Alabama Unmatched at Developing the Best of the Best Recruits

From National Signing Day to draft day, Nick Saban has turned Crimson Tide into Five-Star U.

It’s almost become cliché to describe Alabama as “insert position group” U because there are so many possibilities. 

Some call it Running Back U. Or Linebacker U.

It’s considered Defensive Line U and in the mix for DBU.

Most recently it’s Wide Receiver U, maybe Quarterback U, and definitely Edge-Rusher U.  

Getting players to the National Football League has always been the standard for such claims, and under Nick Saban no other college program has been comparable since he signed on in Tuscaloosa in 2007. 

The coach has had unparalleled success in recruiting, dominating the annual team rankings on National Signing Day, including a run of seven straight years at No. 1.

He effectively used that talent to win six national titles with the Crimson Tide, and Alabama is the preseason No. 1 for the upcoming 2022-23 season.

On the back end, Alabama has had at least one player selected in the first round of 14 straight NFL drafts (2009-present), which tied the NCAA record (Miami 1995-08) for the most consecutive first-round picks. It’s also had the most overall players taken during that span, and at least seven draft picks for 11 straight years (since 2012).

Obviously, those facets go hand in hand even through both recruiting and drafting are inexact sciences. Otherwise, every star prospect would have a stellar college and pro career.

That’s often not the case though. When most coaches are asked about their recruiting classes they often say something like “Ask me in about five years,” Saban included. It’s only then that anyone knows for sure who hit and who missed.

So that’s what we’ve done with the top-rated talents.

This is a snapshot of what every major program has done over a 10-year period in regards to five-star prospects, and the NFL draft. It begins with Saban’s first full draft class, 2008, and runs through 2017, although the numbers for that final year are still a tad incomplete. 

It's far from the complete picture for a variety of reasons, including that very few of the other head coaches are still at the same school. That’s the first disclaimer that needs to be taken into consideration.

Second, it assumes that the recruiting rankings, and the draft evaluations were accurate. We all know that they’re not.

Finally, it’s difficult to draw any firm conclusions regarding Alabama’s ability to develop talent considering the average player on the roster was a four-star prospect to begin with.

That doesn’t mean every five-star talent reached his potential, or every three-star had too much to overcome. Saban’s process has successfully cranked out players who had all sorts of ratings at the high school level. 

“This is all about developing,” Saban said about his recruiting pitch. “'We want to help you develop to be the best player you can be.’

"Some guys respond really well to that and develop very quickly and are able to make an impact. Other guys have a more difficult time with it. But in every case we're going to take the player where he is and try to help him develop.”

The Five-Star Rundown 

For our purposes, and simplicity, the 247Sports composite rankings were used.

That service, like many others, compiles its top tier based on talent evaluations, but also with the number of first-round NFL draft selections in mind. The talent doesn’t always line up that way, and the composite factors in different talent assessments, but between 2008-2017 there were between 26 and 38 five-star players each year.

It seems only logical that each five-star player heading into college would project to be a likely first-round draft pick should he continue to develop and maintain his standing.

But players get injured, make bad choices or don’t continue to develop.

Just because someone is great at one level doesn’t mean he will be at the next.

Also, sometimes the rankings and draft evaluations just miss. How else do you explain Tom Brady lasting until the sixth round in 2000? Or even Derrick Henry falling in No. 45 in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft?

Overall, there were 323 players who were considered consensus five-star talents from 2008-17. Two are still active, so they won’t be included for our purposes, making the total 321.

Out of those 321, 193 were selected in a subsequent NFL draft, which works out to 60.1 percent. That number is actually on the rise, up from approximately 55 percent from the first five years of our designated time period, 2008-12.

Among them, only 67 ended up being first-round selections, or 20.9 percent.

That number is also up. During the first five years the percentage was just 17.0.

Consensus Five-Star Players in the NFL Draft

Recruiting Class	Five-Star Players	Drafted	Drafted Percent	First Round	First Round Percent
2008	28	14	50.0	7	25.0
2009	32	17	53.1	4	12.5
2010	32	17	53.1	6	18.9
2011	30	17	56.7	4	13.3
2012	37	25	67.6	7	18.9
2013	35	21	60.0	8	22.9
2014	33	22	66.7	9	27.3
2015	37	21	56.8	7	33.3
2016	26	17	65.4	7	26.9
2017	33	22	66.7	7	21.2

Generally speaking, those are surprising numbers, and collected before NIL, the transfer portal and the early-signing period dramatically changed college football.

But nothing is guaranteed. 

For example, in those 10 recruiting classes the top-rated player was also the first-overall selection in an NFL draft just once: South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney in 2011 (although the 2018 top player Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence did so as well).

Only three of the other nine were first-round selections, and one was just barely as Ole Miss defensive lineman' Robert Nkemdiche (2013) was the 29th selection in 2016.

Two went undrafted: Georgia defensive tackle Trenton Thompson from the Class of 2015, and UCLA defensive end Jaelan Phillips, who medically retired.

Meanwhile, Saban won his first recruiting title in 2011 and has been on a roll ever since. 

Alabama Five-Star Recruits 2008-17

Signing Class	Five-Star Players	Drafted	First Round
2008	3	1	1
2009	4	4	3
2010	2	1	1
2011	3	2	1
2012	3	2	0
2013	6	5	3
2014	6	4	2
2015	6	5	3
2016	3	2	1
2017	6	4	4
Totals	42	30	19

Alabama’s 42 five-star players signed between 2008-17 were 12 more than any other program in college football.

Among them, 30 players went on to be drafted.

The eye-popping stat is that 19 of them went in the first round.

Among five-star talents, no other program had more than six first-round selections over that same time period.

Alabama also had numerous first-round near-misses including tackles Cam Robinson (No. 34, 2017) and Cyrus Kouandjio (No. 44, 2014, safety Landon Collins (No. 33 2015), running backs T.J. Yeldon (No. 36, 2015) and Henry and defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson (No. 46, 2016). All were top 50, second-round selections,

That’s six more players who could have been first-round selections had things fallen a little differently.

Nevertheless, there's still no comparison. 

Most Five-Stars Recruited/Drafted 2008-17

Program	Five-Star Players	Drafted	Drafted Percent	First Round	First Round Percent
Alabama	42	30-x	71.4	10	45.2
Florida State	30	16	53.3	4	13.3
USC	26	14	53.8	3	11.5
Georgia	24	18-x	75.0	4	16.7
Florida	20	12-x	60	6	30.0
Ohio State	19	13-x	68.4	3	15.8
LSU	18	9	50.0	2	20.0
Texas	13	4	30.8	1	7.7
Clemson	12	10	83.3	4	33.3
Auburn	10	6	60.0	1	10.0
Texas A&M	10	5-x	50.0	2-x	20.0
Notre Dame	9	4	44.4	1	11.1
UCLA	9	4	44.4	1	11.1
Miami	8	6	75.0	0	0.0
Oklahoma	8	3-x	37.5	1-x	12.5
Ole Miss	8	4	50.0	3	37.5
Michigan	7	5	71.4	2	28.6
Tennessee	6	4	66.7	1	16.7
Stanford	6	5	83.3	2	33.3
Oregon	6	4	66.7	1	16.7

[Note: x-includes a five-star player or players still drafted after transferring elsewhere]

"Kids know what they're going to get at Alabama," said John Garica Jr., Director of SI All-American at Sports Illustrated.

"What's scary now is Alabama is getting into that transfer market too)."

This isn’t to suggest that a program like Ohio State doesn’t develop players. It had five first-round draft selections in 2016 (Joey Bosa, Ezekial Elliott, Eli Apple, Taylor Decker and Darron Lee), and three more in 2017 (Marshon Lattimore, Malik Hooker and Gareon Conley).

None was considered a consensus five-star recruit, but obviously each prospered. 

LSU also had a monstrous 2020 draft class after winning the national title, with 14 selections, yet none of the five first-round selections were five-star players the Tigers had recruited. 

The same was true with Georgia’s most recent draft class, which included 15 selections. Just one of the five first-round picks had been rated a consensus five-star talent.

Last year, Jimbo Fisher landed eight five-star talents at Texas A&M, an impressive accomplishment that he never came close to reaching at Florida State. However, he's having a difficult time duplicating that success in the signing Class of 2023. 

The bottom line is that other coaches and programs have flashed, but haven't been near as consistent as Saban and Alabama.

The Tide Keeps Rolling

Of course, the flip side to that is coaches who don’t land big-name talent usually don’t last very long.

The Florida schools may be the best example. Since the Class of 2018, Florida and Florida State have combined to sign exactly two five-star prospects, and both were by the Gators (defensive tackle Gervon Dexter, 2020; cornerback Jason Marshall, 2021).

Florida does have running back Lorenzo Lingard, one of three five-star recruits landed by Miami since 2018 (safety James Williams and defensive lineman Leonard Taylor the others) but the Gators didn't sign him out of high school. 

Nevertheless, the only Sunshine State school with a team in the recent preseason Top 25 is Miami. New head coach Mario Cristobal has been recruiting like crazy, especially in South Florida, while Billy Napier is starting to build something with the Gators. The former had some NIL help, the latter has as many support staffers as players.

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Both are Saban disciples, along with Fisher (who may not want to admit it judging by some of the things said between them during this past offseason) and obviously Kirby Smart at Georgia.  

Taking a peek ahead, Alabama signed two consensus five-star players in 2018 and three in 2019, out of which two players are already in the NFL as first-round picks, cornerback Patrick Surtain II and offensive tackle Evan Neal.

Saban landed four more five-star talents in 2020 including quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Will Anderson Jr., seven in 2021, three last year, and has four five-star commitments for the top-rated Class of 2023. He's in the running for more.

Overall, Alabama's still averaging approximately four five-star additions per year, and Saban doesn't appear close to slowing down in any respect. 

"I get asked this a lot, and it's just hard to see that this point," Garcia said in 2021. "Five years ago I would get questions about other coaches asking recruits about how long do they think Nick Saban will be there. It was about the only move or weapon to use against Alabama on the trail.

"Years later we're still asking the same thing." 

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