The Extra Point: What Stands in Alabama’s Path to the CFP

Alabama is currently ranked No.10 in the CFP Rankings. What stands in its path to the playoffs?

Jalen Milroe in the 2024 CFP. / AP Photo / Kyusung Gong

Alabama was ranked No. 10 on Tuesday, in the second College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season. In this sport, chaos can ensue during any given game. With not much wiggle room by being ranked 10th, there are definitely some scenarios that Alabama hopes not to see, in order to see itself make the playoffs come December. As of right now the Crimson Tide is sitting in a good spot, but if one or multiple of these scenarios plays out, then Alabama might be a little worried on selection Sunday.

Alabama needs to win out. That is first and foremost. Winning out, however, is not a guarantee that the Crimson Tide will make it. There are some very realistic external scenarios where Alabama does not qualify for the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. If Alabama wins out, it certainly begs the question: Is it even worth it to make the conference championship game, anyway? With it being the first year of a 12-team playoff, it is still to be determined what the committee will do with the losers of conference championship games.

If Tennessee wins out and all other expected favorites win, then Tennessee will most likely face the winner of Texas and Texas A&M in Atlanta. If Georgia wins, and all other expected favorites win out, it actually comes down to Missouri’s performances in its final three games to determine who would face the winner of the lone star showdown. If Missouri wins AT LEAST two of its next three games or beats Arkansas solely, in this scenario, Alabama would be traveling to Atlanta. If the Tigers fail to win two of the three, including the Arkansas game, then in this same scenario, LSU would actually be heading to Atlanta to face one of the teams from Texas. If LSU miraculously wins the SEC, they are in the playoffs and would be stealing a spot from an at large team vying for a spot. (This would be the case assuming LSU stays ranked ahead of Army, who is currently on track to win the AAC)

SEC aside, with auto-bids being handed out to the top five conference champions. SMU, for example, is on the CFP bubble looking in, but should it defeat Miami in the ACC Championship Game, then that will seal a spot for the Mustangs. Would the committee still elect to send Miami to the playoffs? That scenario holds true with the Big 12 as well, if BYU were to lose in its conference title game, to say Colorado, Colorado would be getting that bid and BYU, assuming they win out in the regular season, would only have one loss. What then?

A scenario not being talked about much, is if Georgia defeats Tennessee this weekend, there could be a safe bet that Georgia will move up in the rankings (currently sitting at 12) and that Tennessee (currently at 7), would drop down. Tennessee has the head to head win over Alabama, which could ultimately lead to Alabama dropping down a spot. If Georgia were to win this game, there would be crazy debates over the placement of these three teams and Ole Miss. Ole Miss and Alabama have the head to head over Georgia, Tennessee would have the head to head win over Alabama, and Georgia would have the head to head against Tennessee. The committee would surely have their work cut out for them.

Alabama has to win out and hope for as little chaos as possible. Sitting not so comfortably at 10, the Crimson Tide can ill afford for teams to be stealing bids and jumping it in the rankings. Kalen DeBoer is doing all he can to put Alabama in a spot where a playoff bid is intact, but it is safe to assume that he and the rest of the team are focused on the game in front of them, and nothing else.