Michigan Is Going to the Playoff. Who Joins the Wolverines Is Anyone’s Guess

Michigan’s win in the Big Ten title game secures its CFP spot. But the committee’s task in filling out the rest of the field is the most daunting choice we’ve seen yet.

As a dreadfully dull Big Ten championship game mercifully ended, the real show began in Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday night. How were commissioner Tony Petitti and Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh—protagonists in a bitter November drama—going to share the same stage?

After the Wolverines finished a workmanlike 26–0 victory over Iowa, the stage apparatus was wheeled out and put in place on the field. Petitti went up on the dais in advance of the Michigan party, shared some words with Fox analyst Joel Klatt, then waited for the Wolverines.

Harbaugh took the stage, appeared to have a cursory handshake with Petitti, then waved up several of the key players on his undefeated team. If any of the players acknowledged the commissioner who had suspended their coach for the previous three games, it was brief. Petitti then moved to the back of the stage while Klatt presented the trophy to injured Michigan offensive lineman Zak Zinter. After coaching his first game since Nov. 4, Harbaugh said a few words, asking the crowd his trademark rhetorical question: “Who’s got it better than us?”

“NOBODY,” came the roaring response.

Petitti, some other Big Ten personnel and a security detail then made a quick exit, catching a torrent of boos as they passed under the stands and into the tunnel. They were whisked into a waiting Jeep Grand Wagoneer and were gone well before the Wolverines had even exited the stage.

After dismantling Iowa Saturday, Harbaugh has Michigan in the playoff for the third consecutive season :: AJ Mast/AP

All things considered, it was fairly simple punctuation to an emotionally charged saga. Now the only remaining complexity in this season falls to the College Football Playoff selection committee to get the field of four teams right.

Michigan is in. Washington is in. After that, the choices facing the selection committee Sunday are brutal—and could have been alleviated if the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Atlantic Coast conferences hadn’t spent more than a year roadblocking a 12-team playoff in time for this season.One of the following three teams has to go:

• Florida State, which is the undefeated champion of the ACC but limped home with multiple quarterback injuries. Star Jordan Travis’ season is over. Backup Tate Rodemaker filled in against North Alabama and then got almost all the snaps against Florida but missed the ACC title game with a concussion. Third-stringer Brock Glenn was in over his head as the Seminoles wheezed past Louisville Saturday night, 16–6.

• Alabama, which is the 12–1 champion of the Southeastern Conference—the league that has won the last four playoffs with three different schools, the league that has won six of the nine playoffs, the league that has had at least one member in every playoff. And the Crimson Tide got there by ending No. 1, two-time reigning champion Georgia’s 29-game winning streak.

• Texas, which is the 12–1 champion of the Big 12 and beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa by 10 points in September.

So, which compelling argument is rejected? Is a 13–0 champ of a Power Five league left out for the first time? Is the SEC champ left out for the first time? Is a head-to-head result ignored?

(Another question the committee likely is wrestling with: did No. 3 Washington do enough to leapfrog No. 2 Michigan and claim the top seed? The Huskies were impressive in beating 9.5-point favorite Oregon Friday night, while the Wolverines were dispatching an opponent that really shouldn’t have been here—and won’t be in the future, when the Big Ten does away with divisions.)

Although Florida State is a significantly diminished team, I don’t expect the committee to leave the Seminoles out—though they might be dealt a No. 4 seed instead of a No. 3. I also don’t expect the committee to choose Alabama over a team that defeated it. The results of the games have to matter, and the results say Texas over the Crimson Tide.

My bracket: No. 1 seed Washington vs. No. 4 Florida State in the Rose Bowl; No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

That would leave out the SEC, and heaven help us all if that comes to pass and reverberates around the South in the coming days. It’s going to be angry and ugly. But somebody has to go.

Really, it’s surprising that this type of logjam hasn’t happened more often. Other than the first playoff in 2014, most of the committee’s decisions have been fairly simple and straightforward. Whatever controversy existed from ‘15–22 was small and short-lived.

Prior to Saturday night, the only Championship Week development that made the committee’s job any easier this year was Washington beating Oregon. If the Ducks and Huskies had both finished 12–1, that would have added another team to the equation. At kickoff of the Big Ten and ACC games after 8 p.m. ET, Washington was the only team that could feel sure it was in the field.

The Seminoles staggered through their title game. The Wolverines didn’t exactly roll, but they also were never threatened by an Iowa team that was dragged down by the nation’s worst offense.

Given the predictable mismatch, a lot of Iowa fans didn’t bother coming to Indy. Instead, a huge Michigan crowd overran the city and took the vast majority of seats in the stadium. They got what they came for, and now will aim for something bigger.

Michigan rolls into the playoff for the third straight year and is 13–0 for the second straight season. Only two other schools have made three or more straight playoff fields: Alabama (five straight from 2014–18) and Clemson (six straight from ‘15–20).

But Michigan also is 0–2 in the playoff, having been punked by Georgia in 2021 and stunned by TCU in ’22. Those were humbling losses after breaking through the Ohio State firewall. The expectations will be for more this time around.

This team is probably better than both of those versions of the Wolverines, and the rest of the field is less daunting. There is no one of Georgia’s 2021–22 caliber this time around. Outside of the luckless Seminoles (if they do make the field), everyone else should feel like they have a legitimate chance of winning the national title.

By noon Sunday, we’ll know the lineup for the final act of this season. Don’t blame the selection committee members if they look a little haggard at that time. Their job has never been tougher than it is this year.