College Football Week 11 Picks: Georgia, Michigan Face Toughest Tests Yet

Ole Miss visits the Bulldogs between the hedges while the Wolverines travel to Happy Valley for their first game against a ranked foe.

You blink and the season’s almost over. Three weeks are left in the regular season and as good as the competition is on the field, the battle in our picks column is getting good, too. With Pat Forde only up one game on Richard Johnson, who wins in the end? And more importantly for your daily lives, which teams will cover the spread this week?

All lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook.
Last week: Forde 4–1, Johnson 3–2
Season: Forde 27-25-2, Johnson 26-26-2

No. 8 Alabama (-10.5) vs Kentucky

Johnson: Alabama. I’m sorry, I’m just not taking Kentucky seriously in this kind of spot. Similarly to the Georgia game, I think the Tide rolls over a Cats squad that’s just not up to the task when they’re significantly out-talented by a team that wants to play their brand of rock-em-sock-em football.

Forde: Alabama. The Crimson Tide seem to be in That Mode, where they just start rolling opponents and don't stop. In addition to the improved play of Jalen Milroe (including an improved game plan that lets him run more freely), Alabama has notably reduced its penalty yardage as the season has gone along. That was a major problem much of last year and at times this year, but the Tide has only been flagged 12 times in the last three games for a total of 100 yards. Kentucky's only chance is for Alabama to beat itself, and this team has grown out of that.

Milroe had a breakout game on the ground last week against LSU, rushing for 155 yards and four touchdowns on 20 carries :: John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Michigan (-4.5) vs. No. 10 Penn State

Johnson: Michigan. I do think the Wolverines will be in for a proper tussle in this game, but I just cannot see Penn State’s offense doing enough here. They’re just not explosive enough, and a similar problem Penn State encountered in the Ohio State game will emerge in the end. Thankfully for the Nittany Lions, Michigan doesn’t have a Marvin Harrison, Jr. But they’ve got plenty of other firepower.

Forde: Michigan. Well, this is a shot in the dark. Will Jim Harbaugh coach? How distracted has the entire Michigan operation been this week, as the showdown with the Big Ten has loomed closer? And on the other side, can Penn State raise its level of play after laying an egg at Ohio State? In a vacuum, Michigan should win and cover this easily; here in the real world, I'll bet that the Wolverines win and cover it barely.

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Miami vs. No. 4 Florida State (-14.5)

Johnson: Florida State. Miami does have a penchant for treating this like the Super Bowl and Florida State has issues in its WR corps with injuries. But Miami has what seems like significant issues at QB with poor play. It’s not a recipe for success in Tallahassee.

Forde: Miami. This is an intuition pick more than one based on anything the Hurricanes have shown as this season has slid toward disappointment. But a rivalry home game against an opponent with unknown availability for two standout wide receivers presents an opportunity. So I'm going to ride with the Hurricanes and hope they haven't spit the bit on the season.

No. 18 Utah vs. No. 5 Washington (-9)

Johnson: Washington. God love the Utes, they just don’t have the offense to keep up here. Utah will chew up and spit out lesser teams, but isn’t frisky enough in the higher weight class. They’ll bow down here.

Forde: Utah. This number just feels too big. Washington isn't dominating opponents the way it did earlier in the season, and the Utes got their attitude back last week against Arizona State after being thumped by Oregon. The Huskies will win but Utah will slow their offensive machine and cover the spread.

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has thrown 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in six SEC games :: Joshua L. Jones/USA TODAY NETWORK

No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Georgia (-11)

Johnson: Georgia. Despite plenty of injuries on both sides at this point in the season, Georgia will be able to overcome. Even a limited version of Brock Bowers is better than nothing if he ends up suiting up in this game, and Carson Beck has shown he’s an additive to winning at this point.

Forde: Georgia. The Mississippi defense is the weak link here, especially against a Bulldogs offense that has performed consistently the last four games. And if Brock Bowers returns—something that probably won't be known before Saturday, and maybe a game-time decision—that's another weapon back in the arsenal.