Alabama's CFP Chances Boil Down to One Thing: All Things CW

Crimson Tide fans will know where they stand after the College Football Playoff selection committee makes a very difficult decision: Should Alabama or Ohio State be No. 5??

The All Things CW notes column by Christopher Walsh will appear in five parts this week, one each day. This is ...

Take 2

This isn't to make the case for the Alabama Crimson Tide to make the College Football Playoff. Nick Saban did that on his own Saturday night after the 49-27 victory against Auburn at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

"We are a good football team and hopefully people will recognize that," he said. 

This also isn't to suggest that the selection committee should have the Crimson Tide in the semifinals at this point. There are still conference championships to be played, and if the four teams at the top of the rankings, which we assume will be Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Southern California, win, they should all be in. 

However, the committee will have a tough decision at No. 5 this week, which will designate the first alternate should one or more of those teams stumble. The top three might be good enough to still get in with a conference championship loss, but probably not the Trojans. 

Both major polls have Ohio State at No. 5, and Alabama at No. 6. 

The computers that were used for the BCS actually have the Buckeyes at No. 4, but one would think that a potential Pac-12 title win could change that. 

So the committee will have Ohio State ahead of Alabama, right?

It's not that clear-cut of a decision, and it's because of the reason we've been harping on for weeks.  

Here are the rankings criteria for the selection committee. The one at the top should jump out at you. 

Rankings criteria

• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head game results
• Results vs. teams in Top 25 rankings
• Results vs. common opponents
• Conference championships

Three of those aren't a factor between Alabama and Ohio State. The two that are are strength of schedule and results vs. teams in the Top 25 rankings. 

Both of those factors favor the Crimson Tide.

2022 Ohio State Schedule, Results

Game, Date, (Rank) Opponent, Outcome

1. Sep 3: (2) Ohio State (5) vs. Notre Dame, W 21-10 
2. Sep 10: (3) Ohio State vs. Arkansas State, W 45-12 
3. Sep 17: (3) Ohio State vs. Toledo, W 77-21
4. Sep 24: (3) Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, W 52-21
5. Oct 1: (3) Ohio State vs. Rutgers, W 49-10 
6. Oct 8: (3) Ohio State at Michigan State, W 49-20
7. Oct 22: (2) Ohio State vs. Iowa, W 54-10
8. Oct 29: (2) Ohio State at (13) Penn State, W 44-31
9. Nov 5: (2) Ohio State at Northwestern, W 21-7
10. Nov 12: (2) Ohio State vs. Indiana, W 56-14
11. Nov 19: (2) Ohio State at Maryland, W 43-30 
12. Nov 26: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Michigan, L 45-23

Ohio State played its first five games at home, including then-No. 5 Notre Dame in its opener. However, the Fighting Irish had a new coaching staff and turned around the subsequent week and lost to Marshall. 

Its four road games were at Michigan State, Penn State, Northwestern and Maryland. Only the Nittany Lions were ranked at the time, No. 13. 

Their combined records this season: 23-25. Granted, 11 of those losses were by the Wildcats, but overall that's still a mediocre schedule.  

There are five teams in the Big Ten that are not bowl eligible and Ohio State played four of them. It also faced Wisconsin, which fired its coach and is 6-6. 

Now compare that to Alabama. 

The Crimson Tide's weakest road opponent was at Texas, and the hype for that game was astronomical (both ESPN and Fox had their pregame shows on site). The Longhorns weren't ranked then, but are now at No. 21. FYI, Notre Dame is at No 19, and remember that Ohio State hosted the Irish.  

Alabama's other road games: No. 20 Arkansas, No. 6 Tennessee, No. 10 LSU, No. 11 Ole Miss. The worst record among those teams is 8-4. 

Their combined records: 43-17. 

Will that be enough to get Alabama above Ohio State? We'll see. This is why Crimson Tide fans should have been rooting against Michigan last week because the case would have been much easier to make against the Wolverines. They've played exactly two ranked teams all season.  

CFP selectors can use a variety of advanced analytics to gauge teams, but those numbers don't play a formal role in the proceedings. Many of them may be asking themselves two things: How much does a 22-point loss at home hurt in this kind of situation? Would Alabama be favored in a game against Ohio State? 

Both are good questions.

How about this one: Is a win over a non-bowl eligible team better than a last-play loss at Tennessee or LSU? Because that's the difference between these teams on paper. 

Basically it'll come down to the judgement of the selectors. If they think Alabama is deserving, Crimson Tide fans sweat out another week hoping for upsets, knowing that a playoff spot would be like playing with house money. 

But if they think Ohio State is the better team, the Buckeyes will get the nod and Alabama can start thinking about its bowl game and next season.  

However, if that happens the committee will be sending an unsettling message that strength of schedule isn't that important any more, after its otherwise been considered a crucial cornerstone of the selection process. The question then becomes did the committee ignore its own guidelines. 

See Also:

Impact of Epic Weekend For Alabama Could be Felt for Years

The Extra Point: Finally, A Season of "Parity" in College Football

Why Strength of Schedule is Alabama's Biggest Playoff Asset

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