What Does History Say About Alabama's National Title Hopes? Just A Minute

A historic Kenpom trend suggests Bama is currently on the outside of the national championship picture going into the final months of the season.

Jan 29, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Shawn Jones Jr. (5) and Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears (1) reach for a loose ball during the first half at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images / Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Welcome to BamaCentral’s "Just a Minute," a video series featuring BamaCentral's Alabama beat writers. Multiple times a week, the writers will group up or film solo to provide their take on a topic concerning the Crimson Tide or the landscape of college sports.

Watch the above video as BamaCentral's Peyton Davis discusses what history says about Alabama basketball's chances at a program first, national championship as it stands today.

Without question, Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide are collectively trending up going into the final ten games of the regular season. The team is currently the highest scoring unit in the country and have won 12 of their last 13 games going all the way back to the beginning of December.

However, one of the most accurate indicators of who will win the national title currently has the Tide on the outside looking in of the national championship bubble.

Since 2002, every single national championship team has ranked inside the top 57 and 37 of Kenpom offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively.

Currently, the Crimson Tide rank second overall in offensive efficiency, only trending up in that regard; however are currently 45th in defensive efficiency according to Kenpom, putting them just outside of the historical bubble.

There is no question the staff is self aware of this issue, as evident by Oats decision to bench Mark Sears and Cliff Omoruyi last Saturday against the LSU Tigers, but consistency will be key for Bama on that end going forward.

Following the Tide's February 11th game in Austin versus the Texas Longhorns, the team's final seven regular season games are against teams currently ranked inside the top 25.

This makes their efforts even more daunting in trying to improve on that end, but this is not something Oats is new to. The Final Four run last year was defined by the immense improvement on that end compared to the regular season.

With the continued tenacity from Mohammed Diobate setting the tone, and the return of freshman forward, Derrion Reid, the team has all of the makings of a more than capable defensive unit.

It will come down to effort and consistency in order to fully reach the potential that they clearly have.