Men’s Bracket Watch: Purdue, Houston, UConn and Arizona Take Top Seeds

The Mountain West Conference gets a sixth team in the latest NCAA tournament projection while Gonzaga debuts in the field after beating Kentucky.

With football season officially in the rearview mirror, college basketball is set to take center stage. So where does the NCAA tournament field stand as Selection Sunday inches closer? We’ll get a dose of clarity from the selection committee this Saturday with their initial Top 16 reveal, but until then, we’re left to speculate on how the field of 68 might shake out. After a wild weekend of games that moved some teams closer to a spot in the field and others dangerously close to the cut line, here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s updated bracket projection.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Michigan State Spartans
Nevada Wolf Pack
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Last Four In

Boise State Broncos
New Mexico Lobos
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels

First Four Out

Utah Utes
Cincinnati Bearcats
Seton Hall Pirates
Providence Friars

Next Four Out

Memphis Tigers
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Kansas State Wildcats

One big change this week is a sixth bid for the Mountain West, earned by Nevada’s wins over the Utah State Aggies and San Diego State Aztecs. Things did get more complicated for other Mountain West bubble teams though, namely New Mexico, which slipped quite a bit into the Last Four In after a home loss to the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels. Big picture, six bids feels like it will be a heavy lift for the league, but it’s certainly not out of the question at the moment. Regardless, four bids seems like a virtual lock with a fifth in excellent shape, which would still have to be considered a success overall for the league.

Gonzaga debuts in the field as the last team in after its road win at Kentucky. The Wildcats’ recent struggles do devalue that win somewhat from what it might have been a few weeks ago, but the important thing was giving Gonzaga its first Quad 1 victory of the year. The Bulldogs’ position is tenuous at best at the moment, but there’s at least a path now to Gonzaga getting in without winning the WCC tournament.

Gonzaga forwards Anton Watson and Ben Gregg react after beating Kentucky at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., on Feb. 10, 2024 :: Jordan Prather/USA TODAY Sports

* indicates a projected automatic bid

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 North Carolina Central Eagles*/Merrimack Warriors*
No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 9 Butler Bulldogs
No. 5 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls*
No. 4 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 13 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 6 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels/New Mexico Lobos
No. 3 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 14 Vermont Catamounts*
No. 7 Utah State Aggies* vs. No. 10 Mississippi State Bulldogs
No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders*

Kentucky is officially in free fall, with the Wildcats losers of three straight home games and four of their last six matchups to waste some of the goodwill built up earlier this season. They’re not in immediate danger of falling out of the field, but the heat certainly appears to be on for John Calipari to right the ship quickly. Holding serve at home Tuesday against Ole Miss feels essential, especially considering the Wildcats have three of their next four games after that one on the road.

Bubble teams will be closely watching the AAC tournament as one that could potentially produce a bid-stealer situation. Right now, South Florida leads the league, so the Bulls are penciled in as a No. 12 seed, shrinking the bubble by a spot in the process compared to if the Florida Atlantic Owls won the league tournament. FAU and Memphis are the only two realistic at-large candidates from the league at the moment, so anyone else punching a ticket to the dance would take a spot away from a team on the at-large bubble.

East Region

No. 1 UConn Huskies* vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky Colonels*/Southern Jaguars*
No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats
No. 5 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 Richmond Spiders*
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 11 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles*
No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels* vs. No. 10 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington Eagles*

One of the biggest movers of the week is Clemson, vaulting all the way from a projected No. 9 seed to a projected No. 5 seed. The week was essentially a perfect storm for the Tigers, not only picking up huge road wins at the North Carolina Tar Heels and Syracuse Orange, but also seeing plenty of teams around them lose. Clemson has two elite road wins now at North Carolina and the Alabama Crimson Tide and should be well-positioned for a strong seed on Selection Sunday.

Michigan State’s big win Saturday against Illinois means that, at least for now, the Big Ten team in most immediate danger of missing the NCAA tournament is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have some big wins in league play, but have done all their work at home, with a 1–7 road record. They’d be well-served to win a couple of their remaining road dates (at the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines) to secure their place in the Dance.

South Region

No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Sam Houston State Bearkats*
No. 8 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 9 Washington State Cougars
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs/Boise State Broncos
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide* vs. No. 14 High Point Panthers
No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 10 Michigan State Spartans
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels* vs. No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits*

In a league without as many opportunities for big wins, falling off the No. 1 line feels like a bad omen for North Carolina. The good news is that the Heels will play two more Quad 1 games in the regular season with trips to Virginia and Duke looming. The bad news: North Carolina will need to win at least one and maybe both games to have a realistic shot at the No. 1 line.

Wisconsin’s four-game losing skid hasn’t impacted its projected seeding as much as you might expect. Despite the recent woes, the Badgers are still one of just six teams with 10 or more wins across the top two quadrants, and that’s enough to keep them in protected seed territory despite losses to Michigan and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the last week. They’ll have to right the ship quickly though to avoid a steeper fall down the seed list.

West Region

No. 1 Arizona Wildcats* vs. No. 16 Green Bay Phoenix*
No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 9 Texas Longhorns
No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 12 Appalachian State Mountaineers*
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs*
No. 6 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. No. 11 Indiana State Sycamores*
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks*
No. 7 BYU Cougars vs. No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Quinnipiac Bobcats*

Sweeping the Pac-12’s mountain road trip of Utah and Colorado was the most impressive thing Arizona could accomplish in league play. The result: The Wildcats are now our fourth No. 1 seed. Surviving three overtime periods against Utah was one thing, but then turning around and blowing out Colorado two days later at altitude was the cherry on top. Arizona has some high-level nonconference wins (Alabama, Wisconsin, Michigan State and at Duke) and should be positioned fairly well for the No. 1 line as long as it keeps winning.

Could Marquette make a push toward the No. 1 line? The Golden Eagles have won eight straight and have shot the lights out lately, drilling nearly 47% from distance in their last five games. Big road tests loom this week at Butler and UConn, and beating the Huskies would certainly make a strong impression.