Coaching Carousel Could Be Bill O'Brien's Wheel of Fortune: All Things CW

The former Houston Texas and Penn State head coach appears to be a hot commodity well before the midway point of the NFL or college seasons.

The All Things CW notes column by Christopher Walsh will appear in five parts this week, one each day leading up to Saturday's game against Texas A&M.

This is ...

Take 2

The Nick Saban Coaching Rehab Facility otherwise known as the Alabama Crimson Tide may be on the verge of another success story, which should surprise absolutely no one, anywhere. 

Next up is offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, whose name is already being bounced around like a roulette table ball as the coaching carousel is already spinning in a cruel fashion this year. 

On Sunday, Paul Chryst was let go at Wisconsin despite having an overall record of 67–26, 43–18 in the Big Ten, with three Big West division titles and was twice named the Big Ten Coach of the Year.

Also getting pick slips have been Scott Frost at Nebraska, Herm Edwards at Arizona State, Geoff Collins from Georgia Tech, and Karl Dorrell at Colorado. 

Chryst was the biggest surprise, though. This was a program that Alabama was paired with to open the 2015 season at AT&T Stadium (won by the eventual national champions, 35-17), but they're set to play a home-and-home series in 2024-25. 

Oddsmakers have O'Brien listed second among the most likely candidates to replace Chryst, only behind interim head coach Jim Leonhard, the defensive coordinator now tasked with trying to salvage the season following a 2-3 start. 

It's one of those places you look at and think "Oh, that could be a good fit," especially since O'Brien was once the head coach at Penn State. He already knows the conference, and had success. 

However, he's also reportedly on Nebraska's short list of top candidates.

Don't overlook Georgia Tech, either.

In college, O'Brien was a defensive back and linebacker at Brown University, where he also served as an assistant coach for two years. His first job outside of his alma matter was at Georgia Tech.

From 1995-2002, he rose in the ranks from graduate assistant to running backs coach, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, and finally assistant head coach.

He left to be Notre Dame's offensive coordinator before the whole George O'Leary fiasco unfolded. 

From 2007-20, O'Brien worked mostly in the NFL, including as the offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots in 2011, and as the head coach of the Houston Texans (2014-20). During that time period he only had one collegiate job, head coach at Penn State 2012-13, replacing Joe Paterno after the Jerry Sandusky child sex abuse scandal. 

Some criticized him for leaving after two years, but O'Brien kept the Nittany Lions afloat when the NCAA was dropping the hammer. 

Specifically, Penn State's wins from 1998-2011 were vacated and the school was levied a $60 million fine. The NCAA also banned the Nittany Lions from the postseason for four years, reduced football scholarships from 25 to 15 for four years, and placed the program on probation for five years.

After being sued, the NCAA later rolled back the penalties in 2015, but in the meantime the NCAA granted immediate eligibility to any player who wanted to transfer out of Happy Valley. 

Even with all that, O’Brien managed to coach Penn State to back-to-back winning seasons, which hasn't been forgotten. 

Which leads to the question that only O'Brien knows the answer to, and could determine his fate: Would he rather coach in the NFL or at a prominent college?

Financially, there's not that much of a difference nowadays. Have you seen some of the buyouts the schools are paying for people to not coach their teams? 

The 2022 coaching buyout tracker is LIT and it's Oct. 2.

Chryst: $19.5M
Frost: $15M
Dorrell: $11.4M
Collins: $11.3M
Edwards: ~$8M 

Total: $67 million.

Last year was believed to be a record at $94 million.

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) October 3, 2022

O'Brien's name came up with some NFL opportunities last year, including with the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Patriots as offensive coordinator, but to no avail. 

“My understanding is that Bill O'Brien would have been amenable to coming back here,” Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer said via NBC Sports Boston. “He was going to let Bill [Belichick] and Nick handle this. And ultimately, Bill Belichick didn't want to bring Bill O'Brien back because he was afraid he might lose him after a year.”

Throwing another wrench into things is that with the early-signing period schools are beginning their coaching searches earlier than ever, and most will be looking to fill their vacancies around December 1, when Alabama could be in in the midst of another title. 

At least that's nothing new for Saban and the Crimson Tide.

However, it's only Week 5 of the NFL season. There will be some coaching vacancies, but probably not for a while even though 22 teams have hired new coaches over the last three years.  

So we're left with only one conclusion, and its the same one that SI's Pat Forde just made with Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin, yet for a very different reason: 

This is probably now a “when” question, not an “if.” 

Christopher Walsh's notes column All Things CW appears every week on BamaCentral.

Take 1: Bryce Young's Injury Hurts Alabama in Ways That Aren't Obvious