College Football Playoff Selection Committee Still Faces Six Potential Headache Scenarios

There are still eight teams in contention for four playoff spots, and conference championship weekend could make things difficult for the CFP committee.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (bowl trips sold separately at transitioning FBS members James Madison and Jacksonville State, which should stop the shouting about NCAA rules since the number of bowl-eligible teams worked out in their favor after all):

First Quarter: Selection Committee Stress Test

With the exception of fringe contender Louisville, everyone in the College Football Playoff mix survived and advanced to the final week. There were scares for Alabama, Washington and Florida State. There was a loss for Ohio State. But the top eight teams all have a path that could lead them to the playoff—with some paths being more direct than others.

This unprecedented pileup of contenders will put the CFP selection committee to the test next Saturday and Sunday. Let’s examine a few scenarios and their potential complications:

Isaiah Bond’s instant classic touchdown on fourth-and-31 kept the Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes alive :: John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports

Scenario 1: Alabama (1) defeats Georgia (2) in the Southeastern Conference championship game. This would create the potential for one of two momentous developments—the SEC champion missing the playoff, or a major head-to-head result would be nullified.

The SEC has never missed the playoff. It has won the past four national championships with three different schools—LSU, Alabama and Georgia. It has won six titles in the playoff era, while no other conference has won more than two. But if Michigan, Washington and Florida State all win their league title games to go 13–0, the focus is on the fourth spot. Could 12–1 SEC champion Alabama really vault over 12–1 Big 12 champ Texas and into the bracket?

That would trigger the second controversy: Texas (3) beat ‘Bama in Tuscaloosa by 10 points. Yeah, it was a long time ago—Sept. 9, to be specific. But doesn’t head-to-head have to matter when both teams would have the same record? Wouldn’t there have to be a reward for taking on a game at Alabama and winning it? Especially in an era when programs like Michigan are dumping non-conference games against Power Five opponents?

Either alternative would be difficult to to swallow—a playoff in which the SEC is excluded or a playoff in which head-to-head results of a major non-conference game don’t matter. Prepare for a Greg Sankey telethon of lobbying on the SEC Network if ‘Bama beats Georgia, or for more talk about the state of Texas seceding from the union if the Crimson Tide gets in ahead of the Longhorns.

Scenario 2: Undefeated teams stay undefeated—but one is left out. If No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Washington and No. 4 Florida State all win their conference championship games, this would seem pretty easy, right? But here’s the possible tension—what if Florida State (4) labors to beat Louisville in similar fashion to how the Seminoles struggled against Florida on Saturday night?

FSU has a two-game audition with Tate Rodemaker (5) at quarterback in place of injured star Jordan Travis. Rodemaker got the job done Saturday night in The Swamp, leading a comeback from a 12–0 deficit for a 24–15 Florida State win to reach 12–0. When it comes to game control—to use one of those nebulous committee terms—the ‘Noles didn’t have a lot against the Gators. They took the lead for good with 7:17 remaining in the game. Their 224 yards of offense and 3.93 yards per play were season lows.

But they also won the game. And if they beat Louisville by even a point to go 13–0, it would run counter to everything the committee has done in its 10 seasons of existence to exclude an undefeated Power Five champion.

Still: the committee’s charge is to select the four best teams. Would Florida State, minus its star QB and coming off successive struggles be a better playoff team, than 12–1 Texas? Probably not on the field. But excluding the Seminoles in that instance would invite a level of controversy that no committee has come close to taking on before.

Scenario 3: Ohio State (6) backs into the bracket for a second straight year.

Here’s how it could happen: Georgia beats Alabama; Michigan snuffs out Iowa; Washington sweeps Oregon; but Louisville takes down Florida State in Charlotte and Oklahoma State stuns Texas in Arlington. That would leave the committee with three unbeaten teams and only one P5 team with a single loss—the Buckeyes.

At the very least, Ohio State would be coming in after playing a high-quality game against undefeated Michigan. That’s more palatable than getting in last year after a 22-point home loss to the Wolverines. At 11–1, with wins over Notre Dame and Penn State and a six-point loss in Ann Arbor, there really wouldn’t be another candidate ahead of the Buckeyes.

That said, even coach Ryan Day (7) had a hard time summoning an argument for his program Saturday after the dispiriting third straight loss to Michigan.

“I haven’t even thought that far,” he said. “Everything was so focused on this game. I’d have to kind of process that. We have a very good team, we came up short today, it was devastating, but I believe in our players. I’d have to see what else is out there … but I do believe we can play with any team in the country.”

Given how bad the Big Ten is after the Big Two (plus Penn State, kinda), the committee might not be too enthusiastic about giving the league half the bracket again.

Oregon pasted their in-state rivals by a score of 31–7 on Saturday after the Beavers had lost to Washington by just two points the weekend prior :: Troy Wayrynen/USA TODAY Sports

Scenario 4: Oregon (8) vs. Texas for the fourth spot.

In this one, Georgia, Michigan and Florida State win to finish 13–0. But Oregon reverses its loss in Seattle to Washington and the Longhorns roll over Oklahoma State. They’re both 12–1, but only one gets in. Which one?

The Ducks should—they already have been ranked ahead of the Longhorns, and they would have the better win this week by taking down a top-five opponent. Both would have similar losses—Oregon by three against Washington in a game that went to the wire, and Texas by four to Oklahoma in a game that went to the wire. (In this instance, Texas was not served well by Oklahoma State getting into the Big 12 title game instead of the Sooners; both the Ducks and Horns would then have opportunities to avenge their only loss.)

Historically, the Pac-12 has been easy for the committee to leave out. But this year it had the best non-conference performance of any league. However, Texas could counter that it had the single best non-con victory of any team—and it could play the comparative score game. Oregon beat Texas Tech by eight in September, while Texas beat the Red Raiders by 50 on Friday.

Scenario 5: Two teams from the Pac-12 (9).

Let’s say Oregon and Washington play their second classic game of the season, with Dan Lanning avoiding giving the game away with bad fourth-down decisions this time. Let’s say the Ducks win at the end and both teams are 12–1 in what has been the nation’s deepest league.

Now let’s say Louisville beats Florida State, Georgia beats Alabama to eliminate the Tide, and Oklahoma State beats Texas to eliminate the Horns. Georgia and Michigan are the top two seeds and Oregon is the No. 3 seed. Could Washington win a resumé contest for fourth over Ohio State? Both would have a single loss over a playoff team. But the Huskies also would have a win over a playoff team, in addition to a better record (12–1 vs. 11–1).

Scenario 6: Total chaos (10). This is the personal Dash favorite.

All four undefeated teams lose: Georgia to Alabama, Michigan to Iowa (work with The Dash here), Washington to Oregon, Florida State to Louisville. Throw in a Texas loss to Oklahoma State. Who gets in?

Alabama and Oregon would lead the list. Georgia probably is the third team in. Then it’s probably a choice between Washington or Michigan, and the Huskies seemingly would win that contest by virtue of having split with Oregon and having played a better non-conference schedule.

Regardless, it would be a wild exercise—on a tight deadline—for the committee to sift through the wreckage if all the 12–0 teams suddenly fell apart at the same time after holding it together for so long.