BamaCentral 22 for '22: Is there a Trap Game on Alabama's Schedule?

After the Crimson Tide fell in a trap game at Texas A&M in 2021, today's question poses whether or not there is another opportunity for a stumble this season.

After falling one win short of adding a 19th national title last season, Alabama will look to rebound and take the next step this year. The Crimson Tide returns a loaded roster, including reigning Heisman winner Bryce Young and a rebuilt offense as well as one of the most talented defenses in the Nick Saban era.

Alabama will open its season on Sept. 3 when it hosts Utah State inside Bryant-Denny Stadium. To help pass the time, BamaCentral’s Joey Blackwell, Tony Tsoukalas and Katie Windham will discuss 22 topics and questions concerning the 2022 season.

We continue our ongoing series with today's question: does Alabama have a potential trap game on its schedule this year?

Blackwell's take

Trap games. While they might be fun to watch for neutral fans across college football, they can certainly be a dismal affair should your own team be on the losing end of the contest.

In 2021, No. 1 Alabama football traveled to Bryan-College Station, Texas, where it fell to Texas A&M courtesy of a field goal by the Aggies as the clock expired. The game signified not just the Crimson Tide’s first regular season loss since 2019, but also the first time that head coach Nick Saban had lost to a former assistant.

This year, trap games will certainly be on the radar for both Alabama and its fans alike. When breaking down the schedule, there don’t appear to be too many. However, that’s the beauty of trap games: you can never really see them coming with 100% accuracy.

Concerning the 2022 schedule, one game stands out above the rest as a potential trap game: Oct. 15 and Alabama’s trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee. The Third Saturday in October rivalry has arguably become laughable at this point — at least, in the minds of many Crimson Tide fans — but Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel is slowly but surely building a decent program in Knoxville.

Take a look at the progress. In the 2020 COVID season under Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee finished 3-7. In 2021, the Volunteers managed a 7-6 season and were outlasted in overtime by Purdue in the Music City Bowl. Group that with a top-20 recruiting class alongside a vicious atmosphere inside Neyland Stadium, and the recipe cooks up to be the perfect scenario for a trap game.

In all likelihood, Alabama will make it 16 in a row over Tennessee. That being said, if there is a trap game on the schedule, this writer believes that Oct. 15 is the best date on the schedule for it.

Tsoukalas' take

Trap games are about more than just the opponent. In order to spot them, one must also look at where they fall in the schedule and the possible circumstances surrounding the game.

In 2010, South Carolina pulled off a shock upset by trouncing top-ranked Alabama. While surprising, the writing was on the wall for the Crimson Tide. The game was Alabama’s third straight against a top-20 opponent with each of them coming off of open weeks. Not only did the Crimson Tide roll into Williams-Brice Stadium a bit beaten up, it was facing a completely fresh Gamecocks team

Fatigue can play a big role even if the potential trap-game opponent isn’t coming off an open week. Take the 2012 season for example as Texas A&M upset top-ranked Alabama a week after the Crimson Tide pulled off a dramatic comeback on the road against LSU.

Timing is also important. Ole Miss upset Alabama early in the season in 2014 and 2015, the second of which came as the Crimson Tide was still experimenting with establishing a new starter at quarterback. Teams must also beware of looking ahead to “bigger matchups” the week following trap games while also avoiding emotional hangovers from big wins the weeks preceding them. It can be argued the latter was the case last season when Alabama followed up a 42-21 home win over Ole Miss with a 41-38 loss at Texas A&M.

With all that said, the game that stands out as a trap game for Alabama this year is the Oct. 1 trip to Arkansas. The Razorbacks return starting quarterback K.J. Jefferson who accounted for 348 total yards and three touchdowns against the Crimson Tide in Bryant-Denny Stadium last year. Not only will the Hogs get Alabama at home this season, the Crimson Tide could be caught looking ahead to an emotional matchup against Texas A&M the following week.

Windham's take

Last season, Lane Kiffin infamously told the college football world to get the popcorn ready moments before his team's matchup with the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. Alabama of course jumped out to a 35-0 lead over Ole Miss, and the Rebels were never in the game. 

As Tony pointed out, where the games fall on the schedule is a factor for trap games. This year's game on Nov. 12 marks the latest in the year that Alabama and Ole Miss have matched up since 1915. 

Because the game is so late in schedule, I think it has all the makings of a trap game. It's that time of the season where players are banged up and depth is being tested. It will also be the week after a road trip to Baton Rouge which is often a physical battle in the tranches. 

The Rebels lost Matt Corrall to the NFL Draft, but everyone in Oxford is onboard for Year 3 of the Lane Train fresh off the first 10-win regular season in program history. If Ole Miss has another decent record heading into the Week 11 matchup with the Crimson Tide, the Grove will be rocking and the Rebels will be looking for their first win against Alabama since 2015. 

Nick Saban had never lost to a former assistant until last year, and it happened not just once, but twice. Could Kiffin be the third?

Am I predicting Alabama to lose this game'? No, but I do think it's definitely a game to keep your eye on for the 2022 schedule. 

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