Forde Minutes: Six Pressing Questions for the High-Major Stretch Run

There is much unsettled as the regular season nears an end for the top six leagues while small-conference tournaments begin this week.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball, where the world’s longest bounce pass somehow won a game Saturday:

Six pressing questions for the high-major stretch run

We’re at the end of the regular season, and there is still so much unsettled in the top six leagues. In addition to the start of the Little Dance, this is primed to be a wild week. Let’s ask six pressing questions of the six power conferences:

Question No. 1: Can the SEC produce a five-way tie for first?

It absolutely can, and it’s not even that far-fetched. Currently, the Tennessee Volunteers lead the league at 13–3, followed by the Alabama Crimson Tide and South Carolina Gamecocks at 12–4, then the Kentucky Wildcats and Auburn Tigers at 11–5. Here’s what has to happen to produce a five-car pileup at 13–5, sending SEC officials deep into the tiebreaker rules for league tournament seeding:

Tennessee (1) has to lose twice. While unlikely for what has been the best team in the league so far, its two remaining games are tough: at South Carolina on Wednesday and hosting Kentucky on Saturday. Ken Pomeroy’s metrics put the Vols at a 67% chance to beat the Gamecocks and 79% chance to beat the Wildcats. (If the Vols win both, The Minutes would be about ready to lock in their No. 1 seed along with the Houston Cougars, UConn Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers. The Arizona Wildcats and North Carolina Tar Heels would be on the No. 2 line, pending results next week.)

Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht and the Volunteers have nearly locked in a No. 1 seed in the NCAA men’s tournament.  :: Randy Sartin/USA TODAY Sports

Alabama (2) has to split its two remaining games. Most likely scenario there would be a loss at the Florida Gators on Tuesday (the Gators took the Tide to overtime in Tuscaloosa, Ala.) and a home win over the Arkansas Razorbacks.

South Carolina (3) has to split as well, with a mandatory victory over the Volunteers on Wednesday. (Not out of the question; South Carolina won the earlier meeting in Knoxville, Tenn.) That would then necessitate a loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs on the road—also not out of the question.

Kentucky (4) has to win out. One of those two is a lock (home against the Vanderbilt Commodores on Wednesday) and the other is the hard part (winning at Tennessee). But given the Wildcats’ overall talent and offensive firepower, it would not be a shock.

Auburn (5) also has to win out. That’s highly feasible with a game at the last-place Missouri Tigers on Tuesday and a home finale against the Georgia Bulldogs.

If the five-way tie scenario comes to blessed fruition, it means that a team that can claim part of a league championship wouldn’t even get a bye to the quarterfinals in the SEC tourney. Which would be wild.

As it stands today, here are the five contenders’ records against each other: Tennessee is 4–1, South Carolina and Kentucky are 2–2, Auburn is 2–3 and Alabama is 2–4. (For what it’s worth, The Minutes would also include Florida, the likely No. 6 seed, as a potential SEC tournament champion. The Gators are 2–4 against the top five.)

Question No. 2: Will the Kansas Jayhawks (6) have to play on Wednesday of the Big 12 tournament?

The unthinkable looms for a fan base that is disproportionately proud of the Jayhawks’ eternal conference hegemony: Kansas might be playing on the second day in Kansas City, trying to just make the Thursday quarterfinals and facing a four-games-in-four-days proposition to win the Big 12 tourney.

Last time Kansas finished outside the top four in the league: 2000. There’s a good chance it will happen this season.

The Jayhawks currently are in a three-way tie for fourth with the BYU Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders at 9–7. That’s the most league losses they’ve had since 1983—and they close the regular season with a trip to No. 1 Houston. If those three teams all remained tied for fourth at, say, 10–8, Kansas would drop to the No. 6 seed due to an 0–2 record against the Cougars and Red Raiders, who are 1–1 against each other.

The expanded Big 12 is incredibly deep, but the team that began the season No. 1 in the nation has been a disappointment over the past two months.

Kansas center Hunter Dickinson and the Jayhawks are currently tied for fourth place in the Big 12.  :: Raymond Carlin III/USA TODAY Sports

Question No. 3: What the hell is going on in the ACC after the North Carolina Tar Heels (7) and Duke Blue Devils (8)?

As of Monday, the third-place team in the league is on the bubble and the fourth-place team isn’t even under serious bubble consideration. And there is plenty more sketch behind them.

In third are the Virginia Cavaliers (9), losers of four of their last six games and performing a familiar offensive death spiral. Good thing the Cavaliers are 7–0 in games decided by four points or fewer—most importantly a three-point win over Florida on Nov. 10—or they would be out of the bracket at this point. All nine of their losses are by double digits. They’ve scored fewer than 50 points in four of their last five games.

In fourth are the Syracuse Orange (10), whose only nonconference achievement of note was beating a fringe bubble team, the Oregon Ducks, in Sioux Falls, S.D., in December. Syracuse has an NCAA NET rating of 84 and a 2–7 Quad 1 record. But the Orange have won four straight and could start building a case for themselves with a win Tuesday at the Clemson Tigers.

Speaking of the Tigers: with road wins over Alabama and North Carolina, they’re in the field. But doing things like losing to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at home in January aren’t helping NCAA seeding. If Clemson wants to be a true ACC team player, it will tank against the bubbly Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday. After upsetting Duke—and setting off an infamous court storm—Wake backslid with successive losses to Notre Dame and the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Deacons are 3–11 away from Winston-Salem, N.C., this season.

The struggle is real for the ACC to get five or more NCAA bids, and might require a dark-horse team winning the tournament or at least crashing the final. Given the sprawling middle class of the conference, some chaos next week seems likely.

Question No. 4: How did the Big Ten get this way?

To quote Nate Bargatze, nobody knows. It’s weird out there in the heartland.

Heading into Sunday’s games, the Ohio State Buckeyes (7–11) and Michigan Wolverines (3–15) were the bottom two teams in the league. The last and only time they finished that way: 1951. The entire 14-team league is your basic inverse of the usual football hierarchy, with schools from the (late) Big Ten West occupying the top half of the standings and Big Ten East schools comprising the bottom half. In historical terms, down is up (the Nebraska Cornhuskers are tied for fourth) and up is down (the Indiana Hoosiers are tied for 13th).

Outside of Purdue (11), everyone is vulnerable in what could be a wild conference tourney. Ohio State is getting hot. Indiana is showing signs of life. The Iowa Hawkeyes could be making a backdoor run for an NCAA bid.

How Purdue Men’s Basketball Can Vanquish Past March Disappointments

As far as identifying teams that could make a run in the Big Dance, at present there are two—and even that is a risky number. First, that requires counting on Purdue to reverse its recent March history. The other team, the Illinois Fighting Illini (12), has its own issues. Coach Brad Underwood has taken seven teams to the NCAA tourney and never yet made the Sweet 16. (Illinois’s scant commitment to defense could also be a problem.)

The Northwestern Wildcats have had a great season, but their ceiling is limited by a season-ending injury to guard Ty Berry. Other players are banged up as well. The Wisconsin Badgers have been dreadful since the start of February, losing seven of their last nine. The Michigan State Spartans need to stop their own bleeding, having lost three straight and sliding toward the bubble. Nebraska is a fresh story but unimpressive away from home.

Even if Iowa sneaks in the field, we’ve seen that movie before—and it always ends on the first weekend of the tournament. Last time Iowa went further than that was last century.

It’s also been a staggering 24 years since the last Big Ten national title. And unless Purdue can defeat its own history, that streak is likely to continue.

Question No. 5: Can America’s Team (13) win the last Pac-12 title?

That would be the Washington State Cougars, who are attempting to get the last laugh on a league full of deserters and turncoats. One of two remaining teams in the erstwhile Pac-12, the Cougs have massively exceeded expectations at 23–7 overall, 14–5 in the conference. And their leading scorer, third-year freshman guard Myles Rice, has conquered cancer.

Rice is leading the Cougars in scoring after a remarkable return while undergoing cancer treatments :: James Snook/USA TODAY Sports

They’re still a half-game behind Arizona (14) but would own the tiebreaker after sweeping the two-game series. Which means Wazzu needs to take care of business Thursday at home against the Washington Huskies and get some help from someone in Los Angeles.

That is, admittedly, a lot to ask from the snorkeling duo of the UCLA Bruins (15) and USC Trojans, which are a combined 15–21 in league play. But if one of them can rouse itself for an upset of Arizona while the Cougs beat Washington, Washington State would be co-champions and take the No. 1 seed into the final Pac-12 tournament.

Washington State’s last conference championship: 1941. Washington State’s last conference tournament championship: never. There would be no better final act for the league as a men’s basketball entity than Wazzu taking all the hardware.

Question No. 6: How do we separate teams four through nine in the Big East?

The top three have separated themselves: the UConn Huskies, Marquette Golden Eagles and Creighton Bluejays. And the bottom two are hopeless: the Georgetown Hoyas and DePaul Blue Demons. In between them is a swath of bubble teams scrambling to break free from the pack and secure their Big Dance credentials. They are as follows:

The Seton Hall Pirates (16) currently reside in fourth place at 11–6, with victories over UConn and Marquette. But as tough as this team is, its talent deficit can lead to some ugly results—in recent weeks the Pirates lost by 30 to UConn, 21 to Creighton, 26 to Villanova and 18 to Marquette. When it goes off the rails, there’s no getting it back. Record against the rest of the scrambled six: 6–3. NCAA NET rating: 62. KenPom rating: 60. Remaining games: home vs. Villanova and DePaul.

The Villanova Wildcats (17) are alone in fifth at 10–8, winners of five of their last six, most recently and notably a victory at Providence. (That outcome could, at least for the moment, put the winner on the right side of the bubble and the loser on the wrong side.) ’Nova has gotten a bit of an offensive revival from guard Justin Moore, who has made 14 out of 26 three-point shots in the last five games after a season of struggles. Record against the rest of the scrambled six: 5–4. NCAA NET rating: 26. KenPom rating: 24. Remaining games: at Seton Hall, home vs. Creighton.

The St. John’s Red Storm (18) have won three in a row since Rick Pitino renounced his players, his staff and life in general following a loss to Seton Hall. The Johnnies have climbed back to .500 in the league and onto the bubble, which could create a Masterpiece Theater scenario for Pitino in Madison Square Garden next week. Record against the rest of the scrambled six: 6–4. NCAA NET rating: 39. KenPom rating: 29. Remaining games: at DePaul, home vs. Georgetown.

Pitino has led the Red Storm back onto the NCAA tournament bubble :: Robert Goddin/USA TODAY Sports

The Providence Friars (19) are coming off a rough week, being blown out at Marquette and then losing that critical home game to Villanova to land at 9–9 in the league. Kim English has done a nice job keeping the season afloat since losing Bryce Hopkins in early January, but his team will likely take some major pressure with it to New York next week. Record against the rest of the scrambled six: 4–6. NCAA NET rating: 63. KenPom rating: 59. Remaining games: at Georgetown, home vs. Connecticut.

The Xavier Musketeers (20) have likely slid off the bubble at this point, with a 15–14 record and 9–9 in the league. But there are opportunities to dramatically change that this week and next by earning some quality wins. Record against the rest of the scrambled six: 5–5. NCAA NET rating: 61. KenPom rating: 51. Remaining games: at Butler, home vs. Marquette.

The Butler Bulldogs (21) might have seen their at-large hopes crash and burn over the last three weeks, losing five of six and dropping to 17–13, 8–11. Defensive limitations have been exposed and exploited. If there is any path back into at-large contention, it would require at least three straight wins starting this week and extending into the Big East tourney—one of which might need to be in a matchup with mighty UConn in the quarterfinals. Record against the rest of the scrambled six: 2–7. NCAA NET rating: 68. KenPom rating: 67. Remaining game: home vs. Xavier

The Little Dance

Conference tournaments are here, and now the fun really begins. Elimination basketball is at hand. Afternoon weekday hookeyball is at hand (see you Thursday afternoon).

And for the disingenuous power brokers who want to convince us that the NCAA tournament should expand to give more teams an opportunity, here’s where you’re wrong: Everyone’s opportunity begins here, at the conference tourney level. Every team that is in a conference tournament has a chance to make the NCAAs. Win your way in without asking for more at-large bids.

As always, The Minutes is here to offer a rapid-fire guide to the first week of league tourneys, most of which are at the low-to-mid-major level. But there are some that will have multiple bids, and some that will produce potential giant slayers come the Big Dance. Get to know them now.

Atlantic Sun

When: March 4–10.

Where: Campus sites.

League rank: 26th out of 32.

Minutes fact: The mascots in the league tend to be from the ruling class, with the Eastern Kentucky Colonels, Austin Peay Governors, Queens Royals and Bellarmine Knights. The Stetson Hatters sound a bit highfalutin’ as well.

Tourney motto: We’re not here to guard anyone. (None of the teams in the league rank in the top 200 nationally in defensive efficiency.)

Top seed: Eastern Kentucky (17–13, 12–4). EKU won its first regular-season conference championship since 1979. Fifth-year senior big man Isaiah Cozart had 11 blocked shots in a game earlier this season.

Dark horse (seeded lower than second): The third-seeded Lipscomb Bisons (22) have won seven of their last eight and spanked Eastern Kentucky to end the regular season.

Minutes Pick: Lipscomb.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: Nah.

Sun Belt

When: March 5–11.

Where: Pensacola, Fla.

League rank: 17th out of 32.

Minutes fact: Only once in the last six tourneys has the regular-season champion won the automatic bid (Georgia State Panthers in 2019).

Tourney motto: Give us two bids! With two teams in the top 70 in the NET, the Sun Belt runner-up should absolutely get at-large consideration if they both advance to the championship game.

Top seed: Appalachian State (26–5, 16–2). The Mountaineers beat Auburn in nonconference play and swept their primary league competition, James Madison.

Dark horse (seeded lower than second): The fourth-seeded Arkansas State Red Wolves won six of their last seven games, losing to only App State.

Minutes Pick: James Madison Dukes (23). They stunned Michigan State to open the season in East Lansing, Mich., started 14–0, and enter this tourney on a 10-game winning streak. They’re 28–3, for the love of Lefty Driesell. Hard to imagine App State can beat the Dukes three times in one season.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: Absolutely.

Horizon League

When: March 5–12.

Where: Campus sites for early rounds, then Indianapolis.

League rank: 20th out of 32.

Minutes fact: The Northern Kentucky Norse and Wright State Raiders have won six of the last seven Horizon tourneys, but one of the two will be out Thursday when they meet in the quarterfinals.

Tourney motto: Check back Thursday. The Horizon has three of the worst teams in the country in the Detroit Mercy Titans, IUPUI Jaguars and Robert Morris Colonials (combined record of 17–76). After they’ve been removed Tuesday, the rest of the tourney should be quite good.

Top seed: Oakland Grizzlies (20–11, 15–5). Veteran coach Greg Kampe has one of his better teams in recent years. He’s taken Oakland to the NCAAs three times, but the last appearance was in 2011.

Dark horse (seeded lower than second): Fourth seed Wright State lost the athletes to play defense but has offensive skill in spades. The Raiders could shoot their way into a third bid under Scott Nagy.

Minutes Pick: Youngstown State Penguins (24). Time for the March of the Penguins to their first Division I NCAA tournament. Jerrod Calhoun grabbed a bunch of key contributors out of the portal and increased playing time for 7’ 3” freshman center Gabe Dynes late in the season. They’re primed to get the bid that eluded them last year.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: Don’t get your hopes up.

Patriot League

When: March 5–13.

Where: Campus sites.

League rank: 30th out of 32.

Minutes fact: The Colgate Raiders have won nine straight Patriot League tourney games by an average margin of 18.8 points.

Tourney motto: The Colgate Invitational. See above.

Top seed: Colgate (22–9, 16–2). The Raiders have zero transfers among their top 10 players, with two fifth-year seniors and a true senior in the starting lineup.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): The sixth-seeded Lehigh Mountain Hawks pieced together a late five-game winning streak, then lost their last two games to top seeds Colgate and the Boston University Terriers by a total of five points.

Minutes Pick: Colgate (25). Four out of five dentists recommend Matt Langel’s juggernaut.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: If Colgate can draw a first-round matchup that isn’t a complete athletic mismatch, you never know.

Ohio Valley

When: March 6–9.

Where: Evansville, Ind.

League rank: 28th out of 32.

Minutes fact: Last year’s champion, the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks, lost 22 games and did not even make the eight-team field this year.

Tourney motto: Two games to the Promised Land. The top two seeds in the OVC draw double byes to the semifinals, requiring them to win only two games to earn the automatic bid.

Top seed: Little Rock Trojans (20–11, 14–4). A closing nine-game winning streak earned Little Rock part of a three-way tie for the title and No. 1 seed via tiebreaker.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): Morehead State Eagles. They were tri-champions but relegated to the third seed via tiebreakers. They are the highest-rated OVC team in the KenPom ratings by far.

Minutes Pick: Morehead State (26). Division II transfer Riley Minix has been the best player in the conference and brings a streak of nine straight double doubles to postseason play.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: Not likely. Realignment has diminished the strength of the OVC.

Big South

When: March 6–10.

Where: High Point, N.C.

League rank: 18th out of 32.

Minutes fact: This is the highest the Big South has been rated in KenPom’s quarter century of predictive metrics.

Tourney motto: Fun, but not crazy. This has been one of the most formful tourneys in recent years, with the regular-season champion winning the tournament four straight years.

Top seed: High Point Panthers (24–7, 13–3). They’re offensively proficient but defensively a bit wobbly. High Point started league play 9–0 but finished with three losses in its last seven games.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): The third-seeded Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs have won 11 of their last 14 games, and coach Tim Craft has won this tournament before.

Minutes Pick: Gardner-Webb (27). The Bulldogs have found their shooting range in conference play. Take the hot team in what could be a wide-open tourney.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: Don’t rule it out, but don’t empty your bank account on it.

Northeast

When: March 6–12.

Where: Campus sites.

League rank: 32nd out of 32.

Minutes fact: Once again, the NEC is inviting a team that could win the title and still not get to advance to the Big Dance. Last year that was the Merrimack Warriors, transitioning from Division II to D-I. This year, it’s the fourth-seeded Le Moyne Dolphins.

Tourney motto: Our second-best team can beat your No. 1 seed. In honor of tourney runner-up, the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights’ shocking win over Purdue last March.

Top seed: Central Connecticut Blue Devils (19–10, 13–3). From hard-hittin’ New Britain, CCSU is striving for its first NCAA bid since 2007.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): The third-seeded Sacred Heart Pioneers won four of their last five, including an upset of Merrimack on Saturday that rearranged the top two seeds for the tournament.

Minutes Pick: Merrimack (28). After watching an FDU team it defeated make history, Merrimack has ample motivation—and defense—to earn the bid this time.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: After what happened last year, do you want to tell them no?

West Coast

When: March 7–12.

Where: Las Vegas.

League rank: 11th out of 32.

Minutes fact: The Gonzaga Bulldogs (12 times) and Saint Mary’s Gaels (three) have won the last 15 WCC tourneys. Last team other than those two to earn the automatic bid? The San Diego Toreros in 2008, who then went on to stun UConn in the NCAAs.

Tourney motto: The best warmup act in Vegas. After this tourney ends, three others crank up in the city—the Pac-12, Mountain West and WAC.

Top seed: Saint Mary’s (24–7, 15–1). Its bid to be the only undefeated conference champion was spoiled by Gonzaga on Saturday night, but the Gaels still had a season worthy of solid NCAA seeding.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): The third-seeded San Francisco Dons are the hard-trying third wheel in a two-team drama. They’re 0–4 against the Gaels and Zags, 11–1 against everyone else in the league.

Minutes Pick: Gonzaga (29). The Bulldogs have come roaring off the bubble to resemble their usual selves down the stretch, carrying an eight-game winning streak to Vegas. Transfer big man Graham Ike has become a monster, with four veterans and two freshmen stepping up as well. Look out, once again, for the Zags.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: There would be nothing shocking about Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, and Saint Mary’s has that potential as well depending on the draw.

Missouri Valley

When: March 7–10.

Where: St. Louis.

League rank: 10th out of 32.

Minutes fact: In a conference that has experienced plenty of turnover, the top four teams (the Indiana State Sycamores, Drake Bulldogs, Bradley Braves and Northern Iowa Panthers) all have been Valley members since at least 1991.

Tourney motto: This is a multi-bid league. Much like the Sun Belt, the Valley should get strong consideration for two teams in the NCAAs if both Indiana State and Drake advance to the final.

Top seed: Indiana State (26–5, 17–3). The national leaders in effective field goal percentage play a fast, fun and fearless offensive style that is worth watching, if you haven’t caught them yet this season—especially position-less big man Robbie Avila (aka “College Jokić” or “Cream Abdul-Jabbar”).

Dark horse: Third seed Bradley has won 21 games and pushed Indiana State to the brink in Terre Haute, Ind., before losing a classic game in overtime.

Minutes Pick: Indiana State (30). After winning its first Valley title since 2000 and its most games since the Larry Bird days in 1979, this feels destined to happen.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: If the matchup(s) are decent, the Valley will win games. Book it.

Southern

When: March 8–11.

Where: Asheville, N.C.

League rank: 12th out of 32.

Minutes fact: Stephen Curry played in the SoCon tournament. So did Jerry West. (The Minutes was there to see Steph as a skinny Davidson Wildcats freshman. The Minutes was not there to see The Logo.)

Tourney motto: We go way back. The first SoCon tournament was held in 1922. Among the schools that have won it: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Alabama, George Washington, West Virginia and Washington & Lee.

Top seed: Samford Bulldogs (26–5, 15–3). In their fourth season under former high school coach—and former high-dollar poker sharpie—Bucky McMillan, they’ve broken through and dominated the league. Samford is all about tempo and aggressiveness.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): The fourth-seeded Western Carolina Catamounts beat Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and a loaded McNeese State Cowboys this season. They won’t be intimidated in Asheville, N.C.

Minutes Pick: Western Carolina (31). Samford hasn’t been a great tournament team the past couple of seasons, so it’s time to look for an upset special.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: It’s happened before out of this league—as recently as last year, sorry Virginia—and the SoCon’s overall strength is as high as it’s been in years.

Coastal Athletic Association

When: March 8–12.

Where: Washington, D.C.

League rank: 19th out of 32.

Minutes fact: The CAA twice this century has had a team that didn’t win its tournament make the Final Four—the George Mason Patriots in 2006 and VCU Rams in ’11. There won’t be an at-large candidate this year.

Tourney motto: The dartboard tourney. With seven different champions in the last seven years, close your eyes and fire.

Top seed: Charleston Cougars (24–7, 15–3). This is a typical Pat Kelsey production, with a cast of thousands culled from a variety of locales playing art and launching threes.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): Fourth seed UNC Wilmington Seahawks. They lost a heartbreaker in the final to Charleston last year and have come back stronger with the same core of players.

Minutes Pick: UNC Wilmington (32). If you can win in Rupp Arena, which the Seahawks did in November, you can win this tournament. In Trazarien White we trust.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: A chance, to be sure. Matchup dependent.

Summit League

When: March 8–12.

Where: Sioux Falls, S.D.

League rank: 23rd out of 32.

Minutes fact: The Summit is the only conference in which every member has won at least 10 games but nobody has won 20.

Tourney motto: Dakota driven. Either the South Dakota State Jackrabbits or North Dakota State Bison have won 10 of the last 12 tournaments.

Top seed: South Dakota State (19–12, 12–4). In a transfer-portal world, the top seven Jackrabbits have never been anything but Jackrabbits in college.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): The fourth seed St. Thomas Tommies. They lost two close games to South Dakota State and swept No. 2 seed Kansas City.

Minutes Pick: Kansas City Kangaroos (33). They put it together late, winning their final six games. Coach Marvin Menzies took the New Mexico State Aggies to the tourney five times between 2010 and ’15.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: Look elsewhere for Cinderella.

Big Sky

When: March 9–13.

Where: Boise, Idaho.

League rank: 22nd out of 32.

Minutes fact: For the past 14 tourneys, a Montana school or the Weber State Wildcats—and sometimes both—have made the final. The power trio has won nine titles in that time: five by the Montana Grizzlies, two by the Montana State Bobcats and two by Weber State.

Tourney motto: Tightly bunched. Entering the final night of regular-season games Monday, the top three teams in the league are all 20–10.

Top seed: Eastern Washington Eagles (20–10, 14–3). The fast-paced Eagles are probably either scoring or turning it over—their 57.2% effective field goal rate is sixth in the nation and their 18.9% turnover rate is 296th.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): Seeding won’t be finalized until a three-way logjam for second at 11–6 is cleared up Monday night.

Minutes Pick: Weber State (34). The Wildcats have the only Quad 1 win in the league, beating Saint Mary’s on the road in November. They were achingly close to making the final and probably winning it each of the last two seasons, losing to eventual champion Montana State in taut semifinal games both times. They’re back and hungry.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: Don’t wait up for it.

Southland

When: March 10–13.

Where: Lake Charles, La.

League rank: 27th out of 32.

Minutes fact: Texas schools have won the past five Southland tourneys, eight of the last nine and 14 of the last 16. But the top seed hails from Louisiana.

Tourney motto: McNeese and the rest. The Cowboys have been much the best all season.

Top seed: McNeese State (26–3, 15–1). TCU Horned Frogs transfer guard Shahada Wells is averaging 17.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.9 steals.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): Seeding is not yet finalized, but the Nicholls State Colonels have won eight of their last 11.

Minutes Pick: McNeese State (35). Talent wins out. Then we’ll see whether Will Wade is going to stick around or be one-and-done at the school that gave him another chance.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: McNeese could make a strong-ass run at someone from a power conference.

America East

When: March 9–16.

Where: Campus sites.

League rank: 21st out of 32.

Minutes fact: Three of the seven highest-tempo teams in the nation are in the America East—the Bryant Bulldogs, Albany Great Danes and UMBC Retrievers. The Vermont Catamounts, however, are the 12th slowest in the nation.

Tourney motto: Vermont’s to win or lose. The Catamounts have won eight straight regular-season titles and been to four of the last six Big Dances.

Top seed: Vermont (24–6, 14–1). It’s a typical John Becker production, with diligent defense, crisp passing and plenty of threes.

Dark horse (outside the top two seeds): UMBC. At 11–19, this would be a deep sleeper. But UMBC has won four of its last five games to garner some momentum and confidence.

Minutes Pick: Vermont (36). The Catamounts have lost once since before Christmas, by two points, to a team that isn’t in the tourney field. Seems like a safe play.

Chance to shock the world in the Big Dance: Don’t get your hopes up.

Minutes crush of the week

Jamal Shead (37), Houston. The bulldog point guard is an extension of Kelvin Sampson on the court. He elevated his game for Big 12 play, then has taken it up yet another notch during the Cougars’ current eight-game winning streak (16.4 points, 6.8 assists, 2.9 steals during that time, plus the usual vicious defense). Shead’s would-be game-winner from about 28 feet at the Baylor Bears on Feb. 24 came off his fingertips just after the buzzer, but he got off the shot in time to beat Oklahoma Sooners at the buzzer a week later. He’s a winner to his core.

Shead hit a buzzer beater against Oklahoma on Saturday :: Alonzo Adams/USA TODAY Sports

Coach who earned his comp car this week

Adrian Autry (38), Syracuse. In his first season taking over for legendary Jim Boeheim, “Red” has the Orange on a four-game winning streak that has improved their ACC record to 11–8. That’s the most wins for Syracuse in ACC play since its first season in the league in 2014. (Which also says that it was time for a coaching change.)

Coach who should take the bus to work

Jerod Haase (39), Stanford Cardinal. Even at a school that is hardly win-at-all-costs, it’s time for a change. Haase is 12–17 and on a six-game losing streak, well on his way to missing the NCAA tournament for the eighth time in eight seasons on The Farm. That’s despite recruiting extraordinarily well. Next.

Buzzer beater

The Minutes kept it local this past week, but capitalized on some false spring weather to indulge in a Storyteller IPA on the outdoor patio at TEN20 Brewery (40). Give them a try when in Louisville and thank The Minutes later.