What Jalen Milroe's Numbers Indicate Heading into South Florida: All Things CW
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Tua Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns in his return with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts came out on top in his Week 1 matchup against Mac Jones, and No. 1-overall draft selection Bryce Young made his rookie debut with the Carolina Panthers.
That’s four straight former Alabama Crimson Tide quarterbacks who are now starters in the National Football League. It’s a string that's unprecedented in program history (although props to Pat Trammell, Joe Namath, Steve Sloan and Kenny Stabler in the 1960s, especially since two of them are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame), and might be the best of the last 50 years.
Among the contenders for that distinction include the 1982 Miami Hurricanes, which had a quarterback room including Jim Kelly, Vinny Testeverde and Bernie Kosar, along with some guy who got into coaching named Mark Richt. Also, Southern California had Carson Palmer, Matt Leinhart, John David Booty and Mark Sanchez over a decade, from about 1998-2008.
Let's face it, fans of these programs were spoiled by what they enjoyed for years, and started to assume that the next guy would simply be as good, or comparable. But as good as Young was, he didn't start off being that good. Neither did Jones, Tagovailoa or Hurts, who all went on to finish in the top three in Heisman Trophy voting at least once (although Hurts did it at Oklahoma after transferring).
This isn't to say that anyone currently on the Alabama Crimson Tide roster will end up having a similar career to those four quarterbacks, but statistically they can provide a little perspective. We're not talking about any specific attributes, like hitting receivers in stride, decision making, going through progressions or footwork, all of which have stood out about redshirt sophomore Jalen Milroe during this young season (one way or another). This is a pure numbers crunch, about one category especially: passer rating.
Milroe vs. Texas
Passer rating, also known as passing efficiency in college football, is a measure of the performance of passers and their effectiveness. The formula, which incorporates passing yards, touchdown passes, completions, interceptions and attempts, is considered simplistic during this era of analytics, but is still used by the NCAA to determine its annual passing champion.
Against Texas, a 34-24 loss on Saturday, Milroe was 14 of 27 (51.9 percent) for 255 yards, two touchdowns and the first two interceptions of his collegiate career. It didn't factor into his rating, but he also had 44 rushing yards even after subtracting out five sacks.
Milroe’s passer rating was 140.8, a sharp drop from the previous week when he posted a 217.8 against Middle Tennessee after going 13 of 19 (72.2 percent), 194 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
His rating was the lowest rating by an Alabama starting quarterback since ... six games ago, Young’s 105.6 at LSU last season, the loss in overtime, although in fairness he was coming off the sprained shoulder against Arkansas (which also played a part in the Tennessee loss). It was the lowest rating of his career as a Crimson Tide starting quarterback, and the previous week he had a 138.6 against Mississippi State.
Milroe’s rating was actually better than Young’s against Texas last season, 123.6. In Austin last year, the reigning Heisman winner was 27 of 39 (69.2 percent) for 213 yards, and one touchdown, with no turnovers. But no one ever really mentions that because Alabama managed to pull out the 20-19 victory.
Other First Big Tests
Does anyone remember what happened when Hurts made his debut against Southern California? A lost fumble. Granted, he came back and completed 6 of 11 passes for two touchdowns, and ran in two more, but he didn't start the game and the Trojans had no idea that the true freshman would even play. Hurts passed for 118 yards, 71 of which came on one completion.
In many ways, his first real test as a starter came two weeks later, at Ole Miss, and the Rebels under Hugh Freeze had some time to prepare for him. Alabama managed to come back from a three-touchdown deficit to pull out a dramatic 48-43 victory, yet Hurts only threw for 158 yards. His rating? 104.1.
Tagovailoa's first big test was obviously a doozy, coming off the bench in the National Championship Game. Second-and-26 is one of the most famous plays in college football history, however the freshman wasn't exactly lighting up the Bulldogs beforehand. Yes, he rallied the Crimson Tide to the dramatic win, but he was barely completing 50 percent of his passes heading into overtime, had a costly interception, and took a sack on the play before hitting Devonta Smith down the left sideline.
Remember the first big test for Jones as a starter? Two weeks after Tagovailoa suffered a season-ended hip injury at Mississippi State, Alabama was at crazed Jordan-Hare Stadium. Although he played well with 335 passing yards and four touchdowns, the two pick-six touchdowns (one deflecting off a rear end) are what people remember.
The first thing he said afterward was "That's on me." Sound familiar?
First Major Opponent
- Jalen Hurts, at Ole Miss 2016, 19-31 (61.3 percent) 158, 0 TDs, 0 Int., 104.1
- Tua Tagovailoa, vs. Georgia 2017, 14-24 (58.3 percent), 166, 3 TDs, 1 int., 149.4
- Bryce Young, at Florida 2021, 22-35 (62.9 percent) 240, 3 TDs, 0 Int, 148.7
- Mac Jones, at Auburn 2019, 26-39 (66.7percent) 335, 4 TDs, 2 Int., 162.4
Season/Career Passer Ratings
Milroe's 217.8 passer rating was the best by an Alabama quarterback in a season opener since Tagovailoa's 235.4 against Louisville in 2018, which was also his first career start. That night, the then-sophomore finished 12 of 16 for 227 yards and two scores, and ran for 27 yards including a nine-yard touchdown run.
Tagovailoa went on to to be the consensus All-American selection at quarterback (and finished second for the Heisman), but had a 129.5 rating at LSU, 138.5 at Mississippi State, and in the 2018 SEC Championship Game was 10-for-25 (40 percent), 164 yards and one touchdown against Georgia. His rating was 92.3 when Hurts took over and led Alabama to the comeback win.
But let's examine it another way. Milroe has a season passer rating of 171.6, and a career rating of 146.1, albeit with just three starts.
Tagovailoa and Jones have the two best career passing ratings in college football history, at 199.4, and 197.6, respectively. Young's career rating was 165.0. He had a 167.5 rating in 2021 when he won the Heisman and 163.2 last season. During his three years at Alabama, Hurts saw his passer rating dramatically rise from 139.1 as a freshman, to 150.2, and finally 196.7 (when he wasn't starting). His career rating was 162.6.
Bryce Young, 2021-22, 165.0
Mac Jones, 2019-20, 197.6
Tua Tagovailoa 2017-19, 199.4
Jalen Hurts 2016-18, 148.8*
Jake Coker 2014-15, 146.6
Blake Sims 2011-14, 155.2
AJ McCarron 2010-13, 162.5
Greg McElroy 2008-10, 155.4
*Alabama only, does not include season at Oklahoma
Even if Milroe can split the the difference between his career and season ratings, he's on par with a lot of recent Crimson Tide quarterbacks — at least statistically.
Christopher Walsh's notes column All Things CW regularly appears on BamaCentral
See Also:
Nick Saban Feels 'Really Good' About QB Tyler Buchner's Development
Texas the Better Team in Week 2, But Can it be Alabama in the End?