Men’s College Hoops Preview: The Big Ten Needs to Show Up in March

After Purdue’s upset to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson, Zach Edey & Co. are eager to change their Big Dance track record.

As part of its 2023–24 men’s basketball preseason coverage, Sports Illustrated is rolling out previews for each of the six high-major conferences. Next up is the Big Ten.

The Big Ten’s miserable March track record continued in 2022–23. The headliner was Purdue’s stunning loss to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson, but just one of the league’s eight teams that went dancing reached the second weekend, and the Big Ten’s championship drought added another year to its tally. The March skepticism is understandable, but the league won’t stop earning bids to the Big Dance unless its strong nonconference work stops. Is this the year a Big Ten squad finally breaks through?

SI’s picks for …

Player of the Year: Zach Edey, Purdue

Newcomer of the Year: Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan

Dark-Horse Team: Wisconsin

First-Team All-Conference:

• Boo Buie, Northwestern
• Jahmir Young, Maryland
• Tyson Walker, Michigan State
• Terrence Shannon, Illinois
• Zach Edey, Purdue

SI’s predicted order of finish:

1. Purdue

• PG Braden Smith
• SG Fletcher Loyer
• SF Ethan Morton
• PF Trey Kaufman-Renn
• C Zach Edey

The Fairleigh Dickinson jokes won’t stop until Purdue finally breaks through in March. But this is still a team coming off a No. 1 seed, and the Big Ten regular season and tournament championships bring back all five starters, including the defending consensus National Player of the Year. Purdue is going to be really, really good again. Ending its March woes may come down to everyone but Edey: What jump do sophomore guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer make, and can other x-factors like freshman Myles Colvin and RS-sophomore forward Trey Kaufman-Renn break through?

Star center Zach Edey returns to a stacked Purdue roster :: Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK

2. Michigan State

• PG A.J. Hoggard
• SG Tyson Walker
• SF Jaden Akins
• PF Malik Hall
• C Mady Sissoko

Is this Tom Izzo’s last best chance at a national title? There’s huge optimism brewing in East Lansing, with four starters back and a loaded incoming freshman class. The Spartans will be awesome in the backcourt, with Tyson Walker back for his extra season of eligibility, and contributors A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins also returning. Plus, Michigan State has far more depth and athleticism than it has had lately, and giving Izzo roster continuity is a scary thing for Big Ten opponents

3. Illinois

• PG Ty Rodgers
• SG Terrence Shannon Jr.
• SF Marcus Domask
• PF Quincy Guerrier
• C Coleman Hawkins

Things never quite clicked for a talented Illinois team in 2022–23. Blaming bad chemistry in hindsight is always easy, but there were plenty of big personalities in that locker room, and it showed. This reworked roster for Brad Underwood has plenty of promise, surrounding returning star Terrence Shannon Jr. with more shooting and defensive versatility than they had a year ago. The lone concern is point guard play, with the Illini seemingly intent on turning to glue guy Ty Rodgers (an elite defender with impressive passing chops) as a full-time floor general. If that bet pays off, watch out.

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4. Maryland

• PG Jahmir Young
• SG DeShawn Harris-Smith
• SF Jordan Geronimo
• PF Donta Scott
• C Julian Reese

Getting star point guard Jahmir Young back for one more year was a huge boon for Kevin Willard, as was the return of starting frontcourt players Donta Scott and Julian Reese. But the swing pieces that could push this Terrapin team from good to great are a pair of freshman wings, DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jamie Kaiser. Harris-Smith is an electric scorer who gives Maryland a look it didn’t have last year in the backcourt, while Kaiser’s two-way impact without needing the ball in his hands popped on the summer AAU circuit last year.

5. Wisconsin

• PG Chucky Hepburn
• SG Connor Essegian
• SF AJ Storr
• PF Tyler Wahl
• C Steven Crowl

It was obvious in 2022–23 that Wisconsin needed to upgrade its talent level. The Badgers did that with one high-profile portal add, but also didn’t get away from what has made this program tick over the last few decades: player development and continuity. Getting Tyler Wahl back was huge, especially if he can stay healthier than he did in an injury-riddled ’23. The Badgers also need a more efficient year from Chucky Hepburn as a junior, but St. John’s transfer AJ Storr gives Greg Gard a combination of athleticism and shotmaking ability he desperately needed, and that makes this group an intriguing Big Ten dark horse.

Tyler Wahl looks to lead a revamped Wisconsin team back to the NCAA tournament :: Candice Ward/USA TODAY Sports

6. Ohio State

• PG Bruce Thornton
• SG Roddy Gayle
• SF Scotty Middleton
• PF Jamison Battle
• C Zed Key

The Buckeyes cratered to a 19-loss 2023 season, the program’s worst since the late 1990s. Good news came late in the season, though, as young talents like Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle and Felix Okpara came into their own with more reps. Thornton profiles as one of the better floor generals in the nation and looked outstanding down the stretch last season, while Gayle and Okpara had bright moments as well. Add in another loaded recruiting class and some floor-spacing from Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle, and the Buckeyes should be back dancing in ’24.

7. Indiana

• PG Xavier Johnson
• SG Trey Galloway
• SF Mackenzie Mgbako
• PF Malik Reneau
• C Kel’el Ware

Mike Woodson ushers in the post–Trayce Jackson-Davis era in Bloomington with some serious young talent. Five-star freshman Mackenzie Mgbako and Oregon transfer Kel’el Ware will bring NBA eyeballs to campus all season long. But how much will that duo contribute to winning in the college game? Ware struggled to consistently produce as a freshman at Oregon, and consistency was a main concern for Mgbako coming out of high school. The Hoosiers also lack shooting around those two talents, which could make generating offense in the half court challenging. The upside is there, but the floor is lower than it was with Jackson-Davis in tow.

8. Northwestern

• PG Boo Buie
• SG Ryan Langborg
• SF Ty Berry
• PF Brooks Barnhizer
• C Matt Nicholson

The Wildcats were one of the nation’s biggest surprises a season ago, riding an improved defense and clutch backcourt play to the program’s second NCAA tournament berth. Can they replicate that success in 2024? The return of Boo Buie certainly helps, as he blossomed into an elite guard a season ago and could well be Northwestern’s all-time leading scorer by the end of this season. Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg should be a plug-and-play contributor, and watch out for a breakout from Brooks Barnhizer (12 ppg, 7 rpg in last season’s final eight games).

9. Rutgers

• PG Noah Fernandes
• SG Derek Simpson
• SF Gavin Griffiths
• PF Mawot Mag
• C Clifford Omoruyi

Limping to the finish line cost Rutgers a third straight trip to the NCAA tournament in 2023. Getting back in the Big Dance this season feels attainable, though a new backcourt trio will have plenty to say about that. The hope is that freshman Gavin Griffiths and sophomore Derek Simpson provide some dynamism that its backcourt lacked a year ago, but Cam Spencer and Paul Mulcahy were above-average guards whose production won’t be easily replaced. Expect a big year at center from Clifford Omoruyi, who has developed into one of the league’s best bigs.

10. Michigan

• PG Dug McDaniel
• SG Jaelin Llewellyn
• SF Nimari Burnett
• PF Olivier Nkamhoua
• C Tarris Reed Jr.

Purely based on vibes, it was an ugly offseason for the Wolverines. Coming off missing the NCAA tournament despite having an All-American in Hunter Dickinson and two top-20 draft picks, the Wolverines had to reset the roster, then lost committed SG Caleb Love in May due to admissions issues. The end result isn’t nearly as bad as public perception might lead you to believe: Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua should make a significant impact, and sophomores Dug McDaniel and Tarris Reed Jr. have major potential.

Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua boosts Michigan’s roster after Hunter Dickinson’s exit :: Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK

11. Iowa

• PG Tony Perkins
• SG Josh Dix
• SF Patrick McCaffery
• PF Payton Sandfort
• C Ben Krikke

At this point, we know what to expect from a Fran McCaffery Iowa team: elite offense, issues on defense. The Hawkeyes lost a top-5 pick in Keegan Murray and still ranked among the five best offenses nationally on KenPom a season ago, but its 168th-ranked defense doomed them to a midpack finish. This group will be hard to guard yet again, especially if Payton Sandfort bounces back after shooting just 34% from three last season. But it will take some special firepower for this group to go dancing as it attempts to replace Kris Murray’s 20 points per game from a season ago.

12. Penn State

• PG Ace Baldwin Jr.
• SG RayQuawndis Mitchell
• SF Zach Hicks
• PF Puff Johnson
• C Qudus Wahab (needs NCAA waiver)

You couldn’t script a more drastic stylistic coaching shift than going from Micah Shrewsberry to Mike Rhoades, but that’s what the Nittany Lions did this spring when Shrewsberry left for Notre Dame. This is a completely new-look roster for a coach who will emphasize toughness, athleticism and pressure defensively. Bringing along point guard Ace Baldwin Jr. from VCU is huge, but I’m not sure there are enough difference-makers around him for this team to stay out of the Big Ten’s bottom tier.

13. Nebraska

• PG Jarron “Boogie” Coleman
• SG Keisei Tominaga
• SF Brice Williams
• PF Juwan Gary
• C Rienk Mast

The Cornhuskers made some incremental strides last season and were legitimately feisty down the stretch, but do lose some huge pieces in PG Sam Griesel and big man Derrick Walker. Those two were key in Nebraska finding a more physical identity than it had shown earlier in the Fred Hoiberg era. Bradley transfer Rienk Mast could help continue that ethos into 2023–24, but I’m not sure where the points are coming from other than Keisei Tominaga, whose all-time heater down the stretch last season was awesome to watch.

14. Minnesota

• PG Mike Mitchell Jr.
• SG Cam Christie
• SF Joshua Ola-Joseph
• PF Dawson Garcia
• C Pharrel Payne

Patience is running out quickly for Ben Johnson at Minnesota thanks to a 7–33 record in Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers haven’t been dealt any favors from an injury standpoint, but also have just needed more talent to compete. Better health should help this year, as should growth from young talents like Josh Ola-Joseph and Pharrel Payne. But it’s hard to have too much optimism here given the unproven nature of this backcourt.