Men’s Bracket Watch: Five Games With True Bubble Implications on Tap Wednesday

Villanova, New Mexico and Providence could be eliminated from NCAA tournament consideration with a bad loss in their respective matchups.

Welcome to Selection Sunday week! Sports Illustrated will be publishing daily updates of its projected men’s NCAA tournament field to keep you up to date on where things stand heading into the selection show. So as automatic bids get locked up, bubble teams fight for their seat at the table and top teams compete for seeding, keep an eye out for all of the latest updates from SI.

Most of the eventful action Tuesday centered around smaller conference tournaments wrapping up. A few Cinderella runs came to an end, but No. 6 seed Wagner did claim the NEC crown, meaning the Seahawks will go dancing despite a NET near No. 300. We also welcomed top seeds Oakland, Charleston and South Dakota State to the party, as well as Saint Mary’s in the WCC.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes:

Seton Hall Pirates
Michigan State Spartans
TCU Horned Frogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Last Four In:

Virginia Cavaliers
St. John's Red Storm
Colorado Buffaloes
New Mexico Lobos

First Four Out:

Indiana State Sycamores
Texas A&M Aggies
Villanova Wildcats
Providence Friars

Next Four Out:

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Pittsburgh Panthers
Kansas State Wildcats
Iowa Hawkeyes

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Key bubble games Wednesday:

• Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 2:30 p.m. ET
• Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs, 3 p.m. ET
• Providence Friars vs. Georgetown Hoyas, 6:30 p.m. ET
• New Mexico Lobos vs. Air Force Falcons, 7 p.m. ET
• Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns, 7 p.m. ET
• Utah Utes vs. Arizona State Sun Devils, 11:30 p.m. ET

With the exception of the Oklahoma vs. TCU game, all of these matchups can be considered elimination games from a bubble standpoint. Every other team is currently out of the projected field and would either be eliminated by taking a bad loss (Villanova, New Mexico, Providence) or by running out of opportunities to improve their résumés (Kansas State, Utah).

Villanova forward Eric Dixon and the Wildcats need a win on Wednesday to stay in the hunt for an NCAA tournament bid :: Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma and TCU will both likely stay in the field regardless of the result Wednesday, but the loser will be sweating. TCU’s résumé, in particular, feels weak when given appropriate scrutiny, with the Horned Frogs just 7–11 in games against the top two quadrants after playing a very poor nonconference strength of schedule. We’ll see how far wins over Houston and at Baylor can take them. As for OU, the Sooners are a slightly better 9–11 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but that number hides the fact the Sooners have beaten only two projected at-large teams this season. A trip to Dayton may be in the cards for the loser.

Automatic bids determined Wednesday:

• Southland: No. 1 McNeese State Cowboys vs. No. 3 Nicholls Colonels, 5 p.m. ET
• Patriot: No. 1 Colgate Raiders vs. No. 6 Lehigh Mountain Hawks, 7 p.m. ET
• Big Sky: No. 3 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 5 Montana State Bobcats, 11:30 p.m. ET

** indicates clinched automatic bid
* indicates projected automatic bid

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 Wagner Seahawks**/Grambling Tigers*
No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
No. 5 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs**
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 Vermont Catamounts*
No. 7 Utah State Aggies* vs. No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders*

For all intents and purposes, consider Purdue locked into the No. 1 overall seed, regardless of what happens in the Big Ten tournament. The Boilermakers’ résumé is insanely deep, boasting wins over Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Alabama and Gonzaga, plus sweeps of Illinois and Wisconsin. Either way, each of the consensus top three teams (Purdue, UConn and Houston) have different preferred regional paths, so the impact of who lands where on the seed list is somewhat minimal.

East Region

No. 1 UConn Huskies* vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac Bobcats*
No. 8 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 5 BYU Cougars vs. No. 12 Richmond Spiders*
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 Charleston Cougars**
No. 6 Saint Mary’s Gaels** vs. No. 11 James Madison Dukes**
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Toledo Rockets*
No. 7 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 10 Michigan State Spartans
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits**

Kentucky now has two monster road wins after winning at Tennessee over the weekend. That pushed John Calipari’s team to the top end of the No. 3 line. A nice SEC tournament showing could easily elevate the Wildcats to a No. 2 seed, especially if Marquette or Iowa State lose early in conference tournament play.

Saint Mary’s moves up from the No. 7 line to the No. 6 line with its win over Gonzaga in the WCC title game. That completes a remarkable turnaround for the Gaels, who were in deep trouble in nonconference play after losses to the Weber State Wildcats and Missouri State Bears.

South Region

No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Longwood Lancers**
No. 8 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls*
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs**
No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 11 Colorado Buffaloes/New Mexico Lobos
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles**
No. 7 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 10 Mississippi State Bulldogs
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels* vs. No. 15 Sam Houston State BearKats*

North Carolina is right on the cusp of the last No. 1 seed, and winning the ACC tournament would make a strong case. The Tar Heels won’t play until Thursday, but could get two, or even three, Quad 1 games this week depending on how the bracket shakes out. Given the Heels were ranked favorably in the committee’s top 16 reveal in February, it wouldn’t take a ton for us to flip them up to the No. 1 line in our projections.

West Region

No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers* vs. No. 16 Stetson Hatters**/Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 5 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 12 Princeton Tigers*
No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 6 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers/St. John’s Red Storm
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies**
No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 10 Seton Hall Pirates
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats* vs. No. 15 Montana Grizzlies*

Oakland punched its ticket to the Big Dance on Tuesday night, beating the Milwaukee Panthers in the Horizon League title game. It’s the first trip for Oakland since 2011 and quite the accomplishment for coach Greg Kampe, who has been with the program for 40 years. Many will be salivating over the chance to play Kansas in the first round given the Jayhawks’ injury concerns (Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. are sitting out the Big 12 tournament), and Oakland did play competitive games against multiple high-majors this season, including a win at the Xavier Musketeers.