Men’s Bracket Watch: Final Projections Ahead of Selection Sunday

Bid stealers and chaos were the theme of championship week, making the selection committee’s decisions incredibly challenging this year.

Happy Selection Sunday! We’re just a few hours away from the selection committee officially revealing which 68 men’s teams are going dancing. It’s hard to remember a championship week with more chaos than this one produced, from Oregon and NC State going on remarkable runs to steal bids to bubble teams adding big wins, all making the job for this year’s committee incredibly challenging. That means there’s plenty more uncertainty of who will actually get in and who might get left out than usual.

Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s final projected field:

Last Four Byes

Colorado State Rams
Texas A&M Aggies
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Florida Atlantic Owls

Last Four In

TCU Horned Frogs
Michigan State Spartans
Seton Hall Pirates
Colorado Buffaloes

First Four Out

Oklahoma Sooners
St. John's Red Storm
Providence Friars
Virginia Cavaliers

Next Four Out

Indiana State Sycamores
Pittsburgh Panthers
Ohio State Buckeyes
Kansas State Wildcats

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These cut line decisions got incredibly difficult given the bid stealers in the ACC and Pac-12 that emerged Saturday night. There’s a world now where the Big East could get only three bids into the Big Dance, which would feel wrong given how strong the league was this season. There’s likely room for only one or two of Seton Hall, St. John’s and Providence, each of whom have worthy cases to be in the NCAA tournament. After much deliberation, Seton Hall is our choice thanks to the team’s win over UConn and strong performance in Big East play.

Could Florida Atlantic guard Johnell Davis and the Owls miss out on an NCAA tournament bid? :: Chris Jones/USA TODAY Sports

Could Florida Atlantic or Michigan State miss out as a result of the chaos? As of now, expect both teams to get in, but things could get interesting for each. FAU has three terrible losses to Temple, Florida Gulf Coast and Bryant, and that could send the Owls to Dayton despite a winning record against the top two quadrants. Michigan State has stayed just above the bubble fray for much of the season, but with the bubble shrinking, MSU’s 19–14 record and middling mark against the top two quadrants comes more into focus.

Coming into the week, Indiana State seemed to have a 50-50 shot of getting in, and that might have been underselling it. But sitting at home during a wild week for bubble teams makes the Sycamores’ tournament hopes a long shot. The four total bid stealers is a brutal development, as is a team like New Mexico winning its automatic bid to take it out of the committee’s hands. Plus, Mississippi State and Texas A&M, who could’ve been left out, won huge games to solidify their standing, and even other teams that might miss out like Providence improved their résumé. I’ll be surprised, though not shocked, if the Sycamores get in.

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** indicates clinched automatic bid
* indicates projected automatic bid

East Region

No. 1 UConn Huskies** vs. No. 16 Saint Peter’s Peacocks**
No. 8 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats
No. 5 BYU Cougars vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys**
No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 13 Charleston Cougars**
No. 6 Saint Mary’s Gaels** vs. No. 11 NC State**
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 Akron Zips**
No. 7 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 10 Florida Atlantic Owls
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits**

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 Wagner Seahawks**/Grambling Tigers**
No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies
No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes**
No. 4 Auburn Tigers** vs. No. 13 Oakland Golden Grizzlies**
No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks**
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Vermont Catamounts**
No. 7 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 10 Seton Hall Pirates/Colorado Buffaloes
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones** vs. No. 15 Longwood Lancers**

South Region

No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 16 Stetson Hatters**
No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 9 New Mexico Lobos**
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 Duquesne Dukes**
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 UAB Blazers*
No. 6 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 11 James Madison Dukes**
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Colgate Raiders**
No. 7 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs/Michigan State Spartans
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers**

Note: If UAB loses to Temple in the AAC championship game late this afternoon, the Owls replace the Blazers in the field. Temple would likely come in as a No. 14 or No. 15 seed based on résumé alone, though the committee has been known to do a like-for-like swap, so it’s possible that Temple could land as a No. 13.

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West Region

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 16 Montana State Bobcats**/Howard Bison**
No. 8 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 9 Colorado State Rams
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 Yale Bulldogs**
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs**
No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs**
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini* vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles**
No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 10 Mississippi State Bulldogs
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 15 Long Beach State Beach**