Third-Down Numbers a Real Reason for Optimism with Alabama Offense, Bryce Young

All Things CW crunches the numbers and after four games there's already one statistical area that Crimson Tide fans should be keeping a close eye on, third-down conversions.

This week, BamaCentral is breaking apart the All Things CW notes column by Christopher Walsh into five parts, one each day leading up to Saturday's game at Arkansas. We begin with ... 

Take 1

In this case, the numbers don't tell the whole story. 

On third-down conversions, the Alabama Crimson Tide offense is 19-for-43 this season, which works out to 44.19 percent. Normally one might say that's pretty good, but it's eighth in the Southeastern Conference and 51st in the nation. 

That's a bad sign for the 2022 Crimson Tide, right? Especially since Alabama was third in the nation the previous year at .520, and was first in 2020 at .589. 

Sure, Alabama was 7-for-12 on third-down conversions against Vanderbilt last week, but just 2-for-6 when starting quarterback Bryce Young was in the game.

But take a closer look. 

Young connected with Ja'Corey Brooks for a 15-yard gain on third-and-10.

He also hit freshman Kobe Prentice for 15 on third-and-7.

As for the failed conversions, Young and Prentice couldn't connect on another pass, tight end Cameron Latu had a catch short of the first down, and the rest were on rushing plays.  

Young was 3-for-4 passing on third downs, and twice converted third-and-long.

So far this season, Young is 12-for-19 on third downs (63.2 percent), for 117 yards, 6.2 average, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. His longest completion's been for 15 yards.  

His passer rating is 149.6 on third downs. All four of the sacks he's taken have been on third down as well. 

Like one would expect, Young's passer numbers are a significant step down on third downs this season. 

Overall, he's 83-for-121 (68.6 percent) for 1,029 yards, 8.5 average, with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. It adds up to a passer rating of 172.2. 

Last season, when Young won the Heisman, he was 366-for-547 (66.9 percent), for 4,872 yards, 8.9 average, with 47 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He was sacked 39 times, and had a rating of 167.5. 

One of the most remarkable things about Young's sophomore season was that he got better on third downs. His completions percent went up from 68.0 on first downs, and 65.0 on second downs, to 71.7 percent on third downs.

His passer rating went up as well, from 161.2 and 168.7 on first and second downs, respectively, to 205.2 on third downs. 

Now we add the context. Young doesn't have a go-to receiver like John Metchie III, or Jameson Williams, at least not yet. Developing that kind of chemistry takes time, reps, and let's be honest, a lot of talent — usually proven talent. 

Alabama's receiving corps is basically brand new. Young is developing a rapport with not just the starters, but basically everyone. It's sort of like what you hear with defensive backs trying to learn Nick Saban's scheme: Knowing it is one thing, but knowing it to the point you don't have to think about it is another.  

We're starting to see flashes of what happens when things start to click, like with  Brooks. 

Take away the ball that went off his hands and was subsequently picked off by ULM, and the sophomore has had back-to-back impressive games. Against the Commodores he paced the Alabama receivers with six catches for 117 yards. The two scores from 21 and 34 yards away weren't just his first two touchdowns this season, but the latter, was the longest throw/completion Young's had yet this season. 

As the familiarity grows, the play-calling will become more elaborate and complex, and players will start to emerge. This group already has a lot of potential including Jermaine Burton, Prentice, Isaiah Bond, Kendrick Law, Christian Leary and Emmanuel Henderson Jr., while JoJo Earle, Tyler Harrell and Aaron Anderson are all working their way off injuries. 

With that in mind, there are three reasons for some strong optimism:  

1) Young's key overall numbers, meaning completion percentage and passer rating, are already up despite all the turnover on offense. 

2) He's taking fewer sacks. 

3) Third downs, which will be the key moving forward, and what everyone should be looking at statistically. 

The more comfortable Young gets with the receivers, and the more the line protects him, the more he'll be throwing downfield. The question isn't if his third-down numbers will get better, but by how much.

Put that together with the third-down defense, as opponents have converted 11 of 59 opportunities for a success percentage of 18.64, which is second in the nation, and Alabama has its recipe for making another national title run. 

See Also

Don't Look Now, But Alabama Beginning to Find Its 'Hateful" Attitude

Christopher Walsh's notes column All Things CW appears regularly on BamaCentral.