Breaking Down Alabama Basketball's Path to the Final Four

The Crimson Tide has a chance to make program history by making its first-ever Final Four appearance.

Joey Blackwell | Mar 15, 2023

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Alabama Crimson Tide

It's been a long road, but March is finally here. Fresh off of its SEC Tournament title, 1-seed Alabama basketball's journey to the Final Four begins on Thursday.

It hasn't been the easiest of roads for the Crimson Tide, but despite all of the adversity thrown its way — both on and off the court — Alabama managed to finish the season with a 29-5 overall record. The record marks the most wins in a single season in program history, and its No. 1-overall seeding in the NCAA Tournament is another program first.

However, there are still six games separating the Crimson Tide from its first-ever national title in college basketball, and the tough opponents on the hardwood are far from behind them.

When examining the South Region, Alabama has a relatively easy path to the Elite Eight when compared to some of the other 1-seeds in the tournament. That being said, there's high-level competition all around — hence those teams being invited to The Big Dance.

On Thursday afternoon at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Ala., Alabama opens up its tournament run against play-in 16-seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The Islanders defeated Southeast Missouri State 75-71 on Tuesday night, ending the Redhawks' stint in the tournament at one game. However, barring one of the biggest upsets in the tournament in quite some time, the Crimson Tide should advance to the Round of 32 with relative ease.

From there, the journey gets much more complicated.

In the Round of 32, Alabama will play the winner between 8-seed Maryland and 9-seed West Virginia. — by far the best first-round matchup of the South Region. Despite the two states being located geographically right next to each other, there's much less history between the two programs than you would expect — with the last time the two programs playing each other being all the way back in 2015.

Both Maryland and West Virginia have similar philosophies: lock down the opponent on defense. The Terrapins have been relatively successful in that regard, holding opponents to an average of 63.3 points per game. While the Mountaineers' defensive efficiency is much lower — 54th according to KenPom — its offense ranks in the top 15 nationally.

The contest will likely come down to the final few possessions — possibly even free throws — making it difficult to predict who will face the Crimson Tide in the next round.

Should Alabama continue to take care of business, 4-seed Virginia or 5-seed San Diego State would most likely be the Crimson Tide's opponent in the Sweet 16. Don't discount 12-seed Charleston, though. With a 32-3 record this season, the Cougars could quite possibly be this year's Cinderella. That being said, facing the Aztecs and the Cavaliers in back-to-back games would make it absurdly difficult for Charleston to make it to Alabama.

The most likely opponent would be Virginia — but once again, the trip won't be easy. Should Alabama win and move on, it would reach the Elite Eight for just the second time in program history and the first time since 2004.

On the other side of the South Region, three teams emerge above the rest as potential Elite Eight opponents for Alabama: 2-seed Arizona, 3-seed Baylor and 6-seed Creighton. Arizona is the easy favorite, coming off of a Pac-12 title game victory in which it edged out a very good UCLA team. And while Baylor might not be getting the attention that it usually gets when March rolls around, make no mistake: this is a Bears team that can still hang with the best.

Creighton presents a more intriguing scenario for Alabama. The Bluejays are potentially the biggest sleeper of the South Region, and with good reason. Creighton won multiple big games over the season, downing opponents like Texas Tech, Arkansas, Providence and Xavier as well as beating UConn not once, but twice. The Bluejays semifinal exit from the Big East tournament might not be very encouraging, but don't doubt their abilities.

All of that being said, an Alabama-Arizona matchup in the Elite Eight presents the betting favorite. A game between the Crimson Tide — the SEC champions — and the Wildcats — the Pac-12 champions — would certainly be some must-watch college basketball.

NCAA Tournament South Region Schedule

(All times CT)

Tuesday, March 14

Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10) vs. No. 16 Southeast Missouri State (19-16) | 5:40 p.m. | truTV

Thursday, March 16

Birmingham, Ala.

No. 8 Maryland (21-12) vs. No. 9 West Virginia (19-14) | 11:15 a.m. | CBS

No. 1 Alabama (29-5) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi-Southeast Missouri State | 1:45 p.m. | CBS

Orlando, Fla.

No. 4 Virginia (25-7) vs. No. 13 Furman (27-7) | 11:40 a.m. | truTV

No. 5 San Diego State (27-6) vs. No. 12 College of Charleston (31-3) | 2:10 p.m. | truTV

Sacramento, Calif.

No. 7 Missouri (24-9) vs. No. 10 Utah State (26-8) | 12:40 p.m. | TNT

No. 2 Arizona (28-6) vs. No. 15 Princeton (21-8) | 3:10 p.m. | TNT

Friday, March 17

Denver, Colo.

No. 3 Baylor (22-10) vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara (27-7) | 12:30 p.m. | TNT

No. 6 Creighton (21-12) vs. No. 11 North Carolina State (23-10) | 3 p.m. | TNT