Men’s Bracket Watch: Kentucky, Tennessee Upsets Give Bubble Teams Hope

Texas A&M toppled the Wildcats, while Mississippi State took out the Volunteers, making things interesting for the SEC.

Welcome to Selection Sunday week! Sports Illustrated will be publishing daily updates of its projected men’s NCAA tournament field to keep you up to date on where things stand heading into the selection show. So as automatic bids get locked up, bubble teams fight for their seat at the table and top teams compete for seeding, keep an eye out for all of the latest updates from SI.

Friday’s action did help sort out some of the key decisions the committee faces as it finalizes the field of 68, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty as bubble teams keep winning. Some notes to zoom in on from all the action:

Mississippi State stunned Tennessee, securing a 73–56 win to advance to the SEC semifinals :: Denny Simmons /The Tennessean/USA TODAY NETWORK

• It was a great bubble day for the SEC, with Texas A&M and Mississippi State securing monster wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, respectively, to gain some breathing room with the committee. Texas A&M’s résumé is still very bizarre thanks to its five Quad 3 losses, but at this point, I believe the good outweighs the bad.
• New Mexico keeps adding to its résumé, stacking a second Quad 1 win this week by beating Colorado State to advance to the Mountain West title game. That should be enough to put the Lobos into the Dance, with the worst case a trip to Dayton. The Lobos can remove any lingering doubt by winning the Mountain West’s automatic bid Saturday.
• It’s a similar story for Colorado, which beat Washington State on Friday. That may not quite be an elite win, but it does bolster a Buffaloes résumé that was lacking at the top. Colorado should feel good about where it stands regardless but could avoid any speculation about a trip to Dayton with a Pac-12 title win over Oregon.
• All this positivity was bad news for the Big East bubble. Seton Hall’s hopes, after once seeming like a near-lock, are now very dicey, with the Pirates leaning on their win over UConn in December to try to stay in the field. St. John’s played well against UConn Friday in the Big East semifinals, but there isn’t a ton of substance in the Red Storm’s 20 wins. Providence, meanwhile, is in rare company among bubble teams with six Quad 1 wins and no bad losses, but the Friars are still right on the bubble and could well get left out. It’s hard to believe all three could get left out, but one or maybe even two is certainly possible.
• If the committee was looking for a reason to leave out Virginia, the Cavaliers opened the door by collapsing late against against NC State. The résumé metrics still love Virginia, but UVA doesn’t exactly pass the eye test and lacks top-end wins.

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On the Bubble

Last Four Byes:

Michigan State Spartans
TCU Horned Frogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Texas A&M Aggies

Last Four In:

New Mexico Lobos
St. John’s Red Storm
Oklahoma Sooners
Virginia Cavaliers

First Four Out:

Seton Hall Pirates
Providence Friars
Indiana State Sycamores
Pittsburgh Panthers

Next Four Out:

Villanova Wildcats
Oregon Ducks
Ohio State Buckeyes
Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Automatic Bids Clinched Saturday:

• America East: No. 1 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 2 UMass Lowell River Hawks, 11 a.m. ET
• MEAC: No. 4 Howard Bison vs. No. 6 Delaware State Hornets, 1 p.m. ET
• Big 12: No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones, 6 p.m. ET
• Mountain West: No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 6 New Mexico Lobos, 6 p.m. ET
• Big East: No. 1 UConn Huskies vs. No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles, 6:30 p.m. ET
• MAAC: No. 2 Fairfield Stags vs. No. 5 Saint Peter’s Peacocks, 7:30 p.m. ET
• MAC: No. 2 Akron Zips vs. No. 8 Kent State Golden Flashes, 7:30 p.m. ET
• ACC: No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 10 NC State Wolfpack, 8:30 p.m. ET
• C-USA: No. 3 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. No. 5 UTEP Miners, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Pac-12: No. 3 Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 4 Oregon Ducks, 9 p.m. ET
• SWAC: No. 1 Grambling Tigers vs. No. 3 Texas Southern Tigers, 9:30 p.m. ET
• Big West: No. 2 UC Davis Aggies vs. No. 4 Long Beach State Beach, 9:30 p.m. ET
• WAC: No. 1 Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. No. 3 UT Arlington Mavericks, 11:30 p.m. ET

Potential Bid-Stealers:

• American: South Florida, UAB, Temple
• ACC: NC State
• Pac-12: Oregon

Any of these teams winning their respective conference tournaments would shrink the at-large pool by a spot. In the American, a second bid is already being accounted for in these projections since South Florida is the No. 1 seed in the league’s conference tournament. FAU winning the AAC title would add a bid to the mix. Oregon upsetting Arizona and NC State toppling Virginia have created potential headaches for bubble teams. Those championship games will be closely watched to see if either league produces a bid thief.

Key Bubble Games Saturday:

• Texas A&M Aggies vs. Florida Gators, 3:30 p.m. ET
• New Mexico Lobos vs. Colorado State Rams, 6 p.m. ET
• Colorado Buffaloes vs. Oregon Ducks, 9 p.m. ET

** indicates clinched automatic bid
* indicates projected automatic bid

Oregon advances to the Pac-12 title game after defeating Arizona 67–59 :: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 Howard Bison*/Wagner Seahawks**
No. 8 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
No. 5 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 12 VCU Rams*
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 College of Charleston Cougars**
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 James Madison Dukes**
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies**
No. 7 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 10 Mississippi State Bulldogs*
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Fairfield Stags*

East Region

No. 1 UConn Huskies* vs. No. 16 Longwood Lancers**
No. 8 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 9 Michigan State
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 Princeton Tigers*
No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 13 Vermont Catamounts*
No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 St. John’s Red Storm/New Mexico Lobos
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 14 Akron Zips*
No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes*
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits**

South Region

No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Stetson Hatters**
No. 8 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 4 BYU Cougars vs. No. 13 McNeese Cowboys**
No. 6 Saint Mary’s Gaels** vs. No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers/Oklahoma Sooners
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Colgate Raiders**
No. 7 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers*

West Region

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels* vs. No. 16 Grambling Tigers*/Montana State Bobcats**
No. 8 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls*
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs**
No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs**
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles**
No. 7 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 15 UC Davis Aggies*