All Things CW: In Which Direction Could SEC Expansion Go Next?

The latest on the changing landscape of college football, which former Alabama quarterback in the NFL is expected to have the best year, and lots of odds and ends.

Southern California and UCLA jumping from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten rocked college athletics this week, and no one believes that they'll mark the end of the latest round of leagues reshuffling.

A better word might be earthquake, resulting in a very different landscape centered around the big two conferences. 

The Alliance is dead. The Pac-12 is on life-support. The Big Ten is looking for more because if things stay put the closest league school to the Los Angeles programs is Nebraska. 

It all puts the Southeastern Conference in an interesting position, and obviously considering further expansion on top of the upcoming additions of Oklahoma and Texas. 

If so, though, it probably won't go as most fans expect because above everything else any moves and additions would have to be financially advantageous.

Consider the possibilities geographically:

East 

In terms of competition, the talk on social media and on radio shows about which schools the SEC should target heavily leans toward top-level ACC schools like Clemson, Florida State and Miami. 

However, from the league's point of view they might make the least amount of sense for two important reasons: 

1) The ACC’s media-rights deal is locked in place until 2036. In contrast, the Pac-12’s TV deal ends in 2024, which is why USC and UCLA are acting now. The legal hurdles to get any ACC program out of its Grant of Rights agreement could be significant. 

2) The SEC might not gain enough in terms of added revenue, especially with potential television markets. 

The Sunshine State is already in the SEC footprint with Florida, and similarly in South Carolina, making Clemson essentially a redundancy. At least Miami is a major market, so out of those three programs previously listed it would be the most desirable.

However, should a crack in the ACC emerge, more lucrative option to the SEC could be Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt and Virginia (or Virginia Tech). They would bring the New York (No. 1), Boston (10), Pittsburgh and maybe Philadelphia (26 and 4), and Washington D.C. (9) television markets. 

North Carolina might also be a preferable get in terms of marketing, especially basketball, although that would still partially overlap an existing SEC territory. 

Midwest

Notre Dame is obviously the top prize, and not just because it would bring the Chicago (3) market. The Fighting Irish may be the closest thing to a national brand even though it hasn't won a national championship since the 1988 season.

On face value, the Big Ten has long been considered a good fit, yet Notre Dame has a rich tradition of bucking its overtures. This time already feels different, though, especially since it may have the only elite football program up for grabs.

West 

This is the direction to watch, and in many way makes the most sense in the short term. 

Should the SEC look beyond Texas, where it has the Dallas (5) and Houston (8) secure, the next major markets in that direction geographically are Phoenix (11) and Denver (16), which translates to Arizona State and Colorado. It would also open the door to California.

Consider this option for the SEC: Adding four teams from the Pac-12.  

Phoenix to Seattle, which has been a common trip for years in the Pac-12, is roughly 1,100 miles in the air, and 1,400 miles driving. 

Phoenix to Birmingham is 1,400 miles, just with more time-zone changes.

In college football, more time-zones can be a good thing, because they can help provide more broadcast windows. With the West Coast teams the Big Ten has the ability to offer games at 11 a.m. CT, 2:30, 5, 7:30 and even 10 p.m. if it wants. 

To take the speculation to another level, if the SEC absorbed four Pac-12 programs it could keep the east and west divisions with 10 teams in each. The dividing line could be the Mississippi River. 

The idea is more than plausible.

Hello, Again, Hello ...

The early line on the New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, which should feature the first Crimson Tide quarterback showdown of the NFL season, has Tua Tagovailoa's team favored by three points over Mac Jones. The rematch is scheduled for Week 17, on Jan. 1.

Per SportsBetting.ag, Week 17 and Week 18 are not available yet to too much uncertainty in playoff standings, playing statuses, schedules, etc. 

The only time Jalen Hurts is slated to face either of his teammates is Week 3 of the preseason when the Philadelphia Eagles are at Miami.

Meanwhile, here are some over/under odds for all three quarterbacks:

Jalen Hurts

• Passing yards 3550.5
• TD passes 22.5
• Interceptions 11.5
• Rushing yards 725.5
• Rushing TDs 7.5

Mac Jones

• Passing yards 3800.5
• TD passes 23.5
• Interceptions 12.5

Tua Tagovailoa

• Passing yards 3750.5
• TD Passes 22.5
• Interceptions 14

5 Things That Got Our Attention This Week

Book It!

Oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook once again believe in Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, installing Alabama as the favorite (-141) to win the SEC for potentially the seventh time in the last nine seasons.

Alabama is not only the betting favorite to win the SEC but also is the top choice to win the national championship for the seventh time since 2009.

2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +200 (First)
Betting regular-season win total: 10.5

Although Alabama lost running back Brian Robinson and wide receivers Jameson Williams and John Metchie to the NFL, oddsmakers have the Crimson Tide heavily favored by double-digits in every game this season.

Alabama opens its 2022 campaign as a 38.5-point home favorite over Utah State in Week 1, and is a 14.5-point favorite the following week at Texas.

The Crimson Tide is also 16-point road favorites in Week 5 at Arkansas, 16.5-point home favorites against Texas A&M in Week 6 and 23.5-point home favorites in the annual Iron Bowl against Auburn. Alabama has won six of the last eight clashes.

The Arch Manning Hype Has Only Begun

SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network

With Arch Manning having made a formal commitment to Texas, SportsBetting.ag created some prop bets on his future:

Will Arch Manning be drafted No. 1 overall?

Yes +135; No -175

Will Arch Manning redshirt his freshman year?

Yes +700; No -2000

Will Arch Manning start Game 1 as true freshman?

Yes -200; No +150

Incidentally, Alabama is currently listed at 10.5 for over/under victory total this season. Only three other programs have their over/under in double-digits, with Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State also all at 10.5. 

College Football's Game of Thrones

The Dallas Morning News recently caught up to former Big 12/Big 8 commissioner Chuck Neinas, who admitted that the conference won't be as strong without Oklahoma and Texas, but thinks it'll still be a good league. 

"What is going to screw things up is the TV contract that the Big Ten and SEC are going to have compared to the rest.” 

Neinas also believes that College Football Playoff expansion to 12 teams is a foregone conclusion. 

“The fact that you’ve got to get a unanimous vote is ridiculous. You can’t even get a unanimous vote on adjournment.” 

Asked why, then, he’s so confident expansion to 12 will happen, Neinas says: “That’s what the SEC wants. And the Big Ten, too. Unfortunately, the Big Ten has a new commissioner. If Jim Delany was still there, it’d be done.”

Just hold there a moment ...

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and Ohio athletic director Julie Cromer told Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellenger that the transformation committee’s bid to lift the cap on the number of football coaches on a staff will not be finalized by August, 

Sankey: “We have issues that have lingered for decades. It would be unwise to just flip a switch on some issues in August when you’re going into a competitive season.” 

Sankey also noted that removing staff and scholarship restrictions – if such a removal occurs – would not happen until January. 

“I don’t think it’s a delay. It was out there publicly before we would have put it out there. When outlets report things, they are not always accurate. … If the attitude is we have to solve everything right now, that doesn’t allow for effective decision-making. What goes to the board this week are pretty well-developed frameworks.” 

Regarding continued membership criteria for Division I, Sankey explains there are three critical points that will inform their thinking: moving beyond the status quo; the athlete experience; and the athlete voice. 

“Those three criteria can be met by every current Division I member. The answer to that question is, will there be additional expectations and how will people adapt to that? One of the elements of the charge is direct support to student-athletes.”

Texas is bringing a lot more than football to the SEC

By winning three national championships in the spring, and four overall during the 2021-22 academic year, Texas won its second straight Learfield Director's Cup.

The Longhorns won titles in men's track, men's golf, rowing and women's tennis. It was also runner-up in men's and women's swimming and diving, women's indoor track and field, softball and men's and women's outdoor track and field. 

Stanford captured a trio of national championships: men's gymnastics, women's golf and women's water polo.

Rounding out the top five were Michigan, Ohio State and Florida. 

Overall, as a conference, the SEC led the way with seven teams in the top 25, including Arkansas (No. 7), Kentucky (9), Tennessee (13), LSU (16), Georgia (19), Ole Miss (20), Alabama (22) and Texas A&M (25). 

Oklahoma, which will join the SEC along with Texas, finished 10th. 

Speaking of Predictions ...

Sports Illustrated recently released its Top 25 Reset: How Transfers, Draft Decisions Changed Our Men’s 2022–23 Rankings, and Alabama went from No. 12 in April, to No. 23.

Wrote Kevin Sweeney: "The Crimson Tide’s uneven 2021–22 can be attributed to poor decision-making and three-point shooting, but a talented crop of newcomers could help turn that around this season. Ohio transfer Mark Sears was one of the best point guards on the board, and he’ll be the engine of one of the fastest-paced attacks in the country. Between Sears, Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Bradley, Nate Oats has a deep stable of ballhandlers to work with. Wings like Dominick Welch and Darius Miles also help make this team fairly positionless."

So why the drop? Simple, too many departures, including for the NBA. 

Tide-Bits

• Crimson Tide basketball coach Nate Oats raved about some of his new players during an interview with the Crimson Tide Sports Network tis week, especially freshman forward Brandon Miller. "He’s a guy that I feel like is gonna be in the NBA for a long time. He’s the type of player they’re looking for with that size and skill level. He’s been a great kid. He’s all about Alabama. He’s worked hard."

• The NCAA Softball Rules Committee has proposed the use of a double first base on an experimental basis for the 2022-23 academic year, something Crimson Tide coach Patrick Murphy is big-time favor of in an effort to reduce injuries and collisions at first base. Both teams would have to agree to use the double first base during regular-season spring games or fall competitions played in the nontraditional season. The committee also proposed that all sideline and home run fences constructed of wood, concrete or brick be padded by January 1, 2027. 

• Speaking of softball, the two games of the College World Series and the two games of the Women’s College World Series averaged 1.59 million and 1.58 million viewers, respectively. However, both softball games were blowouts (16-1 and 10-5) and the average length of each baseball game was 3 1/2 hours. 

Did You Notice?

• Ohio State director of athletics Gene Smith had one of the strongest comments about USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten with: "Within four years you’re going to see a transformation that a lot of people really won’t recognize college football. I think you’re gonna see two empire conferences, I really do.” As for what led to the bombshell move, check out Ross Dellenger's USC, UCLA and the Big Ten: How and Why College Sports’ Latest Stunning Move Happened

• While the SEC is still trying to figure out its scheduling after Oklahoma and Texas enter the league, the ACC adopted a 3-5-5 structure “whereby each team will play three primary opponents annually and face the other 10 league teams twice during the four-year cycle, once at home and once on the road. The schedule allows for each team to face all 13 conference opponents home and away at least once during the four-year cycle.”

The new structure goes into effect with the 2023 season, and eliminates the Atlantic and Coastal divisions. The teams with the highest winning percentages will play in the ACC Championship Game. 

• Former LSU coach Ed Orgeron on NIL: "If you want to have success, you better change.”

Christopher Walsh's notes column All things CW appears every week on BamaCentral.