The Extra Point: Alabama's Playoff Hopes Ride on Upsets

The Crimson Tide are going to need help if it hopes to make the playoffs for the eighth time.

The Alabama Crimson Tide has seen more success than any other team in the College Football Playoff era. Alabama has the most appearances (7), most wins (13), and most national championships (3). 

Alabama will need help from other teams if it hopes to make its eighth appearance in the playoffs before next year's expansion. The Crimson Tide have held firm at No. 8 in the committee's rankings this season, and it doesn't appear like the committee will be willing to move up Alabama until some teams in front of them lose. 

Alabama will need four teams in front of them to lose. While that may not seem possible with just two games left in the regular season, there are a couple of scenarios for Alabama to make the playoffs. 

Alabama's playoff chances hinge on the Crimson Tide winning out first and foremost. Alabama has three games remaining before selection Sunday: UT-Chatanooga, at Auburn, and against No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championships game. A win over the two-time defending champions could provide the spark Alabama needs for their jump into the College Football Playoff. That's one team ahead of Alabama that could lose. 

No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan have to play each other in "The Game" at the end of the regular season. The winner would presumably win the Big Ten while also knocking their opponent out of the playoff race. That's a second team ahead of Alabama that will lose. 

If No. 5 Washington and No. 6 Oregon win out, they'll play each other in the Pac-12 Championship game. Oregon lost in Washington by just three points, and the Ducks would come into the game with revenge on their mind. It could be the factor needed for the Ducks to avenge their regular season blemish and knock out another undefeated team, or Washington stamps its claim as one of the four best teams in the nation and locks into a playoff spot. Regardless, that's a third team ahead of the Crimson Tide that will lose. 

The fourth team is where it gets tricky. Florida State has the chance to be an undefeated conference champion, guaranteeing the ACC a playoff spot. The Seminoles aren't on upset watch Saturday hosting North Alabama. They then have to travel to the Swamp to take on Florida, a team that has played well at home but is currently on a three-game losing streak with two top-10 opponents remaining on the schedule. If Florida State handles business there, they would then take on a top-10 Louisville in the ACC championship. 

Texas is giving Alabama problems in the rankings thanks to a head-to-head win over the Crimson Tide in week 2. Texas travels to Iowa to take on the Iowa State Cyclones in what could be a trap game. This is not the first time the Crimson Tide have been caught relying on the Cyclones for help. 

November 18, 2011: Iowa State beats No. 2 Oklahoma State at home, paving the way for Alabama to make the BCS National Championship.

November 18, 2023: Iowa State hosts No. 7 Texas, who Alabama likely needs to lose to make the CFP.

Once again, the Tide needs the Cyclones. pic.twitter.com/P02vcaSr0J

— Blake Byler (@blakebyler45) November 12, 2023

Can Alabama get the help it needs to make the College Football Playoff? Or will they be on the outside looking in once again? 

Sources: Deontae Lawson, Jaylen Key, Ja'Corey Brooks Remain Out Against Chattanooga