When Arizona, Houston and Other Men’s Hoops Unbeatens Will Fall

Just seven of 362 Division I teams have made it to December without anything in the loss column—SI’s Kevin Sweeney predicts who has the best chance of keeping it that way.

Men’s college basketball is down to just seven undefeated teams.

Nearly half of the 13 remaining unbeatens heading into last weekend lost, leaving us with just seven out of 362 Division I teams with a zero in the loss column as we approach the midway point in December. Who will be the last one standing? Last season, the sport was left without a single unbeaten team by the end of the first week of January. Will anyone go further than that this year? No team has completed the unthinkable undefeated full season since Indiana’s legendary 1976 team under Bob Knight, and just three teams since then have completed an undefeated regular season.

Here’s a look at how each current undefeated team got here and when its first loss might come.

Arizona (8–0)

The Wildcats are No. 1 in the AP poll and rank in the top five of KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. They picked up a huge road win at Duke in the season’s first week, beat Michigan State on a neutral floor on Thanksgiving and just blew out Wisconsin in Tucson on Saturday to solidify their stronghold on the top spot in the polls. Transfers Keshad Johnson (San Diego State) and Caleb Love (North Carolina) have been awesome, and Tommy Lloyd has gotten steady point guard play from sophomore Kylan Boswell. So far, Arizona looks every bit the part of a national title contender, maybe even the favorite.

Arizona has three huge tests before Christmas, all on neutral courts. In the span of eight days, the Wildcats will play against Purdue in Indianapolis, Alabama in Phoenix and Florida Atlantic in Las Vegas. Win all three of those (including a tough Purdue matchup), and the Wildcats might be undefeated for a while, especially with both USC and UCLA failing to live up to preseason hype thus far.

First loss: Dec. 16 vs. Purdue

Baylor (9–0)

The Bears have a pair of neutral-court wins over SEC foes Auburn and Florida, but otherwise haven’t been tested much in a nonconference schedule that heats up later this month with matchups against Michigan State and Duke. Baylor’s offense has been elite thanks to its dynamic backcourt: Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis and freshman Ja’Kobe Walter have been one of the best duos in the country so far, and as a team, Baylor is shooting a ridiculous 46% from three.

Michigan State and Duke will enter these late nonconference matchups relatively desperate after slow starts to the year. Can one of them pick off the Bears? If not, road games against Kansas State and Texas in mid-January feel like the time a first loss would come.

First loss: Jan. 20 vs. Texas

Clemson is showing signs of becoming an ACC contender :: John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports

Clemson (9–0)

Is Brad Brownell’s team an ACC contender? The Tigers’ recent impressive stretch (road wins at Alabama and Pittsburgh, a rivalry win over South Carolina and a neutral-court victory over TCU) has started that conversation, especially with Duke and Miami struggling some at the top of the league. I’m not ready to pick the Tigers just yet, but they’ve certainly earned their spot in the top 25 and look like a team that should finish near the top of the league. Big man PJ Hall has been awesome, and Syracuse transfer Joseph Girard III has fit right in in the backcourt.

But the undefeated run may not last long. Clemson has to face Memphis—an athletic team with several quality wins already—on the road Saturday. Plus, the Tigers have a tricky start to ACC play with road trips to Miami and Virginia Tech sandwiched around a home tilt with North Carolina.

First loss: Dec. 16 vs. Memphis

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Houston (10–0)

Houston lost Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker to the NBA this offseason and hasn’t missed a beat, with a perfect 10–0 start and an average margin of victory of nearly 27 points per game. That’s a credit to Kelvin Sampson, who has built one of the most consistent programs in college basketball rooted in elite defense, dominance on the offensive glass and outstanding player development in the backcourt. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer has made a huge impact, averaging nearly 18 points per game and shooting 40% from three.

It won’t be nearly as easy for Houston to stack wins in conference play as it has been in recent years with the Cougars now in the Big 12. But amazingly, per KenPom, Houston is actually favored in every game left on its schedule. Assuming it gets past Texas A&M this week, the next potential potholes are road tests at Iowa State and TCU back-to-back in early January. Get through those, and Houston could realistically enter February undefeated, though they have a matchup with Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 3.

First loss: Feb. 3 vs. Kansas

James Madison (9–0)

After quickly vaulting into the national consciousness by upsetting Michigan State on the season’s opening night, JMU has backed it up with a 9–0 start. The Dukes are an older team with tons of weapons offensively, with four players averaging in double figures headlined by junior wing Terrence Edwards. The nonconference schedule hasn’t been overly difficult outside of the opener in East Lansing, but a gaudy enough win-loss record could put the Dukes in the at-large bid mix.

JMU’s next three games are against teams ranked outside the top 300 on KenPom, and presently the Sun Belt has only one other top-150 team in Appalachian State. Road slipups are inevitable in league play, but there’s at least a path to an undefeated season or at least something close to that.

First loss: Jan. 13 vs. Appalachian State

Mississippi looks like an NCAA tournament squad so far :: Petre Thomas/USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss (9–0)

Chris Beard has immediately injected life into an Ole Miss program coming off three sub-.500 seasons in the last four years. The Rebels are 9–0 with notable wins over Memphis and NC State as well as a road win at UCF on Sunday, and have done all that despite not having Georgetown transfer Brandon Murray eligible.

How good is this Ole Miss team? Quality-based metrics are down on the Rebels: Ole Miss has actually dropped eight spots from No. 82 to No. 90 from the preseason in KenPom’s rankings, while the NET has them at No. 64 despite the undefeated start. But the wins don’t lie, and the Rebels have built a solid résumé throughout the season’s first several weeks. This team should come back to Earth some in SEC play, but still looks like an NCAA tournament team in Beard’s first year.

First loss: Jan. 6 vs. Tennessee

Oklahoma (9–0)

Oklahoma has been one of the biggest surprises in college basketball, with several strong wins early on to establish itself as a top-15 team and potential Big 12 dark horse with a mostly new-look roster. The Sooners blew out Providence and handled Arkansas last week after getting wins over Iowa and USC around Thanksgiving, leaning on a defense that has suffocated teams thanks to the Sooners’ impressive length and athleticism. Plus, Siena transfer Javian McCollum has made an immediate impact in the backcourt, providing shotmaking this team desperately lacked.

Facing North Carolina in Charlotte on Dec. 20 feels like a likely spot for a first loss, as could early road trips in Big 12 play to TCU and Kansas.

First loss: Dec. 20 vs. North Carolina