Breaking Down Alabama Football Player Projections in the 2021 NFL Draft

ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has a total of six Crimson Tide players going in the first round

MOBILE, Ala. — As seven of Alabama football’s NFL draft hopefuls continue practices for the 2021 Reese’s Senior Bowl at Hancock Whitney Stadium, other annual traditions surrounding the draft also press onward.

One of those often looked forward to is ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and the first iteration of his mock draft. Kiper is one of the most respected analysts of the NFL draft, and on Tuesday Kiper dropped his highly-anticipated preliminary prediction of how he thinks the 2021 NFL Draft will play out on Apr. 29 in Cleveland.

Regarding Alabama players, Kiper has a total of six being picked in the first round. If that comes to fruition, the Crimson Tide will tie Miami in the 2004 draft for the most players from a single team being drafted in the first round.

Kiper has wide receiver DeVonta Smith going second-overall to the New York Jets, making him the highest-drafted player for the Crimson Tide. His second-highest Alabama player is also a wide receiver in Jaylen Waddle, who Kiper has going sixth overall to the Philadelphia Eagles to join former Alabama/Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Outside of the top 10, Kiper has defensive back Patrick Surtain II going next at pick No. 12 to the San Francisco 49ers, followed by quarterback Mac Jones at No. 15 to the New England Patriots. This would put Jones as the fifth quarterback off the board behind Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance.

The second Crimson Tide defender off the board according to Kiper will be defensive tackle Christian Barmore at No. 25 to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

And finally, running back Najee Harris closes out Kiper’s list of Alabama players going in the first round, with Harris being drafted 30th overall by the Buffalo Bills.

One thing surprising about Kiper’s draft is that he does not have any Crimson Tide offensive linemen going in the first round. While it is a draft that is loaded with talent at offensive tackle, Alex Leatherwood is nowhere to be seen despite Kiper having five offensive linemen drafted in the first round. Center Landon Dickerson and Deonte Brown will also no doubt be drafted this April, but it is still somewhat surprising that no Alabama linemen are projected in the first round by Kiper.

Here is a list of what Kiper said regarding each projected Alabama pick, followed by analysis:

No. 2, New York Jets: DeVonta Smith, WR

Alabama Athletics

What Kiper said: "This is where the intrigue in the draft begins. Will the Jets stick with quarterback Sam Darnold for another year, or will they take Zach Wilson or Justin Fields? (Or maybe even trade for Deshaun Watson?) The good news for general manager Joe Douglas and new coach Robert Saleh is that they have three months to figure it out. This is a huge decision, and Douglas and Saleh have to be 100% sure that Wilson or Fields is an upgrade over Darnold. My feeling right now is that yes, Darnold's stats are ugly, but he's only 23 and he has had no offensive talent around him for three years. Do the Jets really want to move on from him and watch him thrive elsewhere? That's why they could give him a one-year audition under Saleh, pick the Heisman Trophy winner at No. 2, and give Darnold one more shot to put all of his talent together. Smith is the true No. 1 target Darnold hasn't had."

Analysis: Smith going as high as second overall is not unlikely given the accolades and attention he was able to gather in his senior season with the Crimson Tide. However, with Watson officially requesting a trade from the Houston Texans, the Jets could be in prime positioning to trade for Watson and take Smith as supporting cast to accompany him. The Miami Dolphins at No. 3 are also a potential landing place for Smith, and with head coach Brian Flores getting ample opportunity this week to interact with Smith this week at the Senior Bowl, both the Jets and the Dolphins remain the frontrunners to pick him in April.

No. 6, Philadelphia Eagles: Jaylen Waddle, WR

T.G. Paschal/BamaCentral

What Kiper said: "The Eagles had a disastrous 4-11-1 season, with quarterback Carson Wentz regressing and getting benched for rookie second-rounder Jalen Hurts. And yes, Wentz was not very good, but his receivers didn't exactly give him much help. The Eagles got only 20 total catches from veterans Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson due to injuries, and 2019 second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside barely got on the field. So even though Philadelphia drafted Jalen Reagor in Round 1 a year ago, I still see this as a hole in the offense. Waddle, one of the fastest prospects in this draft, could be the go-to target in new coach Nick Sirianni's offense. He was one of college football's most electric receivers over the past three seasons, even if he was overshadowed at times by teammates Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith. His ceiling at the next level is as a No. 1 pass-catcher."

Analysis: Hurts and Waddle back together again? While it might sound like a dream, it's quite possible. Wide receiver remains a big hole for the Eagles after a horrific 2020 season. However, if Smith is indeed drafted by the Jets, that leaves an opportunity for the Dolphins to come in and take Waddle. Kiper has the Dolphins drafting Ja'Marr Chase of LSU at No. 3, but given the Dolphins' infatuation with Alabama players as of late (see: Tua Tagovailoa and Raekwon Davis) and after Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban's lengthy midfield conversation with Dolphins GM Chris Grier and Flores, it seems more likely to this writer that Ja'Marr Chase is taken by the Eagles over Waddle, who could already be off the board.

No. 12, San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Surtain II, DB

Alabama Athletics

What Kiper said: "The 49ers will likely undergo big changes on defense this offseason, with defensive coordinator Robert Saleh gone and cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and Jason Verrett all unrestricted free agents. That's why it makes sense to target a corner early. Surtain, my top-ranked corner, could be a starter on Day 1. He had 27 pass breakups and four interceptions over three seasons at Bama. At 6-2, Surtain has the size and speed to play on an island and lock down wideouts. Depending on whether San Francisco can bring back free-agent left tackle Trent Williams, offensive line could also be a position to target."

Analysis: Surtain heading to the 49ers might be Kiper's best prediction for former Alabama players. Surtain is the top corner in the draft, and with the 49ers being the top team with a desperate need for a playmaker at the position, Surtain heading to San Francisco makes a ton of sense. However, offensive line is also a problem for the 49ers, so it would also make sense for them to draft a tackle. Say, a certain Alex Leatherwood?

No. 15, New England Patriots: Mac Jones, QB

Alabama Athletics

What Kiper said: "Like [Todd] McShay, I'm thinking quarterback for the Patriots. They don't pick this high often. Why not go and get your guy and build around him? Now, that changes if Bill Belichick & Co. can make a deal to get a veteran quarterback on the trade market or if Jimmy Garoppolo gets cut by the 49ers. But with Cam Newton unlikely to return to New England, Jones could become a signal-caller to groom for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Jones can make every throw at every level of the field, and he's extremely accurate. Plus, we know that Belichick has drafted plenty of Alabama stars and trusts Nick Saban. Jones will be at the Senior Bowl this week, and I'm expecting him to impress. And yes, if you're keeping count, this makes five quarterbacks in the top 15 picks."

Analysis: Given Saban and Belichick's relationship, this potential pick is a given. However, it is also highly dependent on Jones still being on the board when the Patriots' 15th pick rolls around. As listed earlier in this breakdown, Jones is Kiper's fifth quarterback off the board. While Lawrence, Fields and Wilson going higher than Jones makes a lot of sense, Lance of NDSU being picked ahead of Jones is a slight stretch. If Jones is still on the board when it's New England's turn, he'll be wearing navy blue and silver on Sundays. However, it is quite possible that he could be picked earlier, maybe by the Carolina Panthers who are currently coaching him at the Senior Bowl and are in need of a solid quarterback.

No. 25, Jacksonville Jaguars: Christian Barmore, DT

Alabama Athletics

What Kiper said: "I thought about a receiver or offensive lineman here to help Trevor Lawrence, but this defense is depleted, particularly along the defensive line and in the secondary. How can we get the Jags some help? K'Lavon Chaisson, a first-rounder last year, had only one sack and nine QB hits as a rookie. Taven Bryan, a first-rounder in 2018, has only 3.5 sacks in three seasons. Barmore really came on at the end of the season, with six sacks in his final six games. He was dominant in the two College Football Playoff wins. I love the fit in Jacksonville, where he can be a penetrating 3-technique."

Analysis: With the Jaguars most likely drafting Lawrence at No. 1 overall, the franchise will most likely turn to the defensive side of the ball for its second pick. With most of the top wide receivers already off the board at this point, it makes the most sense. Barmore had a solid season with the Crimson Tide, but his dominating performance against Ohio State skyrocketed his draft stock. Barmore would make an excellent fit on new head coach Urban Meyer's defense. While a defensive pick by the Jaguars might not happen should Meyer opt for a skill player to assist Lawrence, it certainly could.

No. 30, Buffalo Bills: Najee Harris, RB

Alabama Athletics

What Kiper said: "Buffalo's running game was so ineffective this season that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll cooked up a few game plans that required very few runs. Josh Allen was the Bills' leading rusher in the postseason — by 82 yards. They should upgrade with Harris, who had a dominant season for the Crimson Tide and could also help in the passing game. With rookie Zack Moss coming off an ankle injury and Devin Singletary not an every-down player, this is where the Bills can get better immediately in 2021. And we've seen rookies come in right away and make a big impact. Offensive line is a position to watch for Buffalo; I thought about Michigan offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield here."

Analysis: This pick might be Kiper's most surprising, but it also makes perfect sense. The surprising portion is that Kiper has Harris as the first running back off the board all the way down at pick No. 30. Harris is currently battling with Clemson's Travis Etienne for the best running back in the draft, and a strong showing on Saturday in the Senior Bowl could be just what he needs to make his final push. Buffalo, while having successful quarterback play behind Josh Allen, struggled to find any consistency on the ground from its stable. Harris could most definitely revitalize that and make the Bills a solid contender next season. It's a great fit, but Harris being the first running back off the board all the way down at pick No. 30 is a slight stretch.