2024 CFP Sugar Bowl Quick Picks: Washington Underestimated Once Again vs. Texas

The undefeated Huskies return to the College Football Playoff as underdogs against the Longhorns in what should be a high-scoring matchup.

As the good man Sam Ehlinger once said the last time the Longhorns were in the Sugar Bowl: “We’re baaaaack.” Indeed, welcome back to the Longhorns, who make the College Football Playoff for the first time and will face Washington, a repeat Pac-12 entrant who returns to the CFP in the final year of the conference as we know it. At first glance, both semifinal games have distinct identities. Michigan vs. Alabama has all the physicality you could ask for, while Texas-Washington seems like it will produce an entertaining, points-filled showdown.

So who wins this one, and more importantly, who covers? Here are our knee jerk picks from college football experts Richard Johnson and Pat Forde.

Last week: Forde 3–3, Johnson 3–3. Season: Forde 41–32–2, Johnson 39–34–2. Sign up for SI Sportsbook today.

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Texas (-4.5) vs. Washington

Johnson: Washington. The Huskies get to play the “nobody believes in us” card. Washington was a 9.5-point underdog against Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game, and won the damn thing outright. They’re going to be told for the next month that Texas is the new, shiny thing that’s capable of beating them. And maybe Texas can win, but if you’re giving me points with this Washington offense I am inclined to take them gladly. And that goes double against a Texas team that struggles to finish drives at times. There’s a shootout in the makings here (the total is 64). Give me purple rain to cash.

Forde: Washington. Las Vegas continues to disrespect the Huskies. After they won as 9.5-point underdogs to Oregon, this spread surprises me. Washington is battle-tested, having come through the deepest conference undefeated and sporting a 7–0 record in one-score games. Texas has played two great games in a row, but against underwhelming competition (Oklahoma State hasn’t been the same since winning Bedlam). And the Big 12 wasn’t a great league this year.

At the risk of reading too much into it, I like how Washington handled Selection Sunday. The Huskies had no watch party, no team celebration. Making the CFP wasn’t the end goal, and they didn’t act like it was. They’ll be ready for the Longhorns.