in Ann Arbor.

Sources with knowledge of the situation told Sports Illustrated Saturday that a negotiated resolution to the Michigan infractions case was “rejected” by the NCAA Committee on Infractions. Yahoo Sports first reported the complication in the case. The NCAA Enforcement division and the university had arrived at an agreed-upon resolution earlier this summer that sources said called for Harbaugh to serve a four-game suspension to start the season, among other likely penalties for staff and the institution. However, the resolution was subject to review and acceptance by the COI, and the adjudicative group rejected it.

What happens now? For starters, Harbaugh appears to be clear to coach the full season instead of sitting out games against lightweight competition: East Carolina, Bowling Green, UNLV and Rutgers, all at home. But while sending the case to a full hearing will delay a final ruling and potential appeals until after the 2023 season, it also could change the sanctions Harbaugh and others face.

There’s tension between Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh and the NCAA over a recruiting infractions case :: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

The COI has discretion to enhance or lessen sanctions. While it’s possible that Harbaugh could receive something less than a four-game suspension for 2024, he also could be hit harder. Potentially much harder.

NCAA membership has called for stiffer penalties levied against “adults” involved in violations as opposed to applying postseason bans or other sanctions that affect athletes who weren’t involved in any rule breaking. In the Michigan case, Harbaugh has been accused of impermissible contact with recruits during the COVID-19 dead period—and, more problematically for him, lying to investigators about that contact.

In cases where the cover-up exceeds the crime, the NCAA has levied some harsh penalties for those who lie during an investigation. Oklahoma State wide receiver Dez Bryant lied to investigators in 2009 and missed the final nine games of the season, subsequently turning pro. 

In 2010, Tennessee men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl lied about hosting an impermissible cookout (among other violations). After being fired by the school, he was hit with a three-year show-cause penalty that kept him out of college basketball from ’11-14.

So, there is precedent for a steeper penalty than missing one-third of the regular season. But with the NCAA, precedent is never an automatic predictor of what will happen. We will have to see what direction this goes as the case likely lingers on into 2024.

The case has carried an undercurrent of tension between the NCAA and Michigan/Harbaugh that appears to be reaching the surface. The two sides were wrangling for months over how to resolve the case without a full hearing, with a draft notice of allegations sent from Enforcement to Michigan on Jan. 5 and decisions on a resolution method not agreed upon by all parties until late June.

During that time, Michigan sympathizers spun the case as being “about a cheeseburger” that Harbaugh allegedly paid for during an impermissible Ann Arbor visit by recruits. The implication was that the NCAA was majoring in minors while much worse was happening elsewhere.

That stance—which was likely driven by what the school was telling supporters behind the scenes—clearly rankled the NCAA, which issued a statement from vice president for hearing operations Derrick Crawford to Sports Illustrated and other media outlets Saturday about the case: 

“The Michigan infractions case is related to impermissible on and off-campus recruiting during the COVID-19 dead period and impermissible coaching activitiesnot a cheeseburger. It is not uncommon for the COI to seek clarification on key facts prior to accepting. The COI may also reject an NR (negotiated resolution) if it determines that the agreement is not in the best interests of the Association or the penalties are not reasonable. If the involved parties cannot resolve a case through the negotiated resolution process, it may proceed to a hearing, but the committee believes cooperation is the best avenue to quickly resolve issues.”

That was a departure from the customary “no comment” stance the NCAA takes during ongoing investigations. And Harbaugh’s attorney, Tom Mars, raised that point on Twitter later Saturday. “Pursuant to the NCAA’s internal operating procedures, and under threat of penalties, Michigan, the involved coaches, and their lawyers are prohibited from uttering a word about this ongoing case. Yet the NCAA can issue a public statement putting its spin on the case? Unreal”

Reading the rapidly accruing tea leaves, Michigan should approach a full COI hearing with its game face on. This could be quite a battle, with the potential for Harbaugh to face a longer suspension than four games.

But here’s the other complication from an NCAA standpoint: what if Harbaugh is no longer the coach at Michigan when penalties come down? He’s explored NFL coaching options after each of the last two seasons, and if he knows a major NCAA hit could be waiting for him, he might be all the more motivated to beat the posse out of college football.

There is precedent for such an escape. Pete Carroll did it at USC, jumping to the Seattle Seahawks before the Trojans were slammed by the NCAA. Chip Kelly did the same, leaving Oregon in 2013 for the Philadelphia Eagles before he was given an 18-month show-cause penalty. Kelly has since returned to college and been the coach at UCLA for the previous five seasons.

Last month at Big Ten media days, Harbaugh clearly chafed at the gag order he’s been put under as the Michigan case has progressed. “I would love to lay it all out there,” he said. “Nothing to be ashamed of. But now is not that time. That’s about all there is to say about that.”

The Committee on Infractions rejected the negotiated resolution delays Harbaugh’s chance to “lay it all out there.” It apparently will allow him to coach this entire (very promising) season without interruption. But there will be a reckoning down the road that could be worse than sitting out games against Bowling Green and UNLV—unless Harbaugh bails on college football before the hammer comes down.