Breaking Down the Big 12’s Wide-Open Conference Championship Race

A conference that’s had six teams reach its title game in the past three years has another crowded pack of contenders. Plus, Oregon State could close down the Pac-12 in style.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where UCLA needs to keep a sharper eye on its visiting recruits: 

First Quarter: Texas A&M conundrum | Second Quarter: Melodramatic Michigan | Third Quarter: Coach of the Year race

Fourth Quarter: The Big Bottleneck in the Big 12

For fans who enjoy the occasional assault upon the status quo of college football, the Big 12 has been a reliable source of entertainment in recent seasons. The league has had six different teams make its conference championship game in the previous three years, and this season’s race to JerryWorld could get very weird in the final two weeks.

Texas (31) currently leads at 6–1 but has had close shaves in three of its last four games. Where it gets really interesting, though, is behind the Longhorns. There is a four-way tie for second at 5–2 between Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Kansas State—and it could get more crowded after this weekend if things get really weird.

The Big 12’s Oklahoma schools could find themselves outside of the conference championship with both owning two conference losses with two weeks to go :: Sarah Phipps/USA TODAY Network

If every Big 12 home team wins this weekend, Texas and Iowa State (32) would be tied at the top at 6–2 with a six-way tie for second between Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia and Texas Tech at 5–3. The chances of that happening? Slim. Big 12 teams are 28–20 at home this season, not an overwhelming number, and a home sweep this weekend would require four upsets.

If the favorites all win this weekend, Texas would be 7–1 with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State tied for second at 6–2. If the favorites win out through Nov. 25, the Longhorns would be 8–1 with those same three teams tied for second. And thanks to a newly clarified Big 12 tiebreaker, Oklahoma State (33) would advance to face the Horns for the title by virtue of having beaten both the Sooners and Wildcats during the regular season.

But that wasn’t at all clear before this week. An obtusely written new tiebreaker, put into effect for this season in which the Big 12 has 14 teams, actually did not take into account head-to-head records in a three-way tie. It took an inquiry from Berry Tramel of Sellout Crowd to help bring the league to its senses.

So at this point, rule out nothing—including a Cyclones upset of Texas in Ames on Saturday. Iowa State has won three of the last four in the series, and the lone loss in that stretch was by three in a controversial ending last year in Austin. Two late replay reviews went Texas’s way, and Iowa State’s star receiver Xavier Hutchinson dropped a pass that could have helped the Cyclones cement a win.

The ultimate scenario, as concocted by the busybodies at Reddit, would be an eight-way tie for first at 6–3. Dare to dream.

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Oregon State’s Moment

Oregon State (34) has won one conference championship since 1964, and that was a shared Pac-10 title in 2000 with Washington. (The Huskies beat the Beavers head-to-head and went to the Rose Bowl.) The school’s football history is so historically modest that it wasn’t until this season that the Beavers got back within 100 fewer all-time wins (492) than losses (587).

Which makes the current opportunity that much bigger and more urgent. The Beavers are 8–2, with games remaining against the top two teams in the league, Washington and Oregon (35). Win them both and Oregon State will advance to the Pac-12 championship game, in the last year that the Pac-12 is a real thing and not a ghost conference. Getting there by virtue of beating two of the schools that were instrumental in the demise of the conference—which threatens to kneecap Oregon State’s status as a high-major athletic program—would be the sweetest of all victories.

Meanwhile, Oregon State and fellow castoff Washington State (36) scored a victory in court Tuesday over the Deserting Ten. A judge granted the two schools a preliminary injunction that gives them control of the Pac-12, and with that millions of dollars in assets. The Dash is wholly in favor of the schools that left solely for money being entitled to exactly none of the money they’re leaving behind. We’ll see how that plays out as the legal wrangling continues, but round one went to the aggrieved parties.

Smith has an opportunity to guide his alma mater to consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in school history :: James Snook/USA TODAY Sports

On the field, sixth-year Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith (37) has painstakingly built his alma mater to the point of having this (last) shot at a Pac-12 title. Are the Beavers good enough? We’ll see. They’re a well-balanced team that ranks in the top four in the conference in both total offense and total defense, something only one other team can say (Oregon). They are second in the league in turnover margin. They can run the ball and they can stop the run. Their passing game is efficient, if not outrageously explosive.

It’s always been an uphill climb for an athletic program that never had a Phil Knight or the locational allure of the Pac-12 opponents that are in or near big cities (Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix). But Oregon State can at least see the top of the hill right now. One of its biggest football moments ever is at hand, and time is of the essence. It might never have a chance at winning something this big again.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week

Kenny Dillingham (38), Arizona State. The Sun Devils could easily be playing out the string on a rebuilding season, but that hasn’t happened under rookie head coach Dillingham. Saturday, his Sun Devils upset UCLA on the road—their second win in the last three games after starting 1–6, and they used some throwback innovation to do it.

On five occasions, Dillingham put his offense in the “swinging gate” formation, with a small group of players around the ball and others—including linemen—split out wide. The formation is most often used on two-point conversions, but Dillingham made it part of the regular playbook for this game, and it worked on multiple occasions.

Dillingham said postgame that ASU special adviser Marvin Lewis mentioned Jim Fassel running it while offensive coordinator at Utah in the 1970s, so Dillingham googled the formation and put it to use. Against UCLA, Dillingham had three players take snaps at quarterback and throw passes, just one of whom is a full-time QB. The others were running back Cam Skattebo (who threw a 25-yard touchdown), and 270-pound tight end Jalin Conyers, who completed two passes and ran the ball six times.

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work

Mike Gundy (39), Oklahoma State. The Bedlam hangover for the Cowboys was so bad that they woke up in jail. Or at least the Central Florida version of jail, as they were housed by the Knights 45–3 one week after defeating bitter rival Oklahoma in the last scheduled Bedlam game. A letdown was understandable, but not a complete collapse while in the thick of the Big 12 championship race. That’s two complete no-show performances for Gundy’s team this year, alongside the 33–7 home loss to South Alabama. The Mullet’s teams are reliably unpredictable.

Point After

When thirsty in the blessed beer territory of Colorado, The Dash recommends a Lush Puppy IPA from Longmont-based Bootstrap Brewing (40). Get one on draft at a place with a view of the mountains on a sunny day and thank The Dash later.

First Quarter: Texas A&M conundrum | Second Quarter: Melodramatic Michigan | Third Quarter: Coach of the Year race