East Region Breakdown: Auburn Could Stand in UConn’s Way of a Repeat National Championship

Illinois got the toughest draw in a region that features four conference tournament champions.

March Madness is upon us, and the release of Sunday’s 2024 men’s NCAA tournament field of 68 means it’s time to start analyzing seedings, matchups and potential Cinderellas.

In the East, the defending champion UConn Huskies have quite the gauntlet to get through to get back to the Final Four. Conference tournament champions from the Big 12 (Iowa State Cyclones), Big Ten (Illinois Fighting Illini) and SEC (Auburn Tigers) all land in the Big East’s champion Huskies’ region.

Who will make it out of Boston and punch a ticket to Phoenix? Here’s our East Region preview and prediction.

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State of the No. 1 seed: UConn Huskies

The defending national champion Huskies seem like the best-positioned team to repeat since Florida in 2007. UConn enters the field as the top overall seed after a 31–3 regular season, one that featured Big East regular-season and tournament championships. And the Huskies seem to be playing their best basketball at the right time, with just one loss since the start of ’24. UConn’s finally healthy after Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle and even Alex Karaban dealt with injuries earlier in the season, and a recent surge has pushed the Huskies to the nation’s top offensive efficiency mark on KenPom.

What’s the recipe to take them down? The Creighton Bluejays’ win in mid-February probably provides the best blueprint. The Bluejays ran the Huskies off the three-point line to force them to settle for tough twos, and offensively Creighton knocked down 14 threes to ignite a home crowd. That’s not an easy feat, especially with UConn likely to have a strong crowd edge until Phoenix, but there’s a reason it has been so hard to repeat as champs: Six straight single-elimination wins two years in a row is a ridiculous task.

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Toughest draw: No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois won the Big Ten tournament Sunday afternoon, but the road in front of the Illini is a very difficult one. The opening matchup against the Morehead State Eagles could be a tricky one given Morehead’s size and experience, but even if the Illini advance past that game, the road to the Final Four is brutal. A potential second-round date with the BYU Cougars, No. 16 in KenPom’s national rankings is quite a tricky matchup, too, and then surging Iowa State may well loom in the Sweet 16. Survive that, and Illinois might get rewarded by facing the overall No. 1 seed in UConn. The program’s path to its first Final Four since 2005 is not an easy one.

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Team that could bust your bracket: No. 4 Auburn Tigers

UConn will be a very popular pick to win it all, but a matchup with Auburn in the Sweet 16 would be a whale of a game. Predictive metrics like KenPom have loved the Tigers all season, ranking them as the fourth-best team in the country despite landing on the No. 4 seed line. Sound familiar? Last season’s UConn also entered the Big Dance as a No. 4 seed but fourth nationally on KenPom. If they can get out of Spokane, the Tigers might be off to the races.

Auburn coach Bruce Pearl and the Tigers are most likely to bust your bracket in the East Region :: Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports

Player to watch: Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State Cyclones

Lipsey is among the most underappreciated stars in the country, an elite floor general who has powered the Cyclones to one of their best seasons in program history. For Iowa State to make a run through this grinder of a region, it will need elite play from its point guard on both ends of the floor.

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Most intriguing matchup: Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Northwestern Wildcats

There’s plenty of juice attached to this 8-vs.-9 game, with last year’s Cinderella in FAU taking on a Northwestern team that features one of the best point guards in college basketball in Boo Buie. FAU has delivered in its biggest games this season but has had some untimely slipups against weaker competition. How will the Owls handle being the hunted rather than the hunter this March?

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Regional finalists: Auburn vs. Iowa State

Repeating in the Big Dance is an incredibly difficult task for a reason. UConn may be everyone’s popular choice, but Auburn will pull off an upset in the Sweet 16 from the No. 4 line, despite playing what will essentially be a road game in Boston. They’ll face Iowa State in the Elite Eight, mostly because the Cyclones’ path to the second weekend is easier than that of Illinois.

Pick to win the region: Auburn

The Tigers have passed the eye test all season long. Now, they’re playing their best basketball at the right time. Bruce Pearl’s team gets back to the Final Four for the second time in five years.