Sugar Bowl Preview: Washington Ready to Play the Underdog Card Against Texas

The Longhorns are considered the favorites despite the Huskies’ undefeated record heading into the New Year’s Day College Football Playoff semifinal.

Texas is officially back … in the Sugar Bowl. Remember what Sam Ehlinger said the last time they were here? For the first time in over a decade, the Horns are where they feel like they belong: competing for a national championship. Despite a rocky October and early November in which it took a loss to Oklahoma and had close shaves in conference play, Texas has arrived under Steve Sarkisian. In many ways, their season mirrors Washington (besides the loss) as the Huskies had to grind out results in the back half of the season. Dominant displays from both on conference championship weekend have landed them in New Orleans for a New Year’s showdown.

Storyline you’re already tired of: Washington as the underdog

Despite the fact that the Huskies have a plausible claim at the No. 1 ranking, they enter the Sugar Bowl as an underdog, with early betting lines featuring Texas as a 4.5-point favorite. It will be the second game in a row in which they’re a dog as Washington went into the Pac-12 title game as a 9.5-point underdog to Oregon. Washington is going to play the “nobody believes in us” card heavily from now right up until Jan. 1. Get used to it.

Key matchup to watch: Michael Penix Jr. vs. interior pressure

There’s one thing that neutralizes quarterbacks at all levels from Michael Penix Jr. to Tom Brady: interior pass rush. It forces quarterbacks to move off of their normal throwing platforms, creating opportunities for sacks by edge rushers and can hinder their inability to step up into the pocket or complete full throwing motions (especially key when throwing deep). Penix’s release is quick, and funky, and he will be put to a significant stress test with Texas’s interior punch of defensive tackles T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy. Can the Horns’ NFL-ready defensive linemen get to Washington’s Heisman hopeful?

Big 12 champion Texas comes into the matchup as early favorites against Pac-12 winner Washington.  :: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports; Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports

Underrated X-factor: Steve Sarkisian with a month to gameplan

There aren’t many playcallers who are better at finding ways to exploit the opponent than Sark. Ryan Day showed similar prowess crafting a gameplan in last year’s semifinal that almost unseated Georgia. Expect Sark to bring his best with a month to cook up something for Washington’s defense.

Texas wins if: It can turn this into a rock fight

A key to limiting this Washington offense is, as best you can, not letting it on the field. That actually may run counter to Texas, which is capable of explosive plays in the passing game. With no Jonathan Brooks at running back, can Texas effectively ground and pound and try to chew clock from the very start of the game? Borrowing the Oregon blueprint of fourth-down aggressiveness can also help steal possessions and potentially points on the margins.

Washington wins if: It can limit Texas to field goals instead of touchdowns

If there is one Achilles’ heel for Texas this season, it’s been finishing drives. One must run under an assumption when playing Washington: The Huskies are going to score touchdowns. Bringing threes to a seven fight ain’t gonna get the job done. If the Horns get into the red zone, they must get the ball in the end zone because, even with their adept receivers, a track meet against the Huskies is not desirable.