SI’s College Football Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2024

As the confetti is cleaned up in Houston, we forecast who will be next season’s teams to beat.

The confetti has just been swept up in Houston to close the 2023 college football season, but it’s never too soon for a way-too-early look at ’24. Next year will be wild—a 12-team Playoff and massive conference realignment moves have completely changed the landscape. This much is guaranteed: More top teams will lose more games, because the schedules—particularly in the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten—are ridiculous.

Amid all the unknowns, here’s the Sports Illustrated top 25 for 2024.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

In these uncertain times, start with the program that will never run out of talent and quality coaching (at least as long as Kirby Smart is in charge). Carson Beck will return at quarterback after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards this season, and some key portal additions (like running back Trevor Etienne) will keep him stocked with weapons. The Bulldogs’ defense also should regain the dominant edge it sometimes lacked in 2023.

With Beck back for 2024, Smart and the Bulldogs should be the team to beat :: Saul Young/News Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK

2. Oregon Ducks

Can the Ducks waddle into the Big Ten and immediately win it? Yes. Dillon Gabriel’s arrival from Oklahoma guarantees quality quarterbacking, and the other pieces should be in place. The offensive line should be very strong again. Oregon will make only three trips to the Midwest, none of them before Oct. 19.

3. Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns will have a quality quarterback, whether it’s Quinn Ewers staying for another season or Arch Manning taking over. The offensive line should be excellent, the running backs and receivers plenty good enough. There are some defensive holes to fill, but Steve Sarkisian’s recruiting has stacked up sufficient talent. Adding Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba through the transfer portal was big. Texas’s game at Michigan Sept. 7 is the nonconference game of the year nationally.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Crimson Tide will deal with the usual losses to the NFL, but there are a couple of noteworthy portal exits as well. Still, if Jalen Milroe continues his growth at quarterback, the offensive line improves and some receivers step up, this ranking might end up being too low. Safety Caleb Downs is a superstar in the making after producing 107 tackles, two interceptions and a punt return touchdown as a freshman. The schedule is brutal.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

After the Buckeyes’ first three-year losing streak to Michigan since 1995 to ’97, changes are happening in Columbus. There is roster churn and potentially some staff change as well. Will Howard will arrive at quarterback from Kansas State with the expectation that the Ohio State passing game will return to high-octane status. The Buckeyes had their best defense in years in 2023 and should be strong on that side of the ball once again.

6. Michigan Wolverines

This is the hardest team to predict for 2024. Will Jim Harbaugh still be the coach? Will he be suspended for more games? Is J.J. McCaffrey heading to the NFL? A long list of star Wolverines is definitely going pro, but cornerback Will Johnson should spearhead another excellent Michigan defense. The schedule is wild, with games against Texas, USC, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State.

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7. Mississippi Rebels

The Portal King brought in another haul, highlighted by defensive lineman Walter Nolan (from Texas A&M), receiver Juice Wells (from South Carolina) and linebacker Chris Paul (from Arkansas). Lane Kiffin did lose a big one in running back Quinshon Judkins, but there still should be sufficient skill talent surrounding returning quarterback Jaxson Dart.

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Riley Leonard is this year’s ACC transfer quarterback, following Sam Hartman last year. Leonard is a good athlete and productive runner who still has some proving to do as a passer, but the return of Mike Denbrock as offensive coordinator after two seasons at LSU could be just what he needs to take the next step. The Fighting Irish defense was strong in 2023 and should remain so, especially in the secondary. At a time when most schedules are getting much tougher, Notre Dame’s is largely the same in terms of number of heavyweight opponents. Look for the Irish to have one of the best records in the country.

9. Missouri Tigers

The Tigers should have one of the better passing attacks in the nation with the return of receivers Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr., who combined for nearly 1,900 receiving yards, along with quarterback Brady Cook. Replacing running back Cody Schrader and a lot of key defensive players will be a challenge, but Eli Drinkwitz has mined the portal for quality reinforcements. Freshman defensive end Williams Nwaneri, the nation’s No. 3 overall recruit according to Rivals, could make an instant impact.

Drinkwitz and the Tigers enjoyed a breakout 2023 campaign, going 11–2 with a Cotton Bowl win :: Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports

10. Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats were the hottest non-Playoff team in the country at season’s end, reeling off seven straight victories to set hopes soaring for 2024. Quarterback Noah Fifita will return after lighting up the final nine games of the season, as will his 6’5” receiving star, Tetairoa McMillan. The nucleus of a vastly improved defense will be back as well. The move to the Big 12 will bring some new challenges but theoretically an easier playoff path.

11. Penn State Nittany Lions

The Nittany Lions are hoping for an infusion of offensive electricity with the arrival of new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas. Job 1 in that department: upgrading a passing game after quarterback Drew Allar averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt, which tied for 77th nationally. Penn State may feel the loss of defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, now the head coach at Duke, but should still be stout on that side of the ball. Linebacker Abdul Carter has a chance to be a first-team All-American.

12. Tennessee Volunteers

Volunteers fans are eagerly anticipating Nico Iamaleava’s ascendance to the starting quarterback role, hoping he reenergizes an offense that took a step back in 2023. Adding wideout Chris Brazzell II (Tulane) and tight end Holden Staes (Notre Dame) via the portal to holdovers Bru McCoy and Squirrel White will help as well. Tennessee’s improved defense lost several key veterans but will get a couple of playmakers in the secondary from the portal as well, and has a rising star in edge rusher James Pearce Jr. (10 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss last year).

13. Utah Utes

The Utes went 8–5 without star quarterback Cam Rising playing a down, so expectations are for a climb back to double-digit wins as he returns to health. Utah will have to improve offensively around Rising, particularly on the line, but that can be accomplished. The defense, always stout, has plenty of returning talent but is losing two standout safeties.

14. Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles are looking at a fairly extensive rebuild after the 2023 undefeated season ending in injury and outrage. Transfer quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei’s return to the ACC makes the transition easier. Florida State should be good up front on both sides of the ball, while new playmakers will need to step up at offensive skill positions and in the back seven defensively. A home game against Clemson and a trip to Notre Dame could loom large.

15. Washington Huskies

Nine sixth-year seniors. Four potential first-round draft picks. The Heisman Trophy runner-up. Yeah, the Huskies are losing a lot. But Kalen DeBoer isn’t wired for willingly entering a slow rebuild—and as long as he retains offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, his team will score. To aid the turnaround, Washington grabbed Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers, who has thrown for more than 12,000 yards in his career. Some other talented players on the roster will get their chance to move up the depth chart in 2024. Michigan and Penn State are on the schedule, along with Oregon and USC.

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16. Clemson Tigers

The Tigers continue to search for the way back to dominance in the modern era—but they did finish 2023 on a five-game winning streak after the “Tyler from Spartanburg” radio show moment. Running back Will Shipley joins a couple of defensive stars in early entry to the draft, and as usual the transfer portal is almost exclusively a way for Clemson to lose players instead of adding them. But the Tigers will not be bereft of talent. Can quarterback Cade Klubnik find the consistency that has eluded him his first two college seasons? Can the program find or develop some explosive receivers?

17. LSU Tigers

Brian Kelly is retooling things heading into his third season in Baton Rouge. He blew up his defensive staff and must replace his offensive coordinator, Heisman-winning quarterback and two 1,000-yard receivers. Does Garrett Nussmeier get a shot to be QB1 after a strong bowl performance, or is Kelly still mulling potential portal additions at that position? Unsurprisingly, most of LSU’s portal additions so far have come in the secondary, where it was alarmingly weak in 2023.

18. Oklahoma Sooners

There is, once again, considerable roster and staff churn in Norman. Sooners offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby and quarterback Dillon Gabriel are out, with Seth Littrell and Jackson Arnold, respectively, moving up the organizational chart to replace them. (Arnold’s three-interception, one-fumble bowl performance was a bit of a concern.) The Sooners’ defense improved from 2022 to ’23 but probably needs to take another step for competitiveness in the SEC. The schedule is a doozy: Tennessee, Texas, Mississippi, Missouri, Alabama, LSU.

19. Kansas Jayhawks

The Lance Leipold miracle makeover continues for the Jayhawks, having gone from two wins to six to nine the past three seasons. Leipold lost his offensive coordinator to Penn State but retains his two best offensive players in quarterback Jalon Daniels and running back Devin Neal. The line will need some rebuilding. The Kansas defense has made strides every season and returns enough key parts to be better yet again in 2024.

Daniels and Neal will return for the 2024 season to provide Kansas with a powerful backfield duo :: Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports

20. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The mercurial Mike Gundy pulled out a 10-win season in 2023 and got a boost for ’24 when star running back Ollie Gordon announced he’s staying in school and quarterback Alan Bowman got another season of eligibility. The Cowboys have not been good defensively since coordinator Jim Knowles left for Ohio State two years ago, but a lot of young players got reps on that side of the ball and should be improved. The revamped Big 12 schedule is user-friendly, offering the Pokes a chance to compile a great record.

21. North Carolina State Wolfpack

Coming off a nine-win season, the Wolfpack have seen the portal turnstile spinning quickly. They’ve lost 20 players to it but added some big ones in quarterback Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina), running back Jordan Waters (Duke) and offensive lineman Zeke Correll (Notre Dame). NC State lost a defensive star in linebacker Payton Wilson but will return most other key players on that side of the ball. An early game in Charlotte against Tennessee could be a bellwether.

22. Kansas State Wildcats

The Wildcats have become recession-proof under Chris Klieman, winning 27 games over the past three seasons. But there is work to do in 2024 after losing quarterback Will Howard to Ohio State. Avery Johnson is an intriguing young signal-caller who will be a greater dual-threat player, and DJ Giddens is a centerpiece back. A young defense that had 23 takeaways in 2023 should once again be a salty unit.

23. Louisville Cardinals

Jeff Brohm worked wonders in his first season, winning 10 games in part by mastering the transfer portal. He’s done good work in that area again, stocking up on players who should be able to step in and play right away. Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough will arrive and could be an upgrade at quarterback—as he can stay healthy. The Cardinals lost a couple of early-entry players to the draft at running back and receiver but do have some depth at both spots. The most intriguing defensive addition is tackle Thor Griffith from Harvard, who was pursued by several power conference programs.

24. Boise State Broncos

The Broncos have considerable momentum heading into 2024. Interim coach Spencer Danielson got the job full-time after a strong finish to last season, then kept star running back Ashton Jeanty out of the podium, then landed USC transfer and former five-star quarterback recruit Malachi Nelson. Boise State will get a prime shock-the-world opportunity Sept. 7 at Oregon, then should be the heavy favorite to repeat as Mountain West Conference champion.

25. USC Trojans

The Trojans’ rebound from last year’s bust will depend heavily upon what has to be an improved defense and whoever replaces star quarterback Caleb Williams. Lincoln Riley fired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, then boldly poached UCLA’s D’Anton Lynn to replace him. Quarterback Miller Moss was sensational in the bowl game in place of Williams, throwing for 372 yards and six touchdowns, but you never know what moves Riley might still have up his sleeve at that position via the portal. USC’s schedule is comically hard, with games against LSU, Michigan, Penn State, Washington and Notre Dame.