What Latest CFP Rankings Mean for Alabama's Playoff Chances

The Crimson Tide was one spot ahead of Miami in the rankings.

Sep 28, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) scores a touchdown during the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium. / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

There's still a glimmer of hope for Alabama's postseason hopes. The Crimson Tide came in at No. 11 in Tuesday night's College Football Playoff rankings ahead of teams like Miami (10-2), South Carolina (9-3) and Ole Miss (9-3.)

This means the Crimson Tide still has a shot at making the CFP depending on how things shake out in the conference championship games this weekend.

In the 12-team format, there are five automatic bids given to the five highest-rated conference champions, and seven at-large spots to the next seven-highest ranked teams. This means that Alabama will need to be No. 11 in the final rankings to guarantee a spot in the field because one of the conference champions from the Big 12 or a non-Power Four league will likely be ranked below the Crimson Tide, but will get one of the automatic spots.

Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State and Indiana have already sealed up spots in the CFP regardless of what happens this weekend. Add in the automatic bids from the ACC, Big 12 and the other highest-rated conference champion, and that leaves one spot open.

Miami has one less loss than Alabama, but has not played a ranked team all season. Alabama has the No. 10 strength of record and No. 17 strength of schedule according to ESPN's Football Power Index. Miami has the No. 14 strength of record and No. 55 strength of schedule. Alabama has three wins over top-20 teams (Missouri, South Carolina and Georgia.) Miami has none.

Because Alabama was ranked ahead of Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina, that spot could go the Crimson Tide if SMU beats Clemson in the ACC Championship game Saturday night. If Clemson wins, the Tigers will take the automatic spot from the ACC, and SMU could take the last at-large spot, eliminating Alabama from the playoff. However, it is not guaranteed that SMU would take the last spot, but it likely would.

So, Alabama's best chance at making the CFP would be for SMU to beat Clemson this weekend.

The final CFP rankings, which officially determine who will be in the College Football Playoff, will be released Sunday at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN.